Brighton
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Premier League
Gameweek 20 Sat, Jan 3 · 15:00
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Brighton60.8%fair odds 1.64
Draw21.9%fair odds 4.57
Burnley17.3%fair odds 5.78
Expected goals2.03 – 1.00total 3.03
Likeliest score1–110.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Burnley
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Brighton ↓ · Burnley → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Brighton goals, columns Burnley goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%9.69
- 2–010.0%10.01
- 2–110.0%10.05
- 1–09.3%10.74
- 3–06.8%14.78
- 3–16.7%14.83
- 0–05.4%18.68
- 2–25.0%20.15
- 1–24.9%20.48
- 0–14.3%23.25
Winning margin
18.9%
Brighton by 3+
fair 5.30
18.7%
Brighton by 2
fair 5.35
23.3%
Brighton by 1
fair 4.30
21.9%
Draw
fair 4.57
11.1%
Burnley by 1
fair 8.98
4.5%
Burnley by 2
fair 22.24
1.7%
Burnley by 3+
fair 60.44
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Brighton goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
Burnley goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 60.8% | 59.1% | +1.7 pp |
| Draw | 21.9% | 23.1% | -1.2 pp |
| Burnley win | 17.3% | 17.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 54.4% | +4.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.4% | 52.8% | +2.6 pp |
| Expected goals Brighton | 2.03 | 1.90 | +0.13 |
| Expected goals Burnley | 1.00 | 0.95 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Brighton win60.8%1.64
- Draw21.9%4.57
- Burnley win17.3%5.78
- Double chance Brighton or draw82.7%1.21
- Double chance Brighton or Burnley78.1%1.28
- Double chance Burnley or draw39.2%2.55
- Draw no bet Brighton77.9%1.28
- Draw no bet Burnley22.1%4.52
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.581.0%1.23
- Over 2.558.3%1.71
- Over 3.535.9%2.78
- Over 4.519.0%5.27
- Under 1.519.0%5.27
- Under 2.541.7%2.40
- Under 3.564.1%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes55.4%1.81
- No44.6%2.24
- Yes and over 2.545.0%2.22
- Brighton win and yes29.3%3.42
- Draw and yes16.5%6.04
- Burnley win and yes9.5%10.48
Team goals
- Brighton over 0.586.9%1.15
- Brighton over 1.560.3%1.66
- Brighton over 2.533.2%3.01
- Burnley over 0.563.1%1.58
- Burnley over 1.526.3%3.80
- Burnley over 2.58.0%12.54
- Brighton clean sheet36.9%2.71
- Burnley clean sheet13.1%7.63
- Brighton win to nil31.5%3.17
- Burnley win to nil7.7%12.91
Handicap
- Brighton −1.537.6%2.66
- Brighton −2.518.9%5.30
- Burnley +1.562.4%1.60
- Burnley +2.581.1%1.23
- Burnley −1.56.2%16.26
- Brighton +1.593.8%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored191
Favourite won53.9%
Avg chance given to result40.5%
1X2 Brier0.594
Over 2.5 called right55.5%
BTTS called right52.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 28 | 38.2% | 46.4% |
| 40–50% | 73 | 45.0% | 47.9% |
| 50–60% | 49 | 54.5% | 55.1% |
| 60–70% | 23 | 64.4% | 65.2% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 73.4% | 68.8% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 161 of 191 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5921 | 0.5807 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 41.5% |
| Favourite won | 54.0% | 54.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 161 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 191 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.