Bundesliga Gameweek 25 Sat, Mar 6 · 14:30 Cologne Stadium, Köln
1.FC Köln 12th · 7 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel479 kmRest days3.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
1.FC Köln—%
Draw—%
Union Berlin—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Köln)

Forecast from 19 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for 1.FC Köln and Union Berlin. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

1.FC KölnUnion Berlin
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 39
36 AttackIn forecast 42
36 DefenceIn forecast 41
26 Form indexContext 38
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1.FC Köln

Attack—
Defense risk—

Union Berlin

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1.FC KölnUnion Berlin
1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83
1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.83
1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.17
1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.09
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
83% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 33%
16.33 ShotsContext 12.83
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.75
33% On target shareContext 35%
11.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.00
71% Box shareContext 64%
8% ConversionContext 7%
1.00 OffsidesContext 2.60
15.67 Shots allowedContext 15.67
6.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
3.83 BlocksContext 4.20
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.40
71% Save rateContext 56%
48% PossessionIn forecast 44%
417 PassesContext 359
344 Accurate passesContext 268
83% Pass accuracyContext 75%
6.76 Team ratingContext 6.58
11.17 FoulsContext 11.67
11.33 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
1.83 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
1.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
90% Scored inContext 70%
0% Clean sheetsContext 30%
15.30 ShotsContext 12.30
5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88
35% On target shareContext 38%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.30
73% Box shareContext 63%
9% ConversionContext 12%
1.17 OffsidesContext 2.43
14.50 Shots allowedContext 14.50
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90
3.80 BlocksContext 4.13
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
60% Save rateContext 57%
47% PossessionIn forecast 45%
414 PassesContext 372
343 Accurate passesContext 285
83% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.69 Team ratingContext 6.74
9.80 FoulsContext 10.30
9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1.FC Köln
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km219 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
  • L16 OctA · Eintracht Frankfurt0–11.0 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.7 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Hamburger SV1–21.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
  • L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts
Union Berlin
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel479 km1,976 km in 14d
Schedule load26%Moderate
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
  • L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
1.FC Köln Union Berlin
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Moderate · 26
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 2 Mar3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 2 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km479 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways219 km1,976 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 52 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1.FC Köln Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A) 0–1, 16 Oct
1M. Schwäbe(G)
3B. Sosa 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 2Joel Schmied 28S. Sebulonsen
37L. Maina 5T. Krauß 8Í. Jóhannesson
10S. El Mala 30M. Bülter
Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
1.FC Köln Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Union Berlin Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

1.FC Köln · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.33
Union Berlin · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
0-0-2
Scored
0.00
Conceded
5.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent1.FC KölnUnion Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt L 0–1 A D 3–3 H
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 1.FC Köln wins3 draws4 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game0.88 – 1.38 Over 2.538% Both scored38% Clean sheets13% · 63%
  • 2 May 2026Union Berlin2–21.FC Köln
  • 20 Dec 20251.FC Köln0–1Union Berlin
  • 11 May 20241.FC Köln3–2Union Berlin
  • 20 Dec 2023Union Berlin2–01.FC Köln
  • 4 Mar 2023Union Berlin0–01.FC Köln
  • 11 Sep 20221.FC Köln0–1Union Berlin

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

1.FC KölnUnion BerlinForecast
Scored per game 1.330.83
Conceded per game 1.832.83
Match goals 3.173.67
Over 1.5 83%67%
Over 2.5 67%67%
Over 3.5 33%67%
Both teams scored 83%33%
Clean sheets 0%33%
Failed to score 17%50%
Games66
1.FC KölnUnion BerlinForecast
Scored per game 1.301.50
Conceded per game 2.302.30
Match goals 3.603.80
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 50%80%
Both teams scored 90%50%
Clean sheets 0%30%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

1.FC KölnUnion BerlinLeague
Corners
Corners won6.004.00
Corners conceded6.335.83
Match total12.339.8310.72
Over 8.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 9.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 10.567% 4/633% 2/6
Cards
Cards1.832.50
Opponent cards1.672.00
Match total3.504.503.51
Over 3.567% 4/683% 5/6
Over 4.50% 0/633% 2/6
1.FC KölnUnion BerlinLeague
Corners
Corners won5.784.10
Corners conceded5.446.50
Match total11.2210.6010.72
Over 8.578% 7/980% 8/10
Over 9.578% 7/970% 7/10
Over 10.544% 4/950% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.802.20
Opponent cards1.701.90
Match total3.504.103.51
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.510% 1/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

1.FC Köln6 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 2 76-90
Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
4 61-75
4 2 76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
4 4 76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
5 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 6 61-75
9 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
SC Freiburg FC Augsburg Mar 614:30 FSV Mainz 05 SV Elversberg Mar 614:30 Borussia Dortmund Bayern München Mar 614:30 1899 Hoffenheim Werder Bremen Mar 614:30 VfB Stuttgart Bayer Leverkusen Mar 614:30 RB Leipzig FC Schalke 04 Mar 614:30 Hamburger SV Eintracht Frankfurt Mar 614:30 SC Paderborn 07 Borussia Mönchengladbach Mar 614:30 1.FC Köln Union Berlin Mar 614:30