Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 39 pts · 22 played
WWDWL
1–1Full time
FSV Mainz 05
13th · 22 pts · 23 played
WWWLD
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FSV Mainz 05. Bayer Leverkusen had 7 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 7.8 and had to travel 148 km.
Away travel148 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Bayer Leverkusen57%
Draw24%
FSV Mainz 0519%
Bayer Leverkusen62%
Draw22%
FSV Mainz 0516%
Bayer Leverkusen58%
Draw24%
FSV Mainz 0518%
Bayer Leverkusen49%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0525%
Bayer Leverkusen55%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0520%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 101
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 05
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
78
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
87
AttackIn forecast
68
79
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 05
1.95
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
82%
Scored inContext
61%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
13.18
ShotsContext
10.91
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.64
34%
On target shareContext
32%
7.91
Shots in the boxContext
8.68
59%
Box shareContext
74%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.60
11.64
Shots allowedContext
14.74
4.76
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.13
3.11
BlocksContext
4.14
3.48
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
73%
Save rateContext
67%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
611
PassesContext
364
544
Accurate passesContext
272
89%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.78
8.77
FoulsContext
10.78
10.59
Fouls sufferedContext
10.22
2.09
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
0.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
60%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.10
ShotsContext
11.80
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
34%
On target shareContext
42%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
54%
Box shareContext
77%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.56
OffsidesContext
2.22
10.40
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.56
BlocksContext
3.60
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
87%
Save rateContext
73%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
632
PassesContext
351
554
Accurate passesContext
260
88%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.85
7.50
FoulsContext
9.10
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km944 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FSV Mainz 05
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel148 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
FSV Mainz 05 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 148 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 944 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
28J. Blaswich(G)
12E. Tapsoba
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
25E. Palacios
6E. Fernández
13Arthur
19E. Poku
7J. Hofmann
14P. Schick
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
33D. Batz(G)
48K. Potulski
4S. Posch
31D. Kohr
2P. Mwene
7J. Lee
6K. Sano
8P. Nebel
30S. Widmer
23S. Becker
20P. Tietz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- FSV Mainz 05+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
2.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-3
- Scored
- 2.18
- Conceded
- 0.91
FSV Mainz 05 · Away
0.82points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-6
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 2.18
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–4 H | L 1–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 6–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 36 of 63 · 1.71 per game | 21 of 60 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
6 Bayer Leverkusen wins1 draws2 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game2.22 – 1.33
Over 2.578%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets44% · 0%
- 18 Oct 2025FSV Mainz 053–4Bayer Leverkusen
- 17 May 2025FSV Mainz 052–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 14 Jan 2025Bayer Leverkusen1–0FSV Mainz 05
- 23 Feb 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–1FSV Mainz 05
- 30 Sep 2023FSV Mainz 050–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 19 Feb 2023Bayer Leverkusen2–3FSV Mainz 05
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.95 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.27 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 3.23 | 2.78 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 52% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 57% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 39% | |
| Games | 22 | 23 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.95 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.05 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 9.34 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 15/22 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 13/22 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 8/22 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 2.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.77 | 1.78 | |
| Match total | 4.95 | 4.30 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 14/22 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 11/22 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 9.30 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.00 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 101 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.66league 3.79
Red cards0.20league 0.17
Cards 5+34%league 39%
Fouls22.1league 20.6
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins53%league 46%
Bayer Leverkusen9 with this referee
Record7-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- W5 Apr 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–00
- W10 Jan 25A · Borussia Dortmund3–22
- W21 Dec 24H · SC Freiburg5–11
- W3 Mar 24A · 1.FC Köln2–02
- W19 Mar 23H · Bayern München2–12
FSV Mainz 057 with this referee
Record3-0-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L24 Aug 25H · 1.FC Köln0–12
- W10 May 25A · VfL Bochum4–10
- W25 Jan 25H · VfB Stuttgart2–04
- W11 May 24H · Borussia Dortmund3–02
- L3 Dec 23H · SC Freiburg0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen22 games · scored 43 · conceded 28
8
4
0-15
8
5
16-30
11
9
31-45
5
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
FSV Mainz 0523 games · scored 26 · conceded 38
2
9
0-15
4
4
16-30
6
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
6
2
61-75
5
12
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 6
3
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
