Bayer Leverkusen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayer Leverkusen
3rd · 29 pts · 15 played
WLLWW
1–4Full time
VfB Stuttgart
6th · 26 pts · 15 played
DLLWD
Bayer Leverkusen57.7%fair odds 1.73
Draw22.3%fair odds 4.49
VfB Stuttgart20.0%fair odds 5.00
Expected goals2.02 – 1.12total 3.14
Likeliest score1–110.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayer Leverkusen ↓ · VfB Stuttgart → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayer Leverkusen goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%9.71
- 2–19.9%10.11
- 2–08.8%11.32
- 1–08.2%12.17
- 3–16.7%15.00
- 3–06.0%16.79
- 2–25.5%18.06
- 1–25.5%18.26
- 0–04.8%20.68
- 0–14.3%23.16
Winning margin
17.4%
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+
fair 5.75
17.7%
Bayer Leverkusen by 2
fair 5.65
22.6%
Bayer Leverkusen by 1
fair 4.42
22.3%
Draw
fair 4.49
12.3%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 8.13
5.4%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 18.43
2.3%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 43.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
Bayer Leverkusen goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
VfB Stuttgart goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 57.7% | 55.7% | +2.0 pp |
| Draw | 22.3% | 24.2% | -1.9 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 20.0% | 20.1% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 52.9% | +7.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.0% | 53.1% | +5.8 pp |
| Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen | 2.02 | 1.80 | +0.22 |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 1.12 | 0.99 | +0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayer Leverkusen win57.7%1.73
- Draw22.3%4.49
- VfB Stuttgart win20.0%5.00
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw80.0%1.25
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or VfB Stuttgart77.7%1.29
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw42.3%2.36
- Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen74.3%1.35
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart25.7%3.89
Goals
- Over 0.595.2%1.05
- Over 1.582.6%1.21
- Over 2.560.8%1.64
- Over 3.538.5%2.60
- Over 4.520.9%4.78
- Under 1.517.4%5.76
- Under 2.539.2%2.55
- Under 3.561.5%1.63
Both teams to score
- Yes59.0%1.70
- No41.0%2.44
- Yes and over 2.548.7%2.05
- Bayer Leverkusen win and yes29.9%3.34
- Draw and yes17.4%5.73
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes11.6%8.62
Team goals
- Bayer Leverkusen over 0.586.8%1.15
- Bayer Leverkusen over 1.560.0%1.67
- Bayer Leverkusen over 2.532.9%3.04
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.567.4%1.48
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.530.8%3.24
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.510.4%9.65
- Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet32.6%3.06
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet13.2%7.56
- Bayer Leverkusen win to nil27.8%3.60
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil8.4%11.91
Handicap
- Bayer Leverkusen −1.535.1%2.85
- Bayer Leverkusen −2.517.4%5.75
- VfB Stuttgart +1.564.9%1.54
- VfB Stuttgart +2.582.6%1.21
- VfB Stuttgart −1.57.7%12.98
- Bayer Leverkusen +1.592.3%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored139
Favourite won54.7%
Avg chance given to result42.6%
1X2 Brier0.567
Over 2.5 called right61.9%
BTTS called right56.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 45 | 45.0% | 37.8% |
| 50–60% | 35 | 54.9% | 54.3% |
| 60–70% | 23 | 65.0% | 78.3% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 74.0% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 87.0% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 120 of 139 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5551 | 0.5555 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.2% | 42.6% |
| Favourite won | 56.7% | 55.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 120 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 139 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.