Brentford
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Brentford were slight favourites.
Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 59). Absences weigh more on Burnley. Brentford had 7 days of rest, Burnley 7.1 and had to travel 288 km.
Away travel288 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Brentford53%
Draw25%
Burnley22%
Brentford52%
Draw25%
Burnley23%
Brentford52%
Draw25%
Burnley23%
Brentford45%
Draw26%
Burnley28%
Brentford53%
Draw25%
Burnley22%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)
No weather data yet
RefereeSamuel Barrott
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 68
Team strength
Brentford
Burnley
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
73
AttackIn forecast
27
73
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBurnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrentfordBurnley
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.14
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
83%
Scored inContext
67%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
10.58
ShotsContext
8.17
4.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
42%
On target shareContext
38%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
4.83
72%
Box shareContext
58%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.11
12.33
Shots allowedContext
17.25
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.83
4.08
BlocksContext
5.00
2.55
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.08
65%
Save rateContext
70%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
350
PassesContext
356
272
Accurate passesContext
278
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.69
12.33
FoulsContext
10.17
9.09
Fouls sufferedContext
9.75
2.08
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.26
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.80
ShotsContext
7.70
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
44%
On target shareContext
40%
8.75
Shots in the boxContext
4.70
70%
Box shareContext
58%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.00
Shots allowedContext
18.20
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.30
3.90
BlocksContext
5.40
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
67%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
368
PassesContext
358
286
Accurate passesContext
279
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.67
12.20
FoulsContext
10.50
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brentford
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km142 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Burnley
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel288 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brentford |
Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 288 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 142 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brentford
Confirmed XI
1C. Kelleher(G)
2A. Hickey
4S. van den Berg
22N. Collins
33M. Kayode
8M. Jensen
6J. Henderson
7K. Schade
24M. Damsgaard
19D. Ouattara
9Thiago
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman
5M. Estève
6A. Tuanzebe
2K. Walker
16Florentino
24J. Cullen
9L. Foster
28H. Mejbri
17L. Tchaouna
19Z. Flemming
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brentford
Absences are shown before kick-off
Burnley
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brentford+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Burnley-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Brentford · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.17
Burnley · Away
0.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-5
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Brentford | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| West Ham | W 2–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Manchester City | L 0–1 H | L 1–5 A |
| Manchester United | W 3–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Chelsea | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Sunderland | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Aston Villa | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 13 of 24 · 1.63 per game | 4 of 24 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Brentford wins0 draws2 Burnley wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 16 Mar 2024Burnley2–1Brentford
- 21 Oct 2023Brentford3–0Burnley
- 12 Mar 2022Brentford2–0Burnley
- 30 Oct 2021Burnley3–1Brentford
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brentford | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 3.17 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Brentford | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brentford | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 2.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 6.75 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 9.33 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 8/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 7/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 6/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.42 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 3.09 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 8/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 7/12 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Brentford | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 2.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.40 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Samuel Barrott 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 3.69
Red cards0.07league 0.11
Cards 5+34%league 41%
Fouls20.7league 22.0
Penalties0.22league 0.18
Home wins38%league 52%
Brentford4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W10 May 25A · Ipswich1–03
- L19 Oct 24A · Manchester United1–22
- W18 Aug 24H · Crystal Palace2–11
- W13 Apr 24H · Sheffield Utd2–03
Burnley4 with this referee
Record0-0-4
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L30 Aug 25A · Manchester United2–35
- L31 Jan 24A · Manchester City1–32
- L25 Nov 23H · West Ham1–21
- L28 Oct 23A · Bournemouth1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brentford12 games · scored 18 · conceded 19
3
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
7
5
76-90
Burnley12 games · scored 14 · conceded 24
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
7
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 12 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
