Bournemouth
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bournemouth40.9%fair odds 2.45
Draw26.2%fair odds 3.82
Newcastle33.0%fair odds 3.03
Expected goals1.51 – 1.34total 2.85
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Newcastle
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bournemouth ↓ · Newcastle → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bournemouth goals, columns Newcastle goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.11
- 2–18.9%11.30
- 1–08.2%12.27
- 1–27.8%12.79
- 0–17.1%14.03
- 2–06.6%15.09
- 0–06.4%15.57
- 2–25.9%16.92
- 0–25.2%19.33
- 3–14.5%22.42
Winning margin
8.0%
Bournemouth by 3+
fair 12.56
12.4%
Bournemouth by 2
fair 8.08
20.5%
Bournemouth by 1
fair 4.87
26.2%
Draw
fair 3.82
18.1%
Newcastle by 1
fair 5.53
9.7%
Newcastle by 2
fair 10.35
5.2%
Newcastle by 3+
fair 19.15
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Bournemouth goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Newcastle goals
26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 40.9% | 40.4% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 26.2% | 27.1% | -0.9 pp |
| Newcastle win | 33.0% | 32.5% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 50.2% | +4.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.1% | 55.0% | +3.1 pp |
| Expected goals Bournemouth | 1.51 | 1.42 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Newcastle | 1.34 | 1.26 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bournemouth win40.9%2.45
- Draw26.2%3.82
- Newcastle win33.0%3.03
- Double chance Bournemouth or draw67.0%1.49
- Double chance Bournemouth or Newcastle73.8%1.35
- Double chance Newcastle or draw59.1%1.69
- Draw no bet Bournemouth55.4%1.81
- Draw no bet Newcastle44.6%2.24
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.3%1.28
- Over 2.554.2%1.85
- Over 3.531.8%3.14
- Over 4.516.0%6.26
- Under 1.521.7%4.61
- Under 2.545.8%2.18
- Under 3.568.2%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes58.1%1.72
- No41.9%2.38
- Yes and over 2.545.7%2.19
- Bournemouth win and yes21.0%4.76
- Draw and yes19.7%5.06
- Newcastle win and yes17.3%5.77
Team goals
- Bournemouth over 0.577.9%1.28
- Bournemouth over 1.544.6%2.24
- Bournemouth over 2.519.4%5.15
- Newcastle over 0.573.7%1.36
- Newcastle over 1.538.6%2.59
- Newcastle over 2.515.1%6.62
- Bournemouth clean sheet26.3%3.80
- Newcastle clean sheet22.1%4.53
- Bournemouth win to nil19.9%5.03
- Newcastle win to nil15.6%6.40
Handicap
- Bournemouth −1.520.3%4.92
- Bournemouth −2.58.0%12.56
- Newcastle +1.579.7%1.26
- Newcastle +2.592.0%1.09
- Newcastle −1.514.9%6.72
- Bournemouth +1.585.1%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored47
Favourite won55.3%
Avg chance given to result40.6%
1X2 Brier0.583
Over 2.5 called right53.2%
BTTS called right42.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.0% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 20 | 44.6% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 53.3% | 44.4% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 64.2% | 87.5% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 71.9% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 17 of 47 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5478 | 0.5119 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.7% | 44.4% |
| Favourite won | 58.8% | 64.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 47 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.