Bologna vs Atalanta – 7 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 19 Wed, Jan 7 · 17:30 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna 7th · 26 pts · 17 played LDLDL

0–2Full time

Atalanta 8th · 25 pts · 18 played LWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 58). Bologna had 2.9 days of rest, Atalanta 3.9 and had to travel 187 km.

Away travel187 kmRest days2.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Bologna38%

Draw28%

Atalanta34%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.23

Bologna38%

Draw27%

Atalanta35%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.30

Bologna38%

Draw28%

Atalanta34%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.23

Bologna31%

Draw28%

Atalanta41%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.38

Bologna38%

Draw27%

Atalanta35%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.30

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 68

Team strength

Bologna

Atalanta

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

35 AttackIn forecast 48

48 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

Atalanta

1.47 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.06

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

76% Scored inContext 78%

35% Clean sheetsContext 28%

13.18 ShotsContext 14.33

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.69

32% On target shareContext 29%

8.41 Shots in the boxContext 9.22

63% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.54 OffsidesContext 2.25

10.35 Shots allowedContext 10.44

3.94 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.94

3.07 BlocksContext 3.00

3.07 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

74% Save rateContext 75%

56% PossessionIn forecast 57%

423 PassesContext 488

351 Accurate passesContext 419

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.88

14.35 FoulsContext 10.67

14.53 Fouls sufferedContext 10.28

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.56

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 17 and 18 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.64

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.20 ShotsContext 14.50

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

34% On target shareContext 29%

10.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

67% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.13

10.00 Shots allowedContext 10.10

4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

2.67 BlocksContext 2.89

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

75% Save rateContext 68%

52% PossessionIn forecast 56%

411 PassesContext 493

338 Accurate passesContext 420

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.90

13.70 FoulsContext 10.80

14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km401 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atalanta

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel187 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	Atalanta
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Jan	3.9Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	187 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	401 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13F. Ravaglia(G)

33Juan Miranda 14T. Heggem 41M. Vitík 20N. Zortea

19L. Ferguson 8R. Freuler

28N. Cambiaghi 80G. Fabbian 7R. Orsolini

24T. Dallinga

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

69H. Ahanor 19B. Djimsiti 42G. Scalvini

47L. Bernasconi 13Éderson 15M. de Roon 77D. Zappacosta

59N. Zalewski 17C. De Ketelaere

90N. Krstović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Absences are shown before kick-off

Atalanta Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Atalanta+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home 1.75points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-2
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 0.75

Atalanta · Away 1.13points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-3
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 17 this season

Opponent	Bologna	Atalanta
Inter	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 H
Sassuolo	D 1–1 H	L 0–3 H
Juventus	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Lazio	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 H
Cremonese	L 1–3 H	D 1–1 A
Udinese	W 3–0 A	L 0–1 A
Napoli	W 2–0 H	L 1–3 A
Parma	W 3–1 A	D 1–1 A
Torino	D 0–0 H	W 3–0 A
Fiorentina	D 2–2 A	W 2–0 H
Cagliari	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 H
Pisa	W 4–0 H	D 1–1 H
Lecce	D 2–2 A	W 4–1 H
Genoa	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 A
AC Milan	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Como	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
AS Roma	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
Points	26 of 51 · 1.53 per game	25 of 51 · 1.47 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Bologna wins2 draws3 Atalanta wins

Goals per game0.88 – 0.88 Over 2.525% Both scored38% Clean sheets38% · 38%

13 Apr 2025Atalanta2–0Bologna
28 Sep 2024Bologna1–1Atalanta
3 Mar 2024Atalanta1–2Bologna
23 Dec 2023Bologna1–0Atalanta
8 Apr 2023Atalanta0–2Bologna
9 Jan 2023Bologna1–2Atalanta

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.47	1.17
Conceded per game	1.00	1.06
Match goals	2.47	2.22	2.53
Over 1.5	71%	72%
Over 2.5	47%	33%	46%
Over 3.5	35%	17%
Both teams scored	47%	56%	52%
Clean sheets	35%	28%
Failed to score	24%	22%
Games	17	18

	Bologna	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.90
Conceded per game	1.10	1.30
Match goals	2.60	2.20	2.53
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	46%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	4.82	6.06
Corners conceded	4.12	4.12
Match total	8.94	10.18	8.84
Over 8.5	53% 9/17	71% 12/17
Over 9.5	41% 7/17	53% 9/17
Over 10.5	29% 5/17	35% 6/17
Cards
Cards	2.12	1.61
Opponent cards	2.65	1.50
Match total	4.77	3.11	4.01
Over 3.5	76% 13/17	50% 9/18
Over 4.5	65% 11/17	0% 0/18

	Bologna	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	5.00
Corners conceded	5.00	4.60
Match total	9.89	9.60	8.84
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.10
Opponent cards	2.30	1.60
Match total	4.20	2.70	4.01
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 68 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.09league 3.88

Red cards0.19league 0.17

Cards 5+49%league 37%

Fouls26.2league 25.8

Penalties0.41league 0.30

Home wins35%league 39%

Bologna4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W29 Mar 25A · Venezia1–01
D6 Oct 24H · Parma0–01
D27 Aug 23A · Juventus1–11
L9 Jan 23H · Atalanta1–23

Atalanta7 with this referee

Record4-0-3 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.6 Pens for · against3 · 1

L22 Nov 25A · Napoli1–32
W10 Nov 24H · Udinese2–11
W4 Jun 23H · Monza5–21
W9 Jan 23A · Bologna2–12
W1 Sep 22H · Torino3–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.