Borussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Mönchengladbach
14th · 22 pts · 23 played
LDDLL
1–0Full time
Union Berlin
10th · 28 pts · 23 played
LLDLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Union Berlin. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 6 days of rest, Union Berlin 7 and had to travel 501 km.
Away travel501 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Borussia Mönchengladbach37%
Draw27%
Union Berlin36%
Borussia Mönchengladbach41%
Draw27%
Union Berlin32%
Borussia Mönchengladbach36%
Draw27%
Union Berlin37%
Borussia Mönchengladbach30%
Draw26%
Union Berlin43%
Borussia Mönchengladbach36%
Draw27%
Union Berlin36%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 63
Team strength
Borussia MönchengladbachUnion Berlin
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
34
AttackIn forecast
42
21
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia MönchengladbachUnion Berlin
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.26
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.61
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
57%
Scored inContext
74%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
11.09
ShotsContext
12.43
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.52
36%
On target shareContext
28%
7.64
Shots in the boxContext
9.35
66%
Box shareContext
75%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.28
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.22
Shots allowedContext
11.65
5.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.96
3.30
BlocksContext
3.63
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.85
70%
Save rateContext
66%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
428
PassesContext
317
355
Accurate passesContext
229
83%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.57
FoulsContext
12.39
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.22
1.39
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.09
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.10
ShotsContext
13.00
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
32%
On target shareContext
27%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
62%
Box shareContext
78%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.40
Shots allowedContext
10.10
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
2.70
BlocksContext
3.14
4.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
75%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
443
PassesContext
338
364
Accurate passesContext
246
82%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.71
10.90
FoulsContext
11.80
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,134 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union Berlin
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel501 km511 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Mönchengladbach |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 501 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,134 km | 511 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
17J. Castrop
6Y. Engelhardt
27R. Reitz
29J. Scally
36Wael Mohya
9F. Honorat
15H. Tabaković
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
34S. Nsoki
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
28C. Trimmel
13A. Schäfer
11W. Jeong
7O. Burke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Union Berlin-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home
0.91points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-5
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.91
Union Berlin · Away
1.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–3 AL 4–6 H | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H | L 0–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–5 A | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| RB Leipzig | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 4–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 22 of 66 · 1.00 per game | 25 of 66 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins1 draws6 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game0.89 – 1.56
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 22%
- 17 Oct 2025Union Berlin3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 15 Feb 2025Union Berlin1–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 28 Sep 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–0Union Berlin
- 28 Apr 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0Union Berlin
- 9 Dec 2023Union Berlin3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 23 Apr 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach0–1Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.61 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 2.87 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 61% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 26% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.23 | 4.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.77 | 4.23 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.18 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 11/22 | 73% 16/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 9/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 6/22 | 23% 5/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 4.52 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 7/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 7/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 8.50 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.00 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.79
Red cards0.17league 0.17
Cards 5+35%league 39%
Fouls23.0league 20.6
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins54%league 46%
Borussia Mönchengladbach7 with this referee
Record4-0-3
Cards · opp.0.9 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 2
- L14 Sep 25H · Werder Bremen0–41
- W25 Jan 25H · VfL Bochum3–01
- W27 May 23H · FC Augsburg2–00
- L11 Mar 23A · RB Leipzig0–30
- W4 Nov 22H · VfB Stuttgart3–12
Union Berlin5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L2 Nov 24A · Bayern München0–32
- W21 Sep 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–13
- W10 Feb 24H · VfL Wolfsburg1–01
- L13 Feb 22H · Borussia Dortmund0–34
- D8 Jan 22A · Bayer Leverkusen2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Mönchengladbach23 games · scored 26 · conceded 39
3
6
0-15
2
7
16-30
5
9
31-45
2
1
46-60
7
8
61-75
7
8
76-90
Union Berlin23 games · scored 29 · conceded 37
2
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
12
31-45
4
8
46-60
4
2
61-75
10
11
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
2
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
6
31-45
46-60
3
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
8
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
