Bundesliga Gameweek 25 Sat, Mar 6 · 14:30 Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
SC Paderborn 07 16th · 5 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Borussia Mönchengladbach 18th · 0 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel171 kmRest days3.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
SC Paderborn 07—%
Draw—%
Borussia Mönchengladbach—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Paderborn)

Forecast from 19 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SC Paderborn 07Borussia Mönchengladbach
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
38 Current StrengthIn forecast 36
34 AttackIn forecast 34
33 DefenceIn forecast 21
33 Form indexContext 7
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Paderborn 07

Attack—
Defense risk—

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Paderborn 07Borussia Mönchengladbach
0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.33
0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.40
1.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.49
-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.07
33% Scored inContext 67%
17% Clean sheetsContext 0%
13.50 ShotsContext 15.17
4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40
21% On target shareContext 30%
7.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.83
58% Box shareContext 64%
6% ConversionContext 9%
1.20 OffsidesContext 3.00
18.17 Shots allowedContext 18.17
6.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 8.83
6.33 BlocksContext 3.20
4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50
74% Save rateContext 62%
46% PossessionIn forecast 48%
443 PassesContext 404
357 Accurate passesContext 328
81% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.46
10.50 FoulsContext 14.83
10.83 Fouls sufferedContext 10.17
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.26
1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.04
-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
50% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.50 ShotsContext 13.50
4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44
26% On target shareContext 30%
10.38 Shots in the boxContext 8.80
60% Box shareContext 65%
8% ConversionContext 10%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.78
16.00 Shots allowedContext 15.10
5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.10
5.11 BlocksContext 2.88
4.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80
79% Save rateContext 68%
48% PossessionIn forecast 50%
451 PassesContext 432
366 Accurate passesContext 356
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.63
10.80 FoulsContext 12.60
10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Paderborn 07
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,096 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 33 · 4 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Werder Bremen2–21.1 xPts
  • L10 OctH · VfB Stuttgart0–21.2 xPts
  • W20 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim3–11.3 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Borussia Dortmund0–30.5 xPts
  • L5 SepH · SC Freiburg0–11.2 xPts
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel171 km552 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -6.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.5 xPts
  • L11 OctA · 1.FC Köln1–21.1 xPts
  • L19 SepH · FSV Mainz 053–41.3 xPts
  • L12 SepA · SC Freiburg0–50.7 xPts
  • L5 SepH · SV Elversberg3–41.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SC Paderborn 07 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 2 Mar3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 2 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km171 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,096 km552 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 52 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Paderborn 07 Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Werder Bremen (A) 2–2, 17 Oct
15N. Noll(G)
22M. Hansen 25T. Scheller 21J. ter Horst
5S. Castañeda
23R. Obermair 40G. Vidović 28L. Ulrich 17L. Curda
27S. Tigges 30S. Marino
Borussia Mönchengladbach Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim (H) 1–2, 18 Oct
1M. Nicolas(G)
26L. Ullrich 2F. Chiarodia 4K. Diks 16P. Sander
36W. Mohya 10F. Neuhaus 47Z. Uno 29J. Scally
3I. Lidberg 38A. Bolin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SC Paderborn 07 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Borussia Mönchengladbach Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

SC Paderborn 07 · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.33
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.33
Conceded
3.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentSC Paderborn 07Borussia Mönchengladbach
1899 Hoffenheim W 3–1 H L 1–2 H
SC Freiburg L 0–1 H L 0–5 A
FSV Mainz 05 D 0–0 A L 3–4 H
Points4 of 9 · 1.33 per game0 of 9 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

SC Paderborn 07Borussia MönchengladbachForecast
Scored per game 0.831.33
Conceded per game 1.503.33
Match goals 2.334.67
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 33%50%
Both teams scored 33%67%
Clean sheets 17%0%
Failed to score 67%33%
Games66
SC Paderborn 07Borussia MönchengladbachForecast
Scored per game 0.831.40
Conceded per game 1.502.30
Match goals 2.333.70
Over 1.5 67%80%
Over 2.5 50%80%
Over 3.5 33%50%
Both teams scored 33%50%
Clean sheets 17%30%
Failed to score 67%30%
Games610

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SC Paderborn 07Borussia MönchengladbachLeague
Corners
Corners won4.336.00
Corners conceded6.175.50
Match total10.5011.5010.72
Over 8.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 9.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 10.550% 3/650% 3/6
Cards
Cards1.333.00
Opponent cards1.171.83
Match total2.504.833.51
Over 3.517% 1/683% 5/6
Over 4.517% 1/633% 2/6
SC Paderborn 07Borussia MönchengladbachLeague
Corners
Corners won5.104.60
Corners conceded4.705.30
Match total9.809.9010.72
Over 8.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 9.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 10.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.703.10
Opponent cards2.002.10
Match total3.705.203.51
Over 3.550% 5/1090% 9/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

SC Paderborn 076 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1 0-15
3 2 16-30
1 31-45
2 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach6 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2 1 0-15
6 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 61-75
1 7 76-90
SC Paderborn 0710 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1 2 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 31-45
2 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 4 76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
3 1 0-15
1 7 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 61-75
5 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
SC Freiburg FC Augsburg Mar 614:30 FSV Mainz 05 SV Elversberg Mar 614:30 Borussia Dortmund Bayern München Mar 614:30 1899 Hoffenheim Werder Bremen Mar 614:30 VfB Stuttgart Bayer Leverkusen Mar 614:30 RB Leipzig FC Schalke 04 Mar 614:30 Hamburger SV Eintracht Frankfurt Mar 614:30 SC Paderborn 07 Borussia Mönchengladbach Mar 614:30 1.FC Köln Union Berlin Mar 614:30