Bournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bournemouth were slight favourites.
Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 66). Bournemouth had 6.2 days of rest, Fulham 5.3 and had to travel 151 km.
Away travel151 kmRest days6.2 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bournemouth50%
Draw25%
Fulham26%
Bournemouth48%
Draw26%
Fulham26%
Bournemouth49%
Draw25%
Fulham26%
Bournemouth42%
Draw26%
Fulham32%
Bournemouth49%
Draw26%
Fulham25%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Hooper
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 129
Team strength
Bournemouth
Fulham
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
83
AttackIn forecast
66
82
DefenceIn forecast
68
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BournemouthFulham
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
83%
Scored inContext
83%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
13.33
ShotsContext
10.17
4.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.17
31%
On target shareContext
31%
8.17
Shots in the boxContext
7.17
60%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.83
Shots allowedContext
10.00
3.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
2.33
BlocksContext
2.83
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
70%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
407
PassesContext
430
326
Accurate passesContext
360
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.00
FoulsContext
14.67
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.50
ShotsContext
11.80
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
31%
On target shareContext
32%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
63%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.30
Shots allowedContext
11.20
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.50
BlocksContext
3.20
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
66%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
420
PassesContext
429
344
Accurate passesContext
363
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.90
FoulsContext
13.90
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bournemouth
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km686 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fulham
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel151 km325 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bournemouth |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 5.3Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 686 km | 325 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.8 | 14.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
18B. Diakité
23J. Hill
8A. Scott
12T. Adams
24A. Semenyo
16M. Tavernier
7D. Brooks
9Evanilson
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
3C. Bassey
5J. Andersen
31I. Diop
30K. Sessegnon
16S. Berge
20S. Lukić
21T. Castagne
17A. Iwobi
8H. Wilson
24J. King
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bournemouth
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fulham
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bournemouth+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Fulham-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Bournemouth · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
Fulham · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Bournemouth | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Brighton | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Bournemouth wins4 draws1 Fulham wins
Goals per game1.63 – 1.25
Over 2.563%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 14 Apr 2025Bournemouth1–0Fulham
- 29 Dec 2024Fulham2–2Bournemouth
- 10 Feb 2024Fulham3–1Bournemouth
- 26 Dec 2023Bournemouth3–0Fulham
- 1 Apr 2023Bournemouth2–1Fulham
- 15 Oct 2022Fulham2–2Bournemouth
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bournemouth | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bournemouth | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 5.17 | 4.17 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Bournemouth | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.25 | 9.20 | 10.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.80 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Hooper 129 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.96league 3.80
Red cards0.06league 0.15
Cards 5+36%league 42%
Fouls21.8league 22.0
Penalties0.16league 0.20
Home wins49%league 45%
Bournemouth6 with this referee
Record3-0-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Aug 25A · Tottenham1–04
- W5 Dec 24H · Tottenham1–02
- L31 Dec 23A · Tottenham1–32
- L27 Dec 22A · Chelsea0–20
- W19 Mar 22A · Huddersfield3–03
Fulham6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W2 Mar 24H · Brighton3–01
- L12 Nov 23A · Aston Villa1–35
- L30 Apr 23H · Manchester City1–21
- D25 Sep 21A · Bristol City1–13
- W30 Nov 20A · Leicester2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bournemouth6 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Fulham6 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
31-45
3
46-60
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
