Bundesliga Gameweek 26 Sat, Mar 13 · 14:30 Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
SC Freiburg 3rd · 13 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel640 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Union Berlin—%
Draw—%
SC Freiburg—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Berlin)

Forecast from 26 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union Berlin and SC Freiburg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Union BerlinSC Freiburg
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
39 Current StrengthIn forecast 64
42 AttackIn forecast 63
41 DefenceIn forecast 73
38 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union Berlin

Attack—
Defense risk—

SC Freiburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union BerlinSC Freiburg
0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
2.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.87
2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.63
50% Scored inContext 100%
33% Clean sheetsContext 33%
12.83 ShotsContext 16.00
6.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
35% On target shareContext 33%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
64% Box shareContext 63%
7% ConversionContext 16%
2.60 OffsidesContext 1.33
15.67 Shots allowedContext 9.17
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00
4.20 BlocksContext 3.33
4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25
56% Save rateContext 64%
44% PossessionIn forecast 53%
359 PassesContext 465
268 Accurate passesContext 390
75% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.58 Team ratingContext 7.06
11.67 FoulsContext 9.50
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.17
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.88
70% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
12.30 ShotsContext 13.50
5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
38% On target shareContext 37%
8.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.70
63% Box shareContext 64%
12% ConversionContext 18%
2.43 OffsidesContext 1.71
14.50 Shots allowedContext 11.00
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
4.13 BlocksContext 3.80
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63
57% Save rateContext 60%
45% PossessionIn forecast 53%
372 PassesContext 445
285 Accurate passesContext 373
77% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.98
10.30 FoulsContext 10.80
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union Berlin
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,801 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
  • L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts
SC Freiburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel640 km554 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 78 · 10 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Bayer Leverkusen1–20.8 xPts
  • W11 OctH · FC Schalke 042–12.0 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt2–21.5 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–02.1 xPts
  • W5 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–01.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union Berlin SC Freiburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 20Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Mar7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km640 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,801 km554 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 51 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke
SC Freiburg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Bayer Leverkusen (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu
16Y. Engelhardt 8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant 42Keisuke Goto 19J. Beste
31I. Matanović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union Berlin Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
SC Freiburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Union Berlin · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
SC Freiburg · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentUnion BerlinSC Freiburg
FC Schalke 04 L 1–3 H W 2–1 H
Bayer Leverkusen L 0–4 A L 1–2 A
Eintracht Frankfurt D 3–3 H D 2–2 A
Points1 of 9 · 0.33 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Union Berlin wins4 draws1 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game1.40 – 0.90 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 40%
  • 15 Mar 2026SC Freiburg0–1Union Berlin
  • 1 Nov 2025Union Berlin0–0SC Freiburg
  • 30 Mar 2025SC Freiburg1–2Union Berlin
  • 8 Nov 2024Union Berlin0–0SC Freiburg
  • 18 May 2024Union Berlin2–1SC Freiburg
  • 13 Jan 2024SC Freiburg0–0Union Berlin

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union BerlinSC FreiburgForecast
Scored per game 0.832.50
Conceded per game 2.831.00
Match goals 3.673.50
Over 1.5 67%83%
Over 2.5 67%83%
Over 3.5 67%50%
Both teams scored 33%67%
Clean sheets 33%33%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games66
Union BerlinSC FreiburgForecast
Scored per game 1.502.40
Conceded per game 2.301.40
Match goals 3.803.80
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 80%90%
Over 3.5 80%60%
Both teams scored 50%70%
Clean sheets 30%20%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union BerlinSC FreiburgLeague
Corners
Corners won4.005.17
Corners conceded5.833.50
Match total9.838.6710.72
Over 8.583% 5/650% 3/6
Over 9.567% 4/617% 1/6
Over 10.533% 2/617% 1/6
Cards
Cards2.501.83
Opponent cards2.001.83
Match total4.503.663.51
Over 3.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 4.533% 2/633% 2/6
Union BerlinSC FreiburgLeague
Corners
Corners won4.104.10
Corners conceded6.504.00
Match total10.608.1010.72
Over 8.580% 8/1050% 5/10
Over 9.570% 7/1020% 2/10
Over 10.550% 5/1020% 2/10
Cards
Cards2.201.40
Opponent cards1.902.20
Match total4.103.603.51
Over 3.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
4 61-75
4 2 76-90
SC Freiburg6 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 46-60
61-75
4 2 76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
5 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 6 61-75
9 2 76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
8 2 16-30
3 4 31-45
4 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München FSV Mainz 05 Mar 1314:30 Werder Bremen VfB Stuttgart Mar 1314:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Hamburger SV Mar 1314:30 Bayer Leverkusen 1.FC Köln Mar 1314:30 Eintracht Frankfurt SC Paderborn 07 Mar 1314:30 FC Augsburg RB Leipzig Mar 1314:30 FC Schalke 04 1899 Hoffenheim Mar 1314:30 Union Berlin SC Freiburg Mar 1314:30 SV Elversberg Borussia Dortmund Mar 1314:30