Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayern München
1st · 57 pts · 22 played
WLDWW
3–2Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 31 pts · 22 played
DLLDW
Bayern München85.2%fair odds 1.17
Draw9.8%fair odds 10.22
Eintracht Frankfurt5.0%fair odds 20.05
Expected goals3.41 – 0.81total 4.22
Likeliest score3–09.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayern München ↓ · Eintracht Frankfurt → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns Eintracht Frankfurt goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–09.7%10.29
- 2–08.5%11.71
- 4–08.3%12.07
- 3–17.9%12.70
- 2–16.9%14.45
- 4–16.7%14.89
- 5–05.7%17.68
- 1–04.8%20.88
- 5–14.6%21.81
- 1–14.3%23.42
Winning margin
49.8%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 2.01
19.7%
Bayern München by 2
fair 5.08
15.7%
Bayern München by 1
fair 6.35
9.8%
Draw
fair 10.22
3.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 27.97
1.1%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 90.02
0.3%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 331.59
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
6%1
13%2
18%3
19%4
41%5+
Bayern München goals
3%0
11%1
19%2
22%3
44%4+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München win | 85.2% | 82.0% | +3.2 pp |
| Draw | 9.8% | 12.0% | -2.3 pp |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 5.0% | 5.9% | -0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 79.3% | 71.8% | +7.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.9% | 49.7% | +4.2 pp |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 3.41 | 2.99 | +0.43 |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.81 | 0.74 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayern München win85.2%1.17
- Draw9.8%10.22
- Eintracht Frankfurt win5.0%20.05
- Double chance Bayern München or draw95.0%1.05
- Double chance Bayern München or Eintracht Frankfurt90.2%1.11
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw14.8%6.77
- Draw no bet Bayern München94.5%1.06
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt5.5%18.09
Goals
- Over 0.598.3%1.02
- Over 1.592.6%1.08
- Over 2.579.3%1.26
- Over 3.560.9%1.64
- Over 4.541.4%2.41
- Under 1.57.4%13.44
- Under 2.520.7%4.82
- Under 3.539.1%2.55
Both teams to score
- Yes53.9%1.85
- No46.1%2.17
- Yes and over 2.549.7%2.01
- Bayern München win and yes42.4%2.36
- Draw and yes8.1%12.34
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes3.4%29.66
Team goals
- Bayern München over 0.596.7%1.03
- Bayern München over 1.585.5%1.17
- Bayern München over 2.566.2%1.51
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.555.5%1.80
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.519.5%5.13
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.54.9%20.43
- Bayern München clean sheet44.5%2.25
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet3.3%30.33
- Bayern München win to nil42.8%2.34
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil1.6%61.88
Handicap
- Bayern München −1.569.5%1.44
- Bayern München −2.549.8%2.01
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.530.5%3.28
- Eintracht Frankfurt +2.550.2%1.99
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.51.4%70.80
- Bayern München +1.598.6%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored198
Favourite won57.6%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.556
Over 2.5 called right62.6%
BTTS called right56.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 38.2% | 42.3% |
| 40–50% | 60 | 45.1% | 45.0% |
| 50–60% | 56 | 55.3% | 60.7% |
| 60–70% | 31 | 64.7% | 74.2% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 74.3% | 76.5% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 85.8% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 178 of 198 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5481 | 0.5428 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.9% | 43.5% |
| Favourite won | 59.0% | 59.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 178 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SV60·21·19
- ✗RB Leipzig 2–2 VfL Wolfsburg64·20·16
- ✓FC Augsburg 1–0 1. FC Heidenheim57·23·20
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 3–1 1.FC Köln67·19·14
- ✓Hamburger SV 3–2 Union Berlin41·26·33
- ✓Eintracht Frankfurt 3–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach45·27·28
- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 4–0 FC St. Pauli73·17·10
- ✓1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 SC Freiburg46·25·30
- ✓Werder Bremen 0–3 Bayern München11·16·73
- ✓Borussia Dortmund 4–0 FSV Mainz 0557·22·21
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 198 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.