Brighton vs Newcastle – 18 Oct 2025

Premier League Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 18 · 15:00 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

Brighton 12th · 9 pts · 7 played WLDWD

2–1Full time

Newcastle 11th · 9 pts · 7 played DWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Brighton had 13 days of rest, Newcastle 13 and had to travel 468 km.

Away travel468 kmRest days13 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1

Brighton40%

Draw26%

Newcastle34%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.36

Brighton39%

Draw27%

Newcastle33%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28

Brighton40%

Draw26%

Newcastle34%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.35

Brighton33%

Draw26%

Newcastle41%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.53

Brighton40%

Draw27%

Newcastle33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.29

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

No weather data yet

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 128

Team strength

Brighton

Newcastle

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

87 AttackIn forecast 61

85 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brighton

Newcastle

1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86

1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.70

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.37

86% Scored inContext 57%

0% Clean sheetsContext 71%

11.71 ShotsContext 11.43

4.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57

37% On target shareContext 31%

7.29 Shots in the boxContext 7.14

64% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 8%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.25

10.43 Shots allowedContext 8.86

3.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

2.50 BlocksContext 3.60

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71

64% Save rateContext 79%

47% PossessionIn forecast 49%

388 PassesContext 404

320 Accurate passesContext 321

82% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.96

13.14 FoulsContext 12.43

12.43 Fouls sufferedContext 12.29

3.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.14

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

90% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 60%

13.70 ShotsContext 11.80

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

38% On target shareContext 36%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

64% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.60

10.50 Shots allowedContext 11.10

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

2.78 BlocksContext 3.63

2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

69% Save rateContext 81%

49% PossessionIn forecast 50%

408 PassesContext 413

342 Accurate passesContext 335

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.95

12.00 FoulsContext 11.80

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km475 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel468 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brighton	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13Premier League 2025-2026, 5 Oct	13Premier League 2025-2026, 5 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	468 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	475 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

26Y. Ayari 17C. Baleba

25D. Gómez 10G. Rutter 11Y. Minteh

18D. Welbeck

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

33D. Burn 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 2K. Trippier

7Joelinton 8S. Tonali 39Bruno Guimarães

10A. Gordon 27N. Woltemade 20A. Elanga

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brighton Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brighton+0.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Newcastle+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-0
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.33

Newcastle · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-0
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Brighton	Newcastle
Wolves	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Bournemouth	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 A
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Brighton wins4 draws2 Newcastle wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 10%

4 May 2025Brighton1–1Newcastle
19 Oct 2024Newcastle0–1Brighton
11 May 2024Newcastle1–1Brighton
2 Sep 2023Brighton3–1Newcastle
18 May 2023Newcastle4–1Brighton
13 Aug 2022Brighton0–0Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brighton	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.43	0.86
Conceded per game	1.43	0.71
Match goals	2.86	1.57	2.86
Over 1.5	100%	43%
Over 2.5	57%	29%	54%
Over 3.5	29%	14%
Both teams scored	86%	29%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	71%
Failed to score	14%	43%
Games	7	7

	Brighton	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.43	0.86
Conceded per game	1.43	0.71
Match goals	2.86	1.57	2.86
Over 1.5	100%	43%
Over 2.5	57%	29%	54%
Over 3.5	29%	14%
Both teams scored	86%	29%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	71%
Failed to score	14%	43%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brighton	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	6.29
Corners conceded	4.00	4.43
Match total	8.29	10.72	9.71
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	3.14	1.29
Opponent cards	3.00	2.43
Match total	6.14	3.72	3.97
Over 3.5	86% 6/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	71% 5/7	29% 2/7

	Brighton	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	6.70
Corners conceded	4.00	4.50
Match total	8.80	11.20	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.30
Opponent cards	2.50	2.90
Match total	5.00	4.20	3.97
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 128 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.03league 3.83

Red cards0.11league 0.14

Cards 5+40%league 44%

Fouls22.9league 22.3

Penalties0.23league 0.21

Home wins43%league 48%

Brighton12 with this referee

Record3-5-4 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 5

D4 May 25H · Newcastle1–11
D30 Dec 24A · Aston Villa2–23
W24 Aug 24H · Manchester United2–11
L19 May 24H · Manchester United0–21
D22 Jan 24H · Wolves0–01

Newcastle18 with this referee

Record6-8-4 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.2 Pens for · against5 · 0 Reds2

D16 Aug 25A · Aston Villa0–01
D4 May 25A · Brighton1–11
L25 Nov 24H · West Ham0–21
D5 Oct 24A · Everton0–02
W17 Aug 24H · Southampton1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.