Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 42 pts · 19 played
WDWWW
3–2Full time
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 13 pts · 19 played
LDLDL
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 27). Absences weigh more on Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund had 8 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 8.1 and had to travel 369 km.
Away travel369 kmRest days8 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Borussia Dortmund80%
Draw13%
1. FC Heidenheim7%
Borussia Dortmund78%
Draw15%
1. FC Heidenheim7%
Borussia Dortmund80%
Draw13%
1. FC Heidenheim7%
Borussia Dortmund74%
Draw16%
1. FC Heidenheim10%
Borussia Dortmund78%
Draw14%
1. FC Heidenheim7%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 61
Team strength
Borussia Dortmund1. FC Heidenheim
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
81
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
76
AttackIn forecast
48
79
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia Dortmund1. FC Heidenheim
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
0.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.21
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
100%
Scored inContext
63%
53%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.16
ShotsContext
11.00
4.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
38%
On target shareContext
31%
8.63
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
72%
Box shareContext
65%
17%
ConversionContext
8%
1.77
OffsidesContext
1.93
10.00
Shots allowedContext
15.16
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.63
2.71
BlocksContext
3.79
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.37
75%
Save rateContext
60%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
492
PassesContext
357
417
Accurate passesContext
278
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.95
FoulsContext
10.21
10.58
Fouls sufferedContext
10.16
1.84
Yellow cardsContext
1.68
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.60
ShotsContext
10.60
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
39%
On target shareContext
26%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
71%
Box shareContext
68%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.70
Shots allowedContext
15.30
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.89
BlocksContext
4.30
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
74%
Save rateContext
53%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
467
PassesContext
377
388
Accurate passesContext
296
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.62
10.00
FoulsContext
10.30
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km844 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel369 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
1. FC Heidenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 369 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 844 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
39F. Mané
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
7J. Bellingham
2Yan Couto
10J. Brandt
27K. Adeyemi
9S. Guirassy
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
4T. Siersleben
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
26Hennes Behrens
30N. Dorsch
16J. Niehues
23O. Traoré
17M. Honsak
18M. Pieringer
8E. Dinkçi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.56points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-0
- Scored
- 2.11
- Conceded
- 0.67
1. FC Heidenheim · Away
0.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-7
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 2.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | 1. FC Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–1 A | L 0–6 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–2 A | L 0–4 H |
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Points | 39 of 54 · 2.17 per game | 13 of 54 · 0.72 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Borussia Dortmund wins2 draws0 1. FC Heidenheim wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 13 Sep 20251. FC Heidenheim0–2Borussia Dortmund
- 1 Feb 20251. FC Heidenheim1–2Borussia Dortmund
- 13 Sep 2024Borussia Dortmund4–21. FC Heidenheim
- 2 Feb 20241. FC Heidenheim0–0Borussia Dortmund
- 1 Sep 2023Borussia Dortmund2–21. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 2.21 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 3.11 | 3.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 95% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 74% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 63% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 53% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 37% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 4.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 9.27 | 9.53 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 10/18 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 7/18 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 4/18 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.95 | 1.74 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.74 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 3.69 | 3.85 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 11/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 7/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 5.88 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 10.51 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 3.75
Red cards0.18league 0.18
Cards 5+36%league 38%
Fouls23.1league 21.0
Penalties0.30league 0.34
Home wins54%league 44%
Borussia Dortmund8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- D23 Aug 25A · FC St. Pauli3–34
- L15 Mar 25A · RB Leipzig0–23
- W22 Dec 24A · VfL Wolfsburg3–13
- W18 Oct 24H · FC St. Pauli2–12
- L6 Apr 24H · VfB Stuttgart0–12
1. FC Heidenheim2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L25 Oct 25A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–31
- D15 Jan 25A · Werder Bremen3–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund19 games · scored 38 · conceded 17
4
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
12
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
5
61-75
10
7
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim19 games · scored 17 · conceded 42
1
2
0-15
2
7
16-30
2
10
31-45
4
9
46-60
3
7
61-75
5
7
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
6
3
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 9 · conceded 25
1
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
6
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
