Bayer Leverkusen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayer Leverkusen
3rd · 23 pts · 11 played
WWLWW
1–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund
5th · 22 pts · 11 played
LWWDD
Bayer Leverkusen47.2%fair odds 2.12
Draw24.6%fair odds 4.06
Borussia Dortmund28.2%fair odds 3.55
Expected goals1.74 – 1.30total 3.04
Likeliest score1–111.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayer Leverkusen ↓ · Borussia Dortmund → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayer Leverkusen goals, columns Borussia Dortmund goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%8.78
- 2–19.4%10.63
- 1–07.7%12.92
- 2–07.2%13.83
- 1–27.0%14.20
- 2–26.1%16.33
- 0–15.6%17.71
- 3–15.5%18.33
- 0–05.4%18.68
- 3–04.2%23.86
Winning margin
11.2%
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+
fair 8.90
14.5%
Bayer Leverkusen by 2
fair 6.90
21.5%
Bayer Leverkusen by 1
fair 4.66
24.6%
Draw
fair 4.06
15.9%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 6.29
8.1%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 12.33
4.2%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 24.04
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Bayer Leverkusen goals
18%0
31%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
Borussia Dortmund goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 47.2% | 45.8% | +1.3 pp |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.3% | -1.7 pp |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 28.2% | 27.8% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.6% | 51.5% | +7.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.6% | 55.2% | +5.4 pp |
| Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen | 1.74 | 1.57 | +0.17 |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 1.30 | 1.17 | +0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayer Leverkusen win47.2%2.12
- Draw24.6%4.06
- Borussia Dortmund win28.2%3.55
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw71.8%1.39
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or Borussia Dortmund75.4%1.33
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw52.8%1.89
- Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen62.6%1.60
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund37.4%2.67
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.581.3%1.23
- Over 2.558.6%1.71
- Over 3.536.2%2.76
- Over 4.519.2%5.22
- Under 1.518.7%5.34
- Under 2.541.4%2.41
- Under 3.563.8%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes60.6%1.65
- No39.4%2.54
- Yes and over 2.549.2%2.03
- Bayer Leverkusen win and yes25.3%3.95
- Draw and yes19.3%5.18
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes16.0%6.26
Team goals
- Bayer Leverkusen over 0.582.4%1.21
- Bayer Leverkusen over 1.551.9%1.93
- Bayer Leverkusen over 2.525.3%3.95
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.572.8%1.37
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.537.4%2.68
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.514.3%6.98
- Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet27.2%3.67
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet17.6%5.69
- Bayer Leverkusen win to nil21.9%4.57
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil12.2%8.19
Handicap
- Bayer Leverkusen −1.525.7%3.89
- Bayer Leverkusen −2.511.2%8.90
- Borussia Dortmund +1.574.3%1.35
- Borussia Dortmund +2.588.8%1.13
- Borussia Dortmund −1.512.3%8.15
- Bayer Leverkusen +1.587.7%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored104
Favourite won58.7%
Avg chance given to result44.3%
1X2 Brier0.537
Over 2.5 called right62.5%
BTTS called right56.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 38.1% | 46.7% |
| 40–50% | 32 | 45.1% | 43.8% |
| 50–60% | 26 | 54.7% | 57.7% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 65.5% | 84.2% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 74.5% | 70.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 90.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 86 of 104 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5149 | 0.5266 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.3% | 44.2% |
| Favourite won | 61.6% | 61.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 86 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 104 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.