Bundesliga Gameweek 25 Sat, Mar 6 · 14:30 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Bayern München 1st · 14 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel477 kmRest days3.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Borussia Dortmund—%
Draw—%
Bayern München—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Dortmund)

Forecast from 19 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Borussia DortmundBayern München
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
80 Current StrengthIn forecast 93
69 AttackIn forecast 96
80 DefenceIn forecast 90
61 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bayern München

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia DortmundBayern München
1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.67
0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.83
1.76 xGVia Att/Def 3.57
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.10
83% Scored inContext 83%
67% Clean sheetsContext 33%
15.17 ShotsContext 24.17
5.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 10.33
34% On target shareContext 43%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 14.50
73% Box shareContext 61%
12% ConversionContext 15%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.67
11.67 Shots allowedContext 7.67
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.83
2.80 BlocksContext 3.00
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40
78% Save rateContext 75%
55% PossessionIn forecast 69%
530 PassesContext 706
450 Accurate passesContext 635
85% Pass accuracyContext 90%
7.04 Team ratingContext 7.39
11.17 FoulsContext 10.50
11.83 Fouls sufferedContext 9.33
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 0.83
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.60
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.85 xGVia Att/Def 3.27
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.33
80% Scored inContext 90%
50% Clean sheetsContext 40%
14.70 ShotsContext 22.80
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.80
39% On target shareContext 43%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 13.40
72% Box shareContext 59%
13% ConversionContext 16%
1.63 OffsidesContext 2.90
11.20 Shots allowedContext 8.10
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11
2.78 BlocksContext 3.50
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38
77% Save rateContext 70%
54% PossessionIn forecast 68%
530 PassesContext 693
454 Accurate passesContext 625
86% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.99 Team ratingContext 7.30
10.90 FoulsContext 8.60
10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 0.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km747 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts
Bayern München
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel477 km721 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
  • D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
  • W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Dortmund Bayern München
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 2 Mar3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 2 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km477 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways747 km721 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 52 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise
9H. Kane

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bayern München Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.33
Conceded
0.67
Bayern München · Away 1.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-2-0
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBorussia DortmundBayern München
Union Berlin D 0–0 A W 7–0 H
VfB Stuttgart W 1–0 A W 5–1 H
Points4 of 6 · 2.00 per game6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Borussia Dortmund wins3 draws6 Bayern München wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.40 Over 2.580% Both scored80% Clean sheets10% · 10%
  • 28 Feb 2026Borussia Dortmund2–3Bayern München
  • 18 Oct 2025Bayern München2–1Borussia Dortmund
  • 12 Apr 2025Bayern München2–2Borussia Dortmund
  • 30 Nov 2024Borussia Dortmund1–1Bayern München
  • 30 Mar 2024Bayern München0–2Borussia Dortmund
  • 4 Nov 2023Borussia Dortmund0–4Bayern München

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Borussia DortmundBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 1.833.67
Conceded per game 0.670.83
Match goals 2.504.50
Over 1.5 67%83%
Over 2.5 50%83%
Over 3.5 33%67%
Both teams scored 33%67%
Clean sheets 67%33%
Failed to score 17%17%
Games66
Borussia DortmundBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 1.903.60
Conceded per game 0.900.90
Match goals 2.804.50
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 50%80%
Over 3.5 40%70%
Both teams scored 40%60%
Clean sheets 50%40%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia DortmundBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.839.40
Corners conceded4.673.20
Match total9.5012.6010.72
Over 8.567% 4/6100% 5/5
Over 9.567% 4/6100% 5/5
Over 10.533% 2/6100% 5/5
Cards
Cards2.670.83
Opponent cards2.002.17
Match total4.673.003.51
Over 3.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 4.550% 3/60% 0/6
Borussia DortmundBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.808.44
Corners conceded4.503.78
Match total10.3012.2210.72
Over 8.570% 7/10100% 9/9
Over 9.560% 6/1078% 7/9
Over 10.540% 4/1067% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.201.00
Opponent cards1.501.90
Match total3.702.903.51
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
5 2 76-90
Bayern München6 games · scored 22 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
3 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
5 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
10 1 46-60
7 2 61-75
8 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
SC Freiburg FC Augsburg Mar 614:30 FSV Mainz 05 SV Elversberg Mar 614:30 Borussia Dortmund Bayern München Mar 614:30 1899 Hoffenheim Werder Bremen Mar 614:30 VfB Stuttgart Bayer Leverkusen Mar 614:30 RB Leipzig FC Schalke 04 Mar 614:30 Hamburger SV Eintracht Frankfurt Mar 614:30 SC Paderborn 07 Borussia Mönchengladbach Mar 614:30 1.FC Köln Union Berlin Mar 614:30