Brighton vs Everton – 31 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 24 Sat, Jan 31 · 15:00 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

Brighton 12th · 30 pts · 23 played DWDDL

1–1Full time

Everton 10th · 33 pts · 23 played WLDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brighton were slight favourites.

Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Brighton. Brighton had 7 days of rest, Everton 4.8 and had to travel 345 km.

Away travel345 kmRest days7 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Brighton52%

Draw24%

Everton23%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.14

Brighton49%

Draw26%

Everton25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10

Brighton53%

Draw24%

Everton23%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.13

Brighton44%

Draw26%

Everton30%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.28

Brighton51%

Draw25%

Everton24%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.10

Over 2.5 57% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 150

Team strength

Brighton

Everton

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

87 AttackIn forecast 61

85 DefenceIn forecast 66

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brighton

Everton

1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.09

1.35 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

83% Scored inContext 70%

22% Clean sheetsContext 39%

13.35 ShotsContext 10.74

4.48 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.13

34% On target shareContext 29%

8.48 Shots in the boxContext 7.22

65% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.07

12.61 Shots allowedContext 13.74

4.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.36

3.62 BlocksContext 4.57

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

67% Save rateContext 69%

53% PossessionIn forecast 43%

470 PassesContext 376

396 Accurate passesContext 299

84% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.96

11.78 FoulsContext 10.35

10.17 Fouls sufferedContext 11.74

2.52 Yellow cardsContext 1.78

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.00 ShotsContext 11.30

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

28% On target shareContext 30%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

69% Box shareContext 67%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.40

14.90 Shots allowedContext 14.70

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

4.78 BlocksContext 4.00

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

71% Save rateContext 75%

54% PossessionIn forecast 42%

495 PassesContext 380

421 Accurate passesContext 302

85% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.89 Team ratingContext 7.00

12.00 FoulsContext 10.90

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km143 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Everton

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel345 km252 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brighton	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Jan	4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 26 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	345 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	143 km	252 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1B. Verbruggen(G)

29M. De Cuyper 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 24F. Kadıoğlu

30P. Groß 17C. Baleba 26Y. Ayari

22K. Mitoma 18D. Welbeck 10G. Rutter

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

32J. Branthwaite 5M. Keane 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

27I. Gueye 37J. Garner

10I. Ndiaye 22K. Dewsbury-Hall 45H. Armstrong

11T. Barry

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brighton Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Everton Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brighton-0.9 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Everton+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home 1.82points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 5-5-1
Scored: 1.73
Conceded: 1.09

Everton · Away 1.55points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 5-2-4
Scored: 0.91
Conceded: 0.91

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Brighton	Everton
Fulham	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	W 2–0 H
Bournemouth	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	W 1–0 A
Manchester City	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
Burnley	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 A
West Ham	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Arsenal	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 H
Sunderland	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Liverpool	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
Aston Villa	L 3–4 H	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 AW 3–0 H
Brentford	W 2–1 H	L 2–4 H
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 H
Leeds	W 3–0 H	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
Manchester United	L 2–4 A	W 1–0 A
Newcastle	W 2–1 H	L 1–4 H
Wolves	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 HW 3–2 A
Chelsea	W 3–1 A	L 0–2 A
Tottenham	D 2–2 H	L 0–3 H
Points	30 of 66 · 1.36 per game	30 of 66 · 1.36 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

3 Brighton wins3 draws4 Everton wins

Goals per game1.30 – 1.50 Over 2.540% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 40%

24 Aug 2025Everton2–0Brighton
25 Jan 2025Brighton0–1Everton
17 Aug 2024Everton0–3Brighton
24 Feb 2024Brighton1–1Everton
4 Nov 2023Everton1–1Brighton
8 May 2023Brighton1–5Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brighton	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.43	1.09
Conceded per game	1.35	1.13
Match goals	2.78	2.22	2.95
Over 1.5	91%	70%
Over 2.5	52%	30%	57%
Over 3.5	22%	13%
Both teams scored	70%	39%	58%
Clean sheets	22%	39%
Failed to score	17%	30%
Games	23	23

	Brighton	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.10
Conceded per game	1.50	0.90
Match goals	2.70	2.00	2.95
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	20%	57%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	30%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brighton	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.17
Corners conceded	4.74	5.22
Match total	9.74	9.39	9.94
Over 8.5	61% 14/23	65% 15/23
Over 9.5	57% 13/23	43% 10/23
Over 10.5	48% 11/23	35% 8/23
Cards
Cards	2.52	1.91
Opponent cards	2.13	1.78
Match total	4.65	3.69	3.84
Over 3.5	74% 17/23	48% 11/23
Over 4.5	48% 11/23	39% 9/23

	Brighton	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	4.00
Corners conceded	5.20	5.22
Match total	9.80	9.22	9.94
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.50
Opponent cards	2.30	2.10
Match total	4.70	3.60	3.84
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 150 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.85league 3.71

Red cards0.13league 0.10

Cards 5+36%league 38%

Fouls21.7league 21.3

Penalties0.23league 0.20

Home wins39%league 45%

Brighton8 with this referee

Record3-3-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.8 Pens for · against2 · 3

W22 Nov 25H · Brentford2–14
D20 Sep 25H · Tottenham2–21
W14 Feb 25H · Chelsea3–01
D31 Aug 24A · Arsenal1–12
L13 Nov 22H · Aston Villa1–22

Everton8 with this referee

Record2-3-3 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

W6 Dec 25H · Nottingham Forest3–04
L18 Aug 25A · Leeds0–12
L26 Apr 25A · Chelsea0–10
D22 Dec 24H · Chelsea0–04
D23 Nov 24H · Brentford0–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.