Bournemouth vs Newcastle – 21 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 21 · 14:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 5th · 9 pts · 4 played LWWW

0–0Full time

Newcastle 13th · 5 pts · 4 played DLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Bournemouth had 8 days of rest, Newcastle 8 and had to travel 473 km.

Away travel473 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Bournemouth41%

Draw26%

Newcastle33%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.34

Bournemouth40%

Draw27%

Newcastle33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Bournemouth40%

Draw26%

Newcastle33%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.34

Bournemouth34%

Draw26%

Newcastle40%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.50

Bournemouth40%

Draw27%

Newcastle33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

No weather data yet

RefereeRobert Jones

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 123

Team strength

Bournemouth

Newcastle

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

83 AttackIn forecast 61

82 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Newcastle

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.75

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.52

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.36

100% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 75%

14.25 ShotsContext 12.50

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

32% On target shareContext 24%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.25

67% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.00

9.00 Shots allowedContext 6.50

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75

1.75 BlocksContext 2.00

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

64% Save rateContext 73%

47% PossessionIn forecast 53%

359 PassesContext 424

278 Accurate passesContext 343

78% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.94

13.00 FoulsContext 13.25

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.75

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.25

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.63

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.52

80% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.40 ShotsContext 14.20

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

30% On target shareContext 31%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

67% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

9.90 Shots allowedContext 9.00

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44

3.50 BlocksContext 3.00

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

66% Save rateContext 74%

52% PossessionIn forecast 54%

403 PassesContext 431

329 Accurate passesContext 359

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.00

14.00 FoulsContext 11.20

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel473 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep	8Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	473 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 18B. Diakité 20Álex Jiménez

8A. Scott 12T. Adams

7D. Brooks 16M. Tavernier 24A. Semenyo

9Evanilson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1N. Pope(G)

33D. Burn 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw

3L. Hall 67L. Miley 8S. Tonali 21V. Livramento

28J. Willock 23J. Murphy

27N. Woltemade

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth+0.4 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Newcastle-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Newcastle · Away 1.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-0
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Newcastle
Wolves	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Liverpool	L 2–4 A	L 2–3 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Bournemouth wins4 draws0 Newcastle wins

Goals per game1.83 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored83% Clean sheets17% · 0%

18 Jan 2025Newcastle1–4Bournemouth
25 Aug 2024Bournemouth1–1Newcastle
17 Feb 2024Newcastle2–2Bournemouth
11 Nov 2023Bournemouth2–0Newcastle
11 Feb 2023Bournemouth1–1Newcastle
17 Sep 2022Newcastle1–1Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.75
Conceded per game	1.25	0.75
Match goals	2.75	1.50	2.85
Over 1.5	50%	25%
Over 2.5	50%	25%	54%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	25%	58%
Clean sheets	50%	75%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	4	4

	Bournemouth	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.75
Conceded per game	1.25	0.75
Match goals	2.75	1.50	2.85
Over 1.5	50%	25%
Over 2.5	50%	25%	54%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	25%	58%
Clean sheets	50%	75%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	6.75
Corners conceded	4.33	3.25
Match total	10.66	10.00	9.78
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.50
Opponent cards	3.00	2.50
Match total	6.00	4.00	3.73
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4

	Bournemouth	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	6.90
Corners conceded	4.13	4.10
Match total	8.88	11.00	9.78
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	3.10	1.80
Opponent cards	2.80	3.00
Match total	5.90	4.80	3.73
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Jones 123 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 3.60

Red cards0.11league 0.15

Cards 5+41%league 43%

Fouls23.0league 22.5

Penalties0.25league 0.26

Home wins46%league 49%

Bournemouth8 with this referee

Record4-2-2 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against3 · 0

L2 Apr 25H · Ipswich1–21
D14 Jan 25A · Chelsea2–23
D29 Dec 24A · Fulham2–23
W19 Oct 24H · Arsenal2–01
W23 Dec 23A · Nottingham Forest3–23

Newcastle12 with this referee

Record8-1-3 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

W7 Apr 25A · Leicester3–00
W1 Sep 24H · Tottenham2–14
L15 May 24A · Manchester United2–33
W30 Mar 24H · West Ham4–33
W2 Dec 23H · Manchester United1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.