Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 64 pts · 30 played
WWWLL
4–0Full time
SC Freiburg
8th · 43 pts · 30 played
LWLWW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 63). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for SC Freiburg. Borussia Dortmund had 8.1 days of rest, SC Freiburg 7.1 and had to travel 392 km.
Away travel392 kmRest days8.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 3
Borussia Dortmund48%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg27%
Borussia Dortmund56%
Draw24%
SC Freiburg20%
Borussia Dortmund49%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg26%
Borussia Dortmund41%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg33%
Borussia Dortmund47%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg27%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobin Braun
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.53
- Matches 15
Team strength
Borussia DortmundSC Freiburg
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
69
AttackIn forecast
63
80
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundSC Freiburg
2.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.47
1.03
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
97%
Scored inContext
73%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.70
ShotsContext
12.50
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
35%
On target shareContext
34%
9.27
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
74%
Box shareContext
67%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.38
10.30
Shots allowedContext
13.27
3.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.96
BlocksContext
4.30
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
72%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
482
PassesContext
396
406
Accurate passesContext
323
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.80
FoulsContext
9.10
10.13
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.71
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
12.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
31%
On target shareContext
41%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
78%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
17%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.90
10.70
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.50
BlocksContext
3.70
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
66%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
451
PassesContext
404
375
Accurate passesContext
336
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.07
10.70
FoulsContext
9.10
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km541 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel392 km3,338 km in 14d
Schedule load31%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 31 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 392 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 541 km | 3,338 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
5A. Bensebaini
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
14M. Beier
7J. Bellingham
20M. Sabitzer
26J. Ryerson
40Samuele Inacio
10J. Brandt
9S. Guirassy
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
3P. Lienhart
43B. Ogbus
17L. Kübler
27N. Höfler
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
9L. Höler
7D. Scherhant
31I. Matanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- SC Freiburg+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.33points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-2-2
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 0.93
SC Freiburg · Away
1.00points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-8
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.87
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–0 AD 3–3 H | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | L 2–3 HL 2–6 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 4–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 A | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 63 of 87 · 2.17 per game | 42 of 87 · 1.45 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
7 Borussia Dortmund wins1 draws1 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game3.33 – 1.00
Over 2.589%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets22% · 0%
- 14 Dec 2025SC Freiburg1–1Borussia Dortmund
- 5 Apr 2025SC Freiburg1–4Borussia Dortmund
- 23 Nov 2024Borussia Dortmund4–0SC Freiburg
- 9 Feb 2024Borussia Dortmund3–0SC Freiburg
- 16 Sep 2023SC Freiburg2–4Borussia Dortmund
- 4 Feb 2023Borussia Dortmund5–1SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.03 | 1.47 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.03 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 3.07 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 63% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 3% | 27% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Borussia Dortmund | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 4.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.31 | 4.42 | |
| Match total | 9.69 | 9.23 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 17/29 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 12/29 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 9/29 | 27% 7/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.03 | 1.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.73 | 4.07 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 17/30 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 12/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.66 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.60 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Braun 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.53league 3.72
Red cards0.27league 0.17
Cards 5+47%league 38%
Fouls22.2league 20.3
Penalties0.53league 0.37
Home wins33%league 44%
Borussia DortmundNo previous matches with this referee.
SC FreiburgNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund30 games · scored 61 · conceded 31
7
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
15
5
31-45
7
5
46-60
8
6
61-75
19
10
76-90
SC Freiburg30 games · scored 44 · conceded 48
7
3
0-15
3
5
16-30
7
9
31-45
9
16
46-60
7
3
61-75
11
12
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
