Bundesliga Gameweek 26 Sat, Mar 13 · 14:30 wohninvest WESERSTADION, Bremen
Werder Bremen 8th · 9 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
VfB Stuttgart 13th · 6 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel478 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Werder Bremen—%
Draw—%
VfB Stuttgart—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Bremen)

Forecast from 26 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Werder BremenVfB Stuttgart
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
43 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
56 AttackIn forecast 70
45 DefenceIn forecast 58
71 Form indexContext 46
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Werder Bremen

Attack—
Defense risk—

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Werder BremenVfB Stuttgart
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67
1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.91
1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.38
+0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.58
100% Scored inContext 67%
0% Clean sheetsContext 17%
14.00 ShotsContext 17.00
6.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.83
49% On target shareContext 34%
9.67 Shots in the boxContext 12.17
66% Box shareContext 72%
14% ConversionContext 8%
2.17 OffsidesContext 1.60
15.33 Shots allowedContext 18.17
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33
4.50 BlocksContext 5.00
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
61% Save rateContext 63%
47% PossessionIn forecast 55%
476 PassesContext 506
400 Accurate passesContext 422
84% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.96 Team ratingContext 7.02
12.00 FoulsContext 9.83
11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17
1.17 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.91
1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.01
80% Scored inContext 80%
0% Clean sheetsContext 20%
12.70 ShotsContext 16.80
5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20
42% On target shareContext 37%
8.44 Shots in the boxContext 11.80
62% Box shareContext 70%
11% ConversionContext 11%
2.44 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.70 Shots allowedContext 15.50
5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
4.40 BlocksContext 5.22
3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
66% Save rateContext 65%
46% PossessionIn forecast 55%
458 PassesContext 502
380 Accurate passesContext 422
83% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.93 Team ratingContext 7.07
10.30 FoulsContext 11.10
8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Werder Bremen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,152 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 71 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · SC Paderborn 072–21.7 xPts
  • D9 OctA · Borussia Dortmund2–20.5 xPts
  • W19 SepH · FC Augsburg3–21.2 xPts
  • D12 SepA · 1.FC Köln1–11.1 xPts
  • W5 SepH · RB Leipzig3–10.8 xPts
VfB Stuttgart
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel478 km662 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Hamburger SV0–11.8 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Slovan Bratislava3–02.1 xPts
  • W10 OctA · SC Paderborn 072–01.6 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Borussia Dortmund0–11.2 xPts
  • L12 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Werder Bremen VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Mar7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km478 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,152 km662 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 51 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Werder Bremen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Paderborn 07 (H) 2–2, 17 Oct
1K. Hein(G)
2O. Deman 32M. Friedl 5A. Pieper 13Arthur
44Y. Regeer 15L. Reis
17M. Grüll 20Chuky 18E. Dinkçi
10N. Füllkrug
VfB Stuttgart Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Hamburger SV (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
41D. Seimen(G)
3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling 26D. Undav 11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Werder Bremen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
VfB Stuttgart Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Werder Bremen · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.67
Conceded
1.67
VfB Stuttgart · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentWerder BremenVfB Stuttgart
SC Paderborn 07 D 2–2 H W 2–0 A
Borussia Dortmund D 2–2 A L 0–1 H
1.FC Köln D 1–1 A W 4–1 H
Points3 of 9 · 1.00 per game6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Werder Bremen wins3 draws2 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game1.38 – 1.63 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 25%
  • 26 Apr 2026VfB Stuttgart1–1Werder Bremen
  • 14 Dec 2025Werder Bremen0–4VfB Stuttgart
  • 13 Apr 2025VfB Stuttgart1–2Werder Bremen
  • 30 Nov 2024Werder Bremen2–2VfB Stuttgart
  • 21 Apr 2024Werder Bremen2–1VfB Stuttgart
  • 2 Dec 2023VfB Stuttgart2–0Werder Bremen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Werder BremenVfB StuttgartForecast
Scored per game 2.001.33
Conceded per game 2.001.67
Match goals 4.003.00
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 83%50%
Over 3.5 83%33%
Both teams scored 100%50%
Clean sheets 0%17%
Failed to score 0%33%
Games66
Werder BremenVfB StuttgartForecast
Scored per game 1.401.90
Conceded per game 1.901.40
Match goals 3.303.30
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 60%70%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 80%60%
Clean sheets 0%20%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Werder BremenVfB StuttgartLeague
Corners
Corners won3.676.67
Corners conceded5.836.00
Match total9.5012.6710.72
Over 8.567% 4/683% 5/6
Over 9.550% 3/683% 5/6
Over 10.550% 3/683% 5/6
Cards
Cards1.171.00
Opponent cards1.332.33
Match total2.503.333.51
Over 3.517% 1/650% 3/6
Over 4.50% 0/617% 1/6
Werder BremenVfB StuttgartLeague
Corners
Corners won3.906.30
Corners conceded6.405.40
Match total10.3011.7010.72
Over 8.580% 8/1090% 9/10
Over 9.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 10.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.201.40
Opponent cards1.002.10
Match total2.203.503.51
Over 3.520% 2/1050% 5/10
Over 4.50% 0/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Werder Bremen6 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
1 31-45
1 3 46-60
4 61-75
6 3 76-90
VfB Stuttgart6 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
1 1 0-15
1 6 16-30
2 31-45
1 4 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 4 76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München FSV Mainz 05 Mar 1314:30 Werder Bremen VfB Stuttgart Mar 1314:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Hamburger SV Mar 1314:30 Bayer Leverkusen 1.FC Köln Mar 1314:30 Eintracht Frankfurt SC Paderborn 07 Mar 1314:30 FC Augsburg RB Leipzig Mar 1314:30 FC Schalke 04 1899 Hoffenheim Mar 1314:30 Union Berlin SC Freiburg Mar 1314:30 SV Elversberg Borussia Dortmund Mar 1314:30