Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
3rd · 29 pts · 15 played
WLLWW
1–4Full time
VfB Stuttgart
6th · 26 pts · 15 played
DLLWD
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 66). Bayer Leverkusen had 21 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 21.1 and had to travel 295 km.
Away travel295 kmRest days21 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Bayer Leverkusen58%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart20%
Bayer Leverkusen56%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart20%
Bayer Leverkusen58%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart20%
Bayer Leverkusen50%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart26%
Bayer Leverkusen56%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart20%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 115
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenVfB Stuttgart
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
78
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
87
AttackIn forecast
70
79
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenVfB Stuttgart
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
87%
Scored inContext
87%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.00
ShotsContext
15.13
5.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.27
36%
On target shareContext
35%
9.07
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
65%
Box shareContext
64%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.36
OffsidesContext
2.43
11.47
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.92
BlocksContext
3.13
3.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.31
70%
Save rateContext
73%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
604
PassesContext
509
540
Accurate passesContext
431
89%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.07
FoulsContext
10.47
10.47
Fouls sufferedContext
12.27
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.87
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+0.70
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.20
ShotsContext
14.80
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
35%
On target shareContext
35%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
69%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
1.14
OffsidesContext
2.63
12.80
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.75
BlocksContext
3.30
4.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
82%
Save rateContext
66%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
577
PassesContext
495
517
Accurate passesContext
419
90%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.83
7.00
FoulsContext
11.50
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel295 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 21.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 295 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
44J. Belocian
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
6E. Fernández
24Aleix García
13Arthur
23N. Tella
10M. Tillman
11M. Terrier
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
3R. Hendriks
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
10C. Führich
28N. Nartey
18J. Leweling
26D. Undav
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
2.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-2
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 6–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 A | L 0–5 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Union Berlin | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 3–3 A | W 4–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 26 of 42 · 1.86 per game | 26 of 42 · 1.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Bayer Leverkusen wins4 draws0 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game2.13 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 16 Mar 2025VfB Stuttgart3–4Bayer Leverkusen
- 1 Nov 2024Bayer Leverkusen0–0VfB Stuttgart
- 27 Apr 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–2VfB Stuttgart
- 10 Dec 2023VfB Stuttgart1–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 14 May 2023VfB Stuttgart1–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 12 Nov 2022Bayer Leverkusen2–0VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 3.53 | 3.13 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 73% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 53% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.80 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 9.93 | 9.65 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 11/15 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 10/15 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 7/15 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 5.13 | 3.86 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 9/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 7/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 11.67 | 7.66 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 89% 8/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.80 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 115 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.70league 3.88
Red cards0.16league 0.21
Cards 5+54%league 41%
Fouls21.7league 21.1
Penalties0.30league 0.32
Home wins45%league 44%
Bayer Leverkusen11 with this referee
Record5-5-1
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D21 Sep 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–14
- W1 Mar 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt4–11
- W14 Dec 24A · FC Augsburg2–00
- D28 Sep 24A · Bayern München1–13
- D27 Apr 24H · VfB Stuttgart2–24
VfB Stuttgart9 with this referee
Record3-2-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against3 · 2
- W26 Oct 25H · FSV Mainz 052–13
- W18 Jan 25H · SC Freiburg4–05
- L10 Nov 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–32
- D27 Apr 24A · Bayer Leverkusen2–23
- D31 Mar 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim3–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen15 games · scored 33 · conceded 20
6
1
0-15
7
3
16-30
8
7
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart15 games · scored 25 · conceded 22
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
9
9
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
8
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
