Bundesliga Gameweek 25 Sat, Mar 6 · 14:30 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
1899 Hoffenheim 14th · 6 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Werder Bremen 8th · 9 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel425 kmRest days3.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
1899 Hoffenheim—%
Draw—%
Werder Bremen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sinsheim)

Forecast from 19 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

1899 HoffenheimWerder Bremen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
49 Current StrengthIn forecast 43
46 AttackIn forecast 56
43 DefenceIn forecast 45
15 Form indexContext 71
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—
Defense risk—

Werder Bremen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1899 HoffenheimWerder Bremen
1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.58
1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.42
100% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.83 ShotsContext 14.00
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.83
30% On target shareContext 49%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.67
61% Box shareContext 66%
10% ConversionContext 14%
2.20 OffsidesContext 2.17
13.50 Shots allowedContext 15.33
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
4.33 BlocksContext 4.50
2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
52% Save rateContext 61%
57% PossessionIn forecast 47%
499 PassesContext 476
405 Accurate passesContext 400
81% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.83 Team ratingContext 6.96
13.33 FoulsContext 12.00
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.17
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81
-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.09
80% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.60 ShotsContext 12.70
4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
28% On target shareContext 42%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.44
62% Box shareContext 62%
8% ConversionContext 11%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.44
12.90 Shots allowedContext 15.70
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60
4.10 BlocksContext 4.40
2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
50% Save rateContext 66%
59% PossessionIn forecast 46%
515 PassesContext 458
426 Accurate passesContext 380
83% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.93
14.00 FoulsContext 10.30
9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1899 Hoffenheim
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,447 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
  • L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts
Werder Bremen
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel425 km302 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 71 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · SC Paderborn 072–21.7 xPts
  • D9 OctA · Borussia Dortmund2–20.5 xPts
  • W19 SepH · FC Augsburg3–21.2 xPts
  • D12 SepA · 1.FC Köln1–11.1 xPts
  • W5 SepH · RB Leipzig3–10.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
1899 Hoffenheim Werder Bremen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 2 Mar3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 2 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km425 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,447 km302 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 52 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal
22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle
Werder Bremen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Paderborn 07 (H) 2–2, 17 Oct
1K. Hein(G)
2O. Deman 32M. Friedl 5A. Pieper 13Arthur
44Y. Regeer 15L. Reis
17M. Grüll 20Chuky 18E. Dinkçi
10N. Füllkrug

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
1899 Hoffenheim Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Werder Bremen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

1899 Hoffenheim · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.33
Werder Bremen · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-2-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent1899 HoffenheimWerder Bremen
SC Paderborn 07 L 1–3 A D 2–2 H
Borussia Dortmund L 2–3 H D 2–2 A
1.FC Köln L 2–3 A D 1–1 A
Points0 of 9 · 0.00 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

6 1899 Hoffenheim wins0 draws2 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game2.13 – 1.38 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%
  • 9 May 20261899 Hoffenheim1–0Werder Bremen
  • 27 Jan 2026Werder Bremen0–21899 Hoffenheim
  • 16 Feb 2025Werder Bremen1–31899 Hoffenheim
  • 29 Sep 20241899 Hoffenheim3–4Werder Bremen
  • 3 Mar 20241899 Hoffenheim2–1Werder Bremen
  • 7 Oct 2023Werder Bremen2–31899 Hoffenheim

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

1899 HoffenheimWerder BremenForecast
Scored per game 1.832.00
Conceded per game 2.332.00
Match goals 4.174.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%83%
Over 3.5 67%83%
Both teams scored 100%100%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games66
1899 HoffenheimWerder BremenForecast
Scored per game 1.401.40
Conceded per game 2.301.90
Match goals 3.703.30
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 80%60%
Over 3.5 60%60%
Both teams scored 70%80%
Clean sheets 10%0%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

1899 HoffenheimWerder BremenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.673.67
Corners conceded4.675.83
Match total11.349.5010.72
Over 8.5100% 6/667% 4/6
Over 9.583% 5/650% 3/6
Over 10.567% 4/650% 3/6
Cards
Cards2.171.17
Opponent cards0.671.33
Match total2.842.503.51
Over 3.533% 2/617% 1/6
Over 4.517% 1/60% 0/6
1899 HoffenheimWerder BremenLeague
Corners
Corners won7.103.90
Corners conceded4.206.40
Match total11.3010.3010.72
Over 8.5100% 10/1080% 8/10
Over 9.590% 9/1060% 6/10
Over 10.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.701.20
Opponent cards1.401.00
Match total4.102.203.51
Over 3.560% 6/1020% 2/10
Over 4.540% 4/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

1899 Hoffenheim6 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 3 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 76-90
Werder Bremen6 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
1 31-45
1 3 46-60
4 61-75
6 3 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 5 61-75
1 8 76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
1 1 0-15
1 6 16-30
2 31-45
1 4 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
SC Freiburg FC Augsburg Mar 614:30 FSV Mainz 05 SV Elversberg Mar 614:30 Borussia Dortmund Bayern München Mar 614:30 1899 Hoffenheim Werder Bremen Mar 614:30 VfB Stuttgart Bayer Leverkusen Mar 614:30 RB Leipzig FC Schalke 04 Mar 614:30 Hamburger SV Eintracht Frankfurt Mar 614:30 SC Paderborn 07 Borussia Mönchengladbach Mar 614:30 1.FC Köln Union Berlin Mar 614:30