Bournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bournemouth were clear favourites.
Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 50). Absences weigh more on Sunderland. Bournemouth had 6.8 days of rest, Sunderland 5.9 and had to travel 466 km.
Away travel466 kmRest days6.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Bournemouth62%
Draw21%
Sunderland17%
Bournemouth60%
Draw23%
Sunderland17%
Bournemouth61%
Draw22%
Sunderland18%
Bournemouth54%
Draw23%
Sunderland22%
Bournemouth61%
Draw22%
Sunderland17%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)
No weather data yet
RefereeJarred Gillett
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 101
Team strength
Bournemouth
Sunderland
74
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
83
AttackIn forecast
62
82
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BournemouthSunderland
1.59
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.04
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
81%
Scored inContext
63%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.41
ShotsContext
9.78
4.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.31
37%
On target shareContext
33%
8.35
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
59%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.24
OffsidesContext
1.81
13.00
Shots allowedContext
14.37
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.04
BlocksContext
4.48
3.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.24
67%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
406
PassesContext
377
324
Accurate passesContext
300
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.15
FoulsContext
9.81
10.44
Fouls sufferedContext
10.59
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.80
ShotsContext
11.10
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
39%
On target shareContext
33%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
57%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.29
15.90
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
5.10
BlocksContext
4.20
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
71%
Save rateContext
54%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
369
PassesContext
420
285
Accurate passesContext
341
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.30
FoulsContext
10.60
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bournemouth
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km301 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sunderland
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel466 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bournemouth |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 5.9Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 466 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 301 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.3 | 3.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
23J. Hill
20Álex Jiménez
8A. Scott
12T. Adams
7D. Brooks
16M. Tavernier
37Rayan
22E. Kroupi
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
32T. Hume
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
6L. Geertruida
34G. Xhaka
27N. Sadiki
28E. Le Fée
19M. Diarra
7C. Talbi
12Eliezer Mayenda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bournemouth
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bournemouth+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Sunderland-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Bournemouth · Home
1.77points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-2
- Scored
- 1.54
- Conceded
- 1.08
Sunderland · Away
0.77points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-7
- Scored
- 0.46
- Conceded
- 1.54
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Bournemouth | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 AW 3–0 H |
| Everton | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Wolves | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Liverpool | W 3–2 HL 2–4 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Brighton | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Tottenham | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 2–3 H | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Chelsea | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Brentford | L 1–4 A | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Burnley | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Manchester United | D 4–4 A | L 0–2 A |
| Manchester City | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | D 3–3 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Fulham | W 3–1 H | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Leeds | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Newcastle | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 38 of 78 · 1.46 per game | 33 of 78 · 1.27 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Bournemouth wins0 draws1 Sunderland wins
Goals per game2.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 29 Nov 2025Sunderland3–2Bournemouth
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bournemouth | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.59 | 1.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 3.26 | 2.26 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 44% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 44% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 37% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Bournemouth | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.50 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bournemouth | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 3.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 4.93 | |
| Match total | 11.36 | 8.41 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 20/25 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 68% 17/25 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 15/25 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.37 | 2.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 4.37 | 3.78 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 18/27 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 12/27 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Bournemouth | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.80 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 12.90 | 8.22 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jarred Gillett 101 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 3.75
Red cards0.10league 0.12
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls20.1league 21.4
Penalties0.23league 0.22
Home wins38%league 42%
Bournemouth5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D18 Oct 25A · Crystal Palace3–34
- W3 May 25A · Arsenal2–12
- W15 Feb 25A · Southampton3–13
- L24 Feb 24H · Manchester City0–12
- L14 Jan 23A · Brentford0–21
Sunderland3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D1 Jan 26H · Manchester City0–01
- L7 Oct 23H · Middlesbrough0–45
- D31 Mar 23A · Burnley0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bournemouth27 games · scored 43 · conceded 45
7
5
0-15
7
6
16-30
7
9
31-45
3
7
46-60
7
5
61-75
12
13
76-90
Sunderland27 games · scored 28 · conceded 33
1
6
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
4
46-60
8
8
61-75
8
6
76-90
Bournemouth9 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
