Burnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were clear favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 63). Arsenal usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Burnley had 6 days of rest, Arsenal 6 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Burnley17%
Draw21%
Arsenal62%
Burnley17%
Draw23%
Arsenal60%
Burnley16%
Draw21%
Arsenal62%
Burnley12%
Draw19%
Arsenal69%
Burnley18%
Draw23%
Arsenal59%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Burnley)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 137
Team strength
Burnley
Arsenal
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
93
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
94
27
AttackIn forecast
86
25
DefenceIn forecast
95
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BurnleyArsenal
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.78
1.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
2.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.59
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
78%
Scored inContext
89%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
7.89
ShotsContext
14.78
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
39%
On target shareContext
28%
4.56
Shots in the boxContext
11.56
55%
Box shareContext
77%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.17
18.33
Shots allowedContext
8.00
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.71
5.11
BlocksContext
3.50
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
75%
Save rateContext
84%
35%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
323
PassesContext
497
246
Accurate passesContext
426
76%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.70
Team ratingContext
7.10
9.56
FoulsContext
9.89
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.30
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
2.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.52
+0.63
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
8.90
ShotsContext
15.10
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
40%
On target shareContext
31%
5.10
Shots in the boxContext
12.50
55%
Box shareContext
82%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.13
17.50
Shots allowedContext
7.90
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.25
4.90
BlocksContext
3.56
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.88
75%
Save rateContext
83%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
342
PassesContext
494
265
Accurate passesContext
422
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.06
9.10
FoulsContext
10.30
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Burnley
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km270 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arsenal
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel292 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Burnley |
Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 270 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman
5M. Estève
6A. Tuanzebe
29J. Laurent
2K. Walker
11J. Anthony
16Florentino
24J. Cullen
8L. Ugochukwu
19Z. Flemming
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
6Gabriel Magalhães
2W. Saliba
12J. Timber
41D. Rice
36Martín Zubimendi
10E. Eze
19L. Trossard
14V. Gyökeres
7B. Saka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Burnley
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Arsenal
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Burnley+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arsenal-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Burnley · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.50
Arsenal · Away
2.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Burnley | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | W 2–0 H | W 5–0 H |
| Manchester City | L 1–5 A | D 1–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Liverpool | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Manchester United | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 10 of 15 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Burnley wins2 draws3 Arsenal wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 50%
- 17 Feb 2024Burnley0–5Arsenal
- 11 Nov 2023Arsenal3–1Burnley
- 23 Jan 2022Arsenal0–0Burnley
- 18 Sep 2021Burnley0–1Arsenal
- 6 Mar 2021Burnley1–1Arsenal
- 13 Dec 2020Arsenal0–1Burnley
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Burnley | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.22 | 2.11 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 22% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Burnley | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.22 | 2.11 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 22% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Burnley | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.78 | 7.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.56 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 10.88 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.22 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 2.78 | 2.33 | 3.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 11% 1/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Burnley | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 6.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.60 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 2.50 | 3.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 137 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 3.56
Red cards0.14league 0.11
Cards 5+36%league 39%
Fouls21.7league 21.9
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins39%league 50%
Burnley7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Dec 23H · Sheffield Utd5–02
- L1 Mar 22H · Leicester0–21
- D23 Oct 21A · Southampton2–23
- D25 Sep 21A · Leicester2–24
- L19 May 21H · Liverpool0–30
Arsenal15 with this referee
Record7-5-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L31 Aug 25A · Liverpool0–12
- W20 Apr 25A · Ipswich4–00
- W16 Mar 25H · Chelsea1–03
- D18 Jan 25H · Aston Villa2–22
- D8 Dec 24A · Fulham1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Burnley9 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 16 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
46-60
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 18 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
5
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
