FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg

Bundesliga Gameweek 25 Sat, Mar 6 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 5th · 10 pts · 6 played WLWLW

VS— Compare

SV Elversberg 6th · 10 pts · 6 played WLDLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel111 kmRest days3.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3

Real contextStrength only

FSV Mainz 05—%

Draw—%

SV Elversberg—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Mainz)

Forecast from 19 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak FSV Mainz 05 5 Scoring in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05

SV Elversberg

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 42

68 AttackIn forecast 44

56 DefenceIn forecast 37

70 Form indexContext 60

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

SV Elversberg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05

SV Elversberg

2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83

2.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.45

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.17

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.55

83% Scored inContext 67%

50% Clean sheetsContext 17%

17.83 ShotsContext 11.17

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

34% On target shareContext 42%

13.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.17

76% Box shareContext 72%

13% ConversionContext 18%

2.40 OffsidesContext 3.20

12.50 Shots allowedContext 22.00

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

4.17 BlocksContext 8.50

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.17

57% Save rateContext 59%

51% PossessionIn forecast 44%

446 PassesContext 382

357 Accurate passesContext 303

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.82

13.83 FoulsContext 11.67

11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 13.17

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.17

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

2.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.46

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.94

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

17.10 ShotsContext 11.20

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

36% On target shareContext 38%

12.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.56

75% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 21%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.86

12.50 Shots allowedContext 16.90

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.30 BlocksContext 6.33

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

58% Save rateContext 59%

48% PossessionIn forecast 48%

420 PassesContext 387

337 Accurate passesContext 309

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.80 FoulsContext 11.50

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05 WLWLW

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km988 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts

SV Elversberg WLDLW

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel111 km590 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 60 · 7 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

W17 OctH · FC Augsburg4–31.4 xPts
L10 OctA · Union Berlin0–11.3 xPts
D20 SepA · FC Schalke 040–01.1 xPts
L13 SepH · Bayern München1–20.5 xPts
W5 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FSV Mainz 05	SV Elversberg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 2 Mar	3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 2 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	111 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	988 km	590 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	2 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs FC Schalke 04 (A) 1–0, 17 Oct

1A. Schwolow(G)

48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa

2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci

9P. Tietz 23S. Becker

SV Elversberg Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs FC Augsburg (H) 4–3, 17 Oct

20N. Kristof(G)

21L. Günther 31M. Rohr 19L. Pinckert 30J. Gyamerah

8Ł. Poręba 43F. Keidel

7M. Krattenmacher 10N. Darvich 25L. Petkov

42David Mokwa

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FSV Mainz 05 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

SV Elversberg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.33

SV Elversberg · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	FSV Mainz 05	SV Elversberg
FC Schalke 04	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 A
Bayer Leverkusen	L 3–4 H	W 3–2 H
Borussia Mönchengladbach	W 4–3 A	W 4–3 A
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	FSV Mainz 05	SV Elversberg
Scored per game	2.33	2.00
Conceded per game	1.67	1.83
Match goals	4.00	3.83
Over 1.5	67%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	67%
Over 3.5	67%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	67%
Clean sheets	50%	17%
Failed to score	17%	33%
Games	6	6

	FSV Mainz 05	SV Elversberg
Scored per game	2.20	2.00
Conceded per game	1.80	1.83
Match goals	4.00	3.83
Over 1.5	80%	67%
Over 2.5	70%	67%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	67%
Clean sheets	40%	17%
Failed to score	10%	33%
Games	10	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FSV Mainz 05	SV Elversberg	League
Corners
Corners won	4.83	3.67
Corners conceded	4.00	8.00
Match total	8.83	11.67	10.72
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	2.33	2.17
Opponent cards	2.00	1.83
Match total	4.33	4.00	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	50% 3/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	33% 2/6

	FSV Mainz 05	SV Elversberg	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	4.00
Corners conceded	4.90	6.20
Match total	9.70	10.20	10.72
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.90
Opponent cards	1.90	2.30
Match total	3.80	4.20	3.51
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.