Brighton vs Burnley – 3 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 20 Sat, Jan 3 · 15:00 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

Brighton 14th · 25 pts · 19 played DLDLD

2–0Full time

Burnley 19th · 12 pts · 19 played LLDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brighton were clear favourites.

Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 52). Absences weigh more on Burnley. Brighton had 3.8 days of rest, Burnley 3.8 and had to travel 358 km.

Away travel358 kmRest days3.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3

Brighton61%

Draw22%

Burnley17%

Expected goals 2.03 – 1.00

Brighton58%

Draw24%

Burnley19%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.96

Brighton60%

Draw22%

Burnley18%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.01

Brighton53%

Draw24%

Burnley23%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.12

Brighton59%

Draw23%

Burnley18%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.95

Over 2.5 58% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

No weather data yet

RefereeTim Robinson

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 119

Team strength

Brighton

Burnley

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

87 AttackIn forecast 27

85 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Burnley

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brighton

Burnley

1.47 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.05

1.42 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.95

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

79% Scored inContext 68%

21% Clean sheetsContext 16%

13.47 ShotsContext 9.21

4.53 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.69

34% On target shareContext 34%

8.37 Shots in the boxContext 5.32

63% Box shareContext 55%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.29 OffsidesContext 1.87

12.63 Shots allowedContext 15.68

4.21 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.47

3.44 BlocksContext 4.47

2.95 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.83

70% Save rateContext 67%

52% PossessionIn forecast 42%

459 PassesContext 378

387 Accurate passesContext 294

84% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.67

12.37 FoulsContext 9.74

10.26 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

2.58 Yellow cardsContext 1.42

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.94

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

70% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.40 ShotsContext 10.40

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.88

32% On target shareContext 30%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

65% Box shareContext 56%

10% ConversionContext 8%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.43

13.80 Shots allowedContext 13.30

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

4.10 BlocksContext 3.75

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

76% Save rateContext 60%

56% PossessionIn forecast 47%

502 PassesContext 428

428 Accurate passesContext 337

85% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.65

12.10 FoulsContext 9.90

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km286 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Burnley

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel358 km687 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brighton	Burnley
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Dec	3.8Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	358 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	286 km	687 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	2 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 34J. Veltman

25D. Gómez 26Y. Ayari

22K. Mitoma 10G. Rutter 8B. Gruda

19C. Kostoulas

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Burnley Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1M. Dúbravka(G)

23Lucas Pires 12B. Humphreys 18H. Ekdal 29J. Laurent 2K. Walker

11J. Anthony 16Florentino 8L. Ugochukwu 7J. Bruun Larsen

27A. Broja

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brighton Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Burnley Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brighton+1.2 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Burnley-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home 1.78points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-1
Scored: 1.78
Conceded: 1.22

Burnley · Away 0.44points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-7
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Brighton	Burnley
West Ham	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H	L 2–3 A
Arsenal	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 H
Sunderland	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 H
Liverpool	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 H
Aston Villa	L 3–4 H	L 1–2 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Brentford	W 2–1 H	L 1–3 A
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 A	L 0–1 H
Leeds	W 3–0 H	W 2–0 H
Manchester United	L 2–4 A	L 2–3 A
Newcastle	W 2–1 H	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A
Wolves	D 1–1 A	W 3–2 A
Chelsea	W 3–1 A	L 0–2 H
Tottenham	D 2–2 H	L 0–3 A
Bournemouth	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
Manchester City	W 2–1 H	L 1–5 A
Everton	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 H
Fulham	D 1–1 H	L 2–3 H
Points	25 of 57 · 1.32 per game	12 of 57 · 0.63 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Brighton wins4 draws1 Burnley wins

Goals per game0.83 – 1.17 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 33%

13 Apr 2024Burnley1–1Brighton
9 Dec 2023Brighton1–1Burnley
19 Feb 2022Brighton0–3Burnley
14 Aug 2021Burnley1–2Brighton
6 Feb 2021Burnley1–1Brighton
6 Nov 2020Brighton0–0Burnley

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brighton	Burnley	Forecast
Scored per game	1.47	1.05
Conceded per game	1.42	1.95
Match goals	2.89	3.00	3.03
Over 1.5	89%	84%
Over 2.5	58%	53%	58%
Over 3.5	26%	37%
Both teams scored	68%	58%	55%
Clean sheets	21%	16%
Failed to score	21%	32%
Games	19	19

	Brighton	Burnley	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.80
Conceded per game	1.20	2.00
Match goals	2.60	2.80	3.03
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brighton	Burnley	League
Corners
Corners won	4.84	3.74
Corners conceded	4.58	6.11
Match total	9.42	9.85	9.85
Over 8.5	63% 12/19	58% 11/19
Over 9.5	58% 11/19	53% 10/19
Over 10.5	47% 9/19	42% 8/19
Cards
Cards	2.58	1.53
Opponent cards	2.11	1.32
Match total	4.69	2.85	3.83
Over 3.5	74% 14/19	37% 7/19
Over 4.5	47% 9/19	16% 3/19

	Brighton	Burnley	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	4.60
Corners conceded	5.40	5.70
Match total	10.20	10.30	9.85
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.50
Opponent cards	1.60	1.40
Match total	4.10	2.90	3.83
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tim Robinson 119 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.43league 3.69

Red cards0.15league 0.10

Cards 5+43%league 38%

Fouls22.7league 21.4

Penalties0.16league 0.20

Home wins48%league 46%

Brighton5 with this referee

Record0-2-3 Cards · opp.3.4 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D9 Nov 25A · Crystal Palace0–04
L19 Apr 25A · Brentford2–44
L25 Jan 25H · Everton0–14
L17 Dec 23A · Arsenal0–23
D4 Nov 23A · Everton1–12

Burnley5 with this referee

Record4-0-1 Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

W18 Oct 25H · Leeds2–02
L10 Feb 24A · Liverpool1–32
W25 Apr 23A · Blackburn1–05
W15 Mar 23A · Hull City3–12
W22 Oct 22A · Sunderland4–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.