Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel513 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Osasuna—%
Draw—%
Elche—%
Weather (Iruñea)
Forecast from 21 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Osasuna and Elche. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Elche
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Osasuna
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Elche
−0.74
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.98xG against1.72
-
Alert
Osasuna
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Elche
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Osasuna
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Osasuna
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Elche
−0.74
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.98xG against1.72
-
Alert
Elche
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
OsasunaElche
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
50
AttackIn forecast
39
50
DefenceIn forecast
51
31
Form indexContext
56
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaElche
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.89
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.85
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
67%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
10.78
ShotsContext
11.00
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
40%
On target shareContext
38%
7.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
64%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.22
Shots allowedContext
14.89
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.89
BlocksContext
3.63
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
51%
Save rateContext
60%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
390
PassesContext
478
316
Accurate passesContext
408
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.64
14.67
FoulsContext
13.44
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
10.20
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
41%
On target shareContext
38%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
64%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.83
12.50
Shots allowedContext
14.40
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
3.70
BlocksContext
3.44
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
53%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
373
PassesContext
463
298
Accurate passesContext
391
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.65
15.20
FoulsContext
14.10
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
LLDLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km773 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
Elche
DLWDD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel513 km275 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Nov | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 513 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 773 km | 275 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Last XI · not confirmed
13Aitor Fernández(G)
23Abel Bretones
22F. Boyomo
24Catena
19V. Rosier
16Moi Gómez
8Iker Muñoz
7Moncayola
21J. Dubasin
17A. Budimir
14Rubén García
Elche
Last XI · not confirmed
1M. Dituro(G)
11Germán Valera
3R. Revivo
23Víctor Chust
47J. Morcillo
2Buba Sangaré
18T. Lemar
8Marc Aguado
12Gonzalo Villar
21Lucas Cepeda
24A. Osorio
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Elche
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 0.60
Elche · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | W 2–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–2 H | W 3–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Osasuna wins6 draws0 Elche wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.88
Over 2.525%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 13 Feb 2026Elche0–0Osasuna
- 25 Sep 2025Osasuna1–1Elche
- 8 Apr 2023Osasuna2–1Elche
- 22 Jan 2023Elche1–1Osasuna
- 1 May 2022Elche1–1Osasuna
- 29 Nov 2021Osasuna1–1Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.89 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 3.11 | |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 56% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 67% | |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Osasuna | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.23 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 4.44 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Osasuna | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 8.60 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.80 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Osasuna9 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Elche9 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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