Brentford
Attack—
Defense risk—
Brentford
8th · 33 pts · 22 played
WDWWL
0–2Full time
Nottingham Forest
17th · 22 pts · 22 played
LLLWD
Our take
Brentford were slight favourites.
Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 63). Brentford had 8 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 2.8 and had to travel 173 km.
Away travel173 kmRest days8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Brentford53%
Draw24%
Nottingham Forest23%
Brentford52%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest23%
Brentford53%
Draw24%
Nottingham Forest23%
Brentford45%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest29%
Brentford52%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest23%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)
No weather data yet
RefereeSamuel Barrott
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 74
Team strength
BrentfordNottingham Forest
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
73
AttackIn forecast
68
73
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrentfordNottingham Forest
1.59
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.95
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
73%
Scored inContext
50%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
10.50
ShotsContext
12.09
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.05
41%
On target shareContext
32%
8.16
Shots in the boxContext
7.64
72%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.94
12.32
Shots allowedContext
12.86
4.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.27
4.36
BlocksContext
4.70
3.05
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.81
70%
Save rateContext
63%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
388
PassesContext
431
309
Accurate passesContext
357
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.09
FoulsContext
11.05
9.05
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.95
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
60%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.00
ShotsContext
14.50
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
44%
On target shareContext
35%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
71%
Box shareContext
56%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.30
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
4.50
BlocksContext
4.40
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
78%
Save rateContext
62%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
458
PassesContext
445
377
Accurate passesContext
373
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.30
FoulsContext
11.40
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brentford
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km26 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nottingham Forest
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel173 km2,760 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brentford |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 13 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 173 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 26 km | 2,760 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brentford
Confirmed XI
1C. Kelleher(G)
3R. Henry
22N. Collins
20K. Ajer
33M. Kayode
27V. Janelt
18Y. Yarmoliuk
7K. Schade
24M. Damsgaard
8M. Jensen
9Thiago
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
34T. Aina
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
16N. Domínguez
10M. Gibbs-White
7C. Hudson-Odoi
19Igor Jesus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brentford
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brentford+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nottingham Forest+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Brentford · Home
2.18points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-1
- Scored
- 2.09
- Conceded
- 0.91
Nottingham Forest · Away
1.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 1.55
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Brentford | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Sunderland | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Everton | W 4–2 A | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Tottenham | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Bournemouth | W 4–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Wolves | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Leeds | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Burnley | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Brighton | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Newcastle | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Liverpool | W 3–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| West Ham | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Manchester United | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Fulham | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Aston Villa | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 33 of 63 · 1.57 per game | 19 of 63 · 0.90 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Brentford wins2 draws2 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game1.57 – 1.57
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets14% · 14%
- 17 Aug 2025Nottingham Forest3–1Brentford
- 1 May 2025Nottingham Forest0–2Brentford
- 21 Dec 2024Brentford0–2Nottingham Forest
- 20 Jan 2024Brentford3–2Nottingham Forest
- 1 Oct 2023Nottingham Forest1–1Brentford
- 29 Apr 2023Brentford2–1Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brentford | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.59 | 0.95 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 2.50 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 55% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 36% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 50% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Brentford | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.30 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brentford | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 5.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.81 | 4.68 | |
| Match total | 10.14 | 10.04 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 15/21 | 77% 17/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 13/21 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 12/21 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.95 | 1.59 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.91 | |
| Match total | 3.81 | 3.50 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 12/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 10/22 | 23% 5/22 | |
| Brentford | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 9.40 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.10 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Samuel Barrott 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 3.73
Red cards0.07league 0.10
Cards 5+31%league 38%
Fouls20.3league 21.3
Penalties0.26league 0.20
Home wins38%league 46%
Brentford5 with this referee
Record4-0-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W29 Nov 25H · Burnley3–10
- W10 May 25A · Ipswich1–03
- L19 Oct 24A · Manchester United1–22
- W18 Aug 24H · Crystal Palace2–11
- W13 Apr 24H · Sheffield Utd2–03
Nottingham Forest8 with this referee
Record4-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Dec 25H · Tottenham3–01
- L26 Oct 25A · Bournemouth0–21
- W18 May 25A · West Ham2–13
- W14 Dec 24H · Aston Villa2–10
- W24 Aug 24A · Southampton1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brentford22 games · scored 35 · conceded 30
5
3
0-15
4
5
16-30
4
6
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
13
10
76-90
Nottingham Forest22 games · scored 21 · conceded 34
3
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
9
31-45
7
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
12
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
