Bayer Leverkusen vs 1.FC Köln

Bundesliga Gameweek 26 Sat, Mar 13 · 14:30 BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played WDWWW

VS— Compare

1.FC Köln 12th · 7 pts · 6 played LDLWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel11 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3

Real contextStrength only

Bayer Leverkusen—%

Draw—%

1.FC Köln—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Leverkusen)

Forecast from 26 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Bayer Leverkusen

1.FC Köln

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

79 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

87 AttackIn forecast 36

79 DefenceIn forecast 36

94 Form indexContext 26

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—

Defense risk—

1.FC Köln

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayer Leverkusen

1.FC Köln

2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83

2.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.73

+0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

100% Scored inContext 83%

33% Clean sheetsContext 0%

19.67 ShotsContext 16.33

6.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33

31% On target shareContext 33%

13.83 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

71% Box shareContext 71%

14% ConversionContext 8%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.00

11.50 Shots allowedContext 15.67

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33

2.67 BlocksContext 3.83

2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

52% Save rateContext 71%

58% PossessionIn forecast 48%

539 PassesContext 417

470 Accurate passesContext 344

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.33 FoulsContext 11.17

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.33

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.83

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

2.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

100% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 0%

18.50 ShotsContext 15.30

6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

36% On target shareContext 35%

13.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

71% Box shareContext 73%

13% ConversionContext 9%

1.89 OffsidesContext 1.17

12.20 Shots allowedContext 14.50

4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

3.10 BlocksContext 3.80

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

63% Save rateContext 60%

58% PossessionIn forecast 47%

537 PassesContext 414

470 Accurate passesContext 343

88% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.69

11.90 FoulsContext 9.80

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen WWWWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,277 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts

1.FC Köln LDLWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel11 km129 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected

L16 OctA · Eintracht Frankfurt0–11.0 xPts
W11 OctH · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.7 xPts
L19 SepA · Hamburger SV1–21.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bayer Leverkusen	1.FC Köln
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Mar	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	11 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,277 km	129 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct

1M. Flekken(G)

3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah

6E. Fernández 24Aleix García

9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby

14P. Schick

1.FC Köln Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A) 0–1, 16 Oct

1M. Schwäbe(G)

3B. Sosa 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 2Joel Schmied 28S. Sebulonsen

37L. Maina 5T. Krauß 8Í. Jóhannesson

10S. El Mala 30M. Bülter

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bayer Leverkusen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

1.FC Köln Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 0.33

1.FC Köln · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Bayer Leverkusen wins1 draws2 1.FC Köln wins

Goals per game1.75 – 0.88 Over 2.563% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 13%

25 Apr 20261.FC Köln1–2Bayer Leverkusen
13 Dec 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–01.FC Köln
3 Mar 20241.FC Köln0–2Bayer Leverkusen
8 Oct 2023Bayer Leverkusen3–01.FC Köln
5 May 2023Bayer Leverkusen1–21.FC Köln
9 Nov 20221.FC Köln1–2Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bayer Leverkusen	1.FC Köln
Scored per game	2.67	1.33
Conceded per game	1.50	1.83
Match goals	4.17	3.17
Over 1.5	100%	83%
Over 2.5	83%	67%
Over 3.5	67%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	83%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	0%	17%
Games	6	6

	Bayer Leverkusen	1.FC Köln
Scored per game	2.40	1.30
Conceded per game	1.30	2.30
Match goals	3.70	3.60
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	80%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	90%
Clean sheets	40%	0%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bayer Leverkusen	1.FC Köln	League
Corners
Corners won	7.33	6.00
Corners conceded	3.33	6.33
Match total	10.66	12.33	10.72
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	83% 5/6
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	1.33	1.83
Opponent cards	2.17	1.67
Match total	3.50	3.50	3.51
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6
Over 4.5	33% 2/6	0% 0/6

	Bayer Leverkusen	1.FC Köln	League
Corners
Corners won	6.70	5.78
Corners conceded	3.50	5.44
Match total	10.20	11.22	10.72
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.80
Opponent cards	1.80	1.70
Match total	3.00	3.50	3.51
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.