Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayern München
1st · 57 pts · 22 played
WLDWW
3–2Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 31 pts · 22 played
DLLDW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 54). Absences weigh more on Eintracht Frankfurt. Bayern München had 7 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 7 and had to travel 304 km.
Away travel304 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Bayern München85%
Draw10%
Eintracht Frankfurt5%
Bayern München79%
Draw14%
Eintracht Frankfurt7%
Bayern München84%
Draw10%
Eintracht Frankfurt6%
Bayern München80%
Draw13%
Eintracht Frankfurt8%
Bayern München82%
Draw12%
Eintracht Frankfurt6%
Over 2.5 79%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Reichel
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 53
Team strength
Bayern MünchenEintracht Frankfurt
93
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
96
AttackIn forecast
54
90
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern MünchenEintracht Frankfurt
3.73
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.09
2.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+1.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.75
100%
Scored inContext
91%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
18.27
ShotsContext
11.36
8.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.41
46%
On target shareContext
39%
12.73
Shots in the boxContext
7.86
70%
Box shareContext
69%
20%
ConversionContext
18%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.86
9.59
Shots allowedContext
12.00
2.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.62
3.33
BlocksContext
2.76
1.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.55
70%
Save rateContext
54%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
695
PassesContext
478
627
Accurate passesContext
397
90%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.19
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.05
FoulsContext
10.18
8.32
Fouls sufferedContext
9.64
1.82
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
2.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
100%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.10
ShotsContext
8.40
8.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
51%
On target shareContext
48%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
70%
Box shareContext
74%
21%
ConversionContext
20%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.80
Shots allowedContext
13.10
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.88
BlocksContext
3.89
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
72%
Save rateContext
60%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
683
PassesContext
443
616
Accurate passesContext
363
90%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.18
Team ratingContext
6.68
8.10
FoulsContext
11.20
7.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,165 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel304 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 304 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,165 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
40J. Urbig(G)
19A. Davies
3M. Kim
2D. Upamecano
44J. Stanišić
45A. Pavlović
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
10J. Musiala
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
40Kauã Santos(G)
5A. Amenda
15E. Skhiri
34P. Collins
21N. Brown
6O. Højlund
16H. Larsson
29Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab
19J. Bahoya
20R. Doan
18M. Dahoud
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
2.55points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-1
- Scored
- 4.09
- Conceded
- 0.91
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.27points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-3
- Scored
- 2.18
- Conceded
- 2.55
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Bayern München | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 AW 4–0 H | D 3–3 AW 4–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A | L 1–3 HW 3–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H | L 0–6 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 A | W 4–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 8–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 4–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 5–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 6–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Union Berlin | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 3–0 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 A | W 3–0 HW 6–4 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| Points | 54 of 63 · 2.57 per game | 31 of 63 · 1.48 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Bayern München wins2 draws2 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game2.44 – 1.44
Over 2.578%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 4 Oct 2025Eintracht Frankfurt0–3Bayern München
- 23 Feb 2025Bayern München4–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 6 Oct 2024Eintracht Frankfurt3–3Bayern München
- 27 Apr 2024Bayern München2–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 9 Dec 2023Eintracht Frankfurt5–1Bayern München
- 28 Jan 2023Bayern München1–1Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.73 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 2.09 | |
| Match goals | 4.59 | 4.09 | 4.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 68% | 79% |
| Over 3.5 | 73% | 59% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 73% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 9% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Bayern München | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 4.80 | 3.90 | 4.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 70% | 79% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.95 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.65 | 4.05 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 8.35 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 12/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 11/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 7/20 | 25% 5/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 1.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.68 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 11/22 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 8/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Bayern München | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.89 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 8.78 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Reichel Germany · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 3.74
Red cards0.09league 0.18
Cards 5+40%league 38%
Fouls24.4league 20.7
Penalties0.26league 0.36
Home wins43%league 46%
Bayern München4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W11 Jan 26H · VfL Wolfsburg8–10
- W18 Jan 25H · VfL Wolfsburg3–22
- W14 Sep 24A · Holstein Kiel6–11
- W16 Mar 24A · SV Darmstadt 985–20
Eintracht Frankfurt2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 Sep 22H · VfL Wolfsburg0–12
- L21 Jan 22H · Arminia Bielefeld0–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München22 games · scored 82 · conceded 19
6
3
0-15
15
3
16-30
15
4
31-45
8
2
46-60
13
2
61-75
25
5
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt22 games · scored 44 · conceded 46
4
7
0-15
9
5
16-30
9
6
31-45
9
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
8
15
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 35 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
7
1
46-60
6
1
61-75
10
2
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 17 · conceded 22
3
2
0-15
4
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
9
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
