Brighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Premier League
Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 1 · 15:00
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Our take
Brighton were slight favourites.
Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 63). Brighton had 6.9 days of rest, Leeds 7.8 and had to travel 341 km.
Away travel341 kmRest days6.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Brighton52%
Draw24%
Leeds24%
Brighton51%
Draw25%
Leeds23%
Brighton52%
Draw24%
Leeds24%
Brighton44%
Draw26%
Leeds30%
Brighton51%
Draw25%
Leeds24%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 189
Team strength
Brighton
Leeds
74
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
73
87
AttackIn forecast
69
85
DefenceIn forecast
77
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLeeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrightonLeeds
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
89%
Scored inContext
56%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
12.44
ShotsContext
13.00
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
36%
On target shareContext
28%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
61%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.86
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.33
Shots allowedContext
9.78
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
2.63
BlocksContext
3.14
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
62%
Save rateContext
69%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
412
PassesContext
423
340
Accurate passesContext
346
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.67
FoulsContext
10.22
11.11
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
90%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.50
ShotsContext
14.20
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
36%
On target shareContext
26%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
63%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.86
10.60
Shots allowedContext
9.30
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
2.44
BlocksContext
2.88
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
61%
Save rateContext
69%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
424
PassesContext
440
354
Accurate passesContext
365
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.20
FoulsContext
10.00
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brighton
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km652 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Leeds
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel341 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brighton |
Leeds |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 7.8Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 341 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 652 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
24F. Kadıoğlu
5L. Dunk
6J. van Hecke
27M. Wieffer
26Y. Ayari
17C. Baleba
25D. Gómez
10G. Rutter
11Y. Minteh
18D. Welbeck
Leeds
Confirmed XI
1Lucas Perri(G)
3G. Gudmundsson
15J. Bijol
6J. Rodon
2J. Bogle
4E. Ampadu
19N. Okafor
22A. Tanaka
8S. Longstaff
11B. Aaronson
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brighton
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Leeds
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brighton-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Leeds+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Brighton · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Leeds · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Brighton | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Wolves | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Bournemouth | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Everton | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Fulham | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 18 · 1.00 per game | 8 of 18 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Brighton wins3 draws0 Leeds wins
Goals per game1.17 – 0.50
Over 2.517%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 17%
- 11 Mar 2023Leeds2–2Brighton
- 27 Aug 2022Brighton1–0Leeds
- 15 May 2022Leeds1–1Brighton
- 27 Nov 2021Brighton0–0Leeds
- 1 May 2021Brighton2–0Leeds
- 16 Jan 2021Leeds0–1Brighton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brighton | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.22 | 2.56 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 44% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Brighton | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.22 | 2.56 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 44% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brighton | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 7.25 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 5.34 | 3.23 | 3.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Brighton | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.25 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.30 | 3.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 189 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.56
Red cards0.14league 0.11
Cards 5+34%league 39%
Fouls22.5league 21.9
Penalties0.28league 0.20
Home wins42%league 50%
Brighton8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.1
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- W10 May 25A · Wolves2–01
- W25 Feb 25H · Bournemouth2–12
- L15 Dec 24H · Crystal Palace1–31
- D26 Oct 24H · Wolves2–23
- D1 Apr 23H · Brentford3–32
Leeds10 with this referee
Record2-2-6
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 4
- D27 Sep 25H · Bournemouth2–22
- L4 Mar 23A · Chelsea0–10
- L13 Jan 23A · Aston Villa1–22
- W29 Oct 22A · Liverpool2–11
- L23 Feb 22A · Liverpool0–63
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brighton9 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
0-15
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
Leeds9 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
1
0-15
6
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
9
4
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
