Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
3rd · 23 pts · 11 played
WWLWW
1–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund
5th · 22 pts · 11 played
LWWDD
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Bayer Leverkusen had 7.1 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 7.1 and had to travel 63 km.
Away travel63 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Bayer Leverkusen47%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund28%
Bayer Leverkusen45%
Draw27%
Borussia Dortmund28%
Bayer Leverkusen46%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund29%
Bayer Leverkusen39%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund35%
Bayer Leverkusen46%
Draw26%
Borussia Dortmund28%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 43
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenBorussia Dortmund
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
78
Current StrengthIn forecast
81
87
AttackIn forecast
76
79
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenBorussia Dortmund
2.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.73
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
+0.78
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
91%
Scored inContext
100%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
55%
13.18
ShotsContext
13.00
5.09
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
39%
On target shareContext
34%
8.36
Shots in the boxContext
8.73
63%
Box shareContext
68%
19%
ConversionContext
13%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.82
Shots allowedContext
9.36
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
2.70
BlocksContext
2.50
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
69%
Save rateContext
74%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
602
PassesContext
518
537
Accurate passesContext
444
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.36
FoulsContext
11.36
11.09
Fouls sufferedContext
10.82
2.09
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
90%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.50
ShotsContext
13.10
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
31%
On target shareContext
34%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
69%
Box shareContext
63%
18%
ConversionContext
16%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.10
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.80
BlocksContext
3.25
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
75%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
578
PassesContext
502
519
Accurate passesContext
429
90%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.93
8.50
FoulsContext
11.90
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km608 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Dortmund
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel63 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 63 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 608 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
5L. Badé
8R. Andrich
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
30I. Maza
7J. Hofmann
19E. Poku
10M. Tillman
14P. Schick
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
28A. Anselmino
24D. Svensson
20M. Sabitzer
8F. Nmecha
26J. Ryerson
10J. Brandt
27K. Adeyemi
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Borussia Dortmund-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.67
Borussia Dortmund · Away
1.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 6–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–3 A | W 2–0 A |
| Union Berlin | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 15 of 18 · 2.50 per game | 13 of 18 · 2.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Bayer Leverkusen wins2 draws4 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game1.88 – 2.13
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 11 May 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–4Borussia Dortmund
- 10 Jan 2025Borussia Dortmund2–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 21 Apr 2024Borussia Dortmund1–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 3 Dec 2023Bayer Leverkusen1–1Borussia Dortmund
- 29 Jan 2023Bayer Leverkusen0–2Borussia Dortmund
- 6 Aug 2022Borussia Dortmund1–0Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.45 | 1.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 3.82 | 2.64 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 36% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 45% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 55% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 0% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 2.30 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.45 | 4.09 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 9.27 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 6/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 4/11 | 18% 2/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.91 | 1.82 | |
| Match total | 5.18 | 3.55 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 7/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 5/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 9.11 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.30 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.92
Red cards0.16league 0.20
Cards 5+37%league 40%
Fouls23.6league 21.7
Penalties0.26league 0.34
Home wins49%league 44%
Bayer Leverkusen5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.3.2 · 3.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L8 Mar 25H · Werder Bremen0–24
- W14 Jan 25H · FSV Mainz 051–02
- L27 May 23A · VfL Bochum0–36
- L29 Jan 23H · Borussia Dortmund0–22
- D17 Sep 22H · Werder Bremen1–12
Borussia Dortmund6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D12 Apr 25A · Bayern München2–20
- L26 Oct 24A · FC Augsburg1–23
- W21 May 23A · FC Augsburg3–03
- W29 Jan 23A · Bayer Leverkusen2–04
- W12 Aug 22A · SC Freiburg3–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen11 games · scored 27 · conceded 15
6
0-15
7
2
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Borussia Dortmund11 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
8
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 23 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
5
6
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
8
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
