Burnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester City were clear favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Manchester City. Burnley had 3.3 days of rest, Manchester City 3.1 and had to travel 35 km.
Away travel35 kmRest days3.3 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Burnley12%
Draw17%
Manchester City70%
Burnley16%
Draw22%
Manchester City62%
Burnley12%
Draw18%
Manchester City70%
Burnley9%
Draw14%
Manchester City77%
Burnley13%
Draw19%
Manchester City67%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Burnley)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndy Madley
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 137
Team strength
Burnley
Manchester City
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
27
AttackIn forecast
92
25
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BurnleyManchester City
1.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.03
2.03
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
64%
Scored inContext
88%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
41%
9.12
ShotsContext
14.88
3.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.31
33%
On target shareContext
36%
5.73
Shots in the boxContext
11.03
61%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.96
OffsidesContext
1.74
16.45
Shots allowedContext
9.81
5.61
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.41
5.10
BlocksContext
3.07
3.59
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.55
63%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
382
PassesContext
586
300
Accurate passesContext
519
79%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.68
Team ratingContext
7.11
9.97
FoulsContext
9.94
9.03
Fouls sufferedContext
11.28
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.84
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
50%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.80
ShotsContext
16.70
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
33%
On target shareContext
37%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
11.60
66%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
15.00
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.33
BlocksContext
3.22
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
47%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
404
PassesContext
597
327
Accurate passesContext
534
81%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.65
Team ratingContext
7.10
10.00
FoulsContext
9.70
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Burnley
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km237 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Manchester City
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel35 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Burnley |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.3Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 35 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 237 km | 524 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 12 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman
5M. Estève
18H. Ekdal
12B. Humphreys
2K. Walker
11J. Anthony
29J. Laurent
20J. Ward-Prowse
17L. Tchaouna
19Z. Flemming
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
21R. Aït-Nouri
15A. Guéhi
45A. Khusanov
27M. Nunes
33N. O'Reilly
20Bernardo Silva
11J. Doku
10M. Cherki
42A. Semenyo
9E. Haaland
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Burnley
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Burnley+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Manchester City+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Burnley · Home
0.69points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-9
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 1.56
Manchester City · Away
1.75points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-4
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.06
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Burnley | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–4 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Brighton | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Fulham | L 1–3 AL 2–3 H | W 3–0 HW 5–4 A |
| Bournemouth | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Everton | L 0–2 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Brentford | L 3–4 HL 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Chelsea | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| West Ham | L 0–2 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Sunderland | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Liverpool | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Newcastle | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Wolves | W 3–2 A | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Leeds | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 20 of 96 · 0.63 per game | 64 of 93 · 2.06 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Burnley wins0 draws7 Manchester City wins
Goals per game0.29 – 3.14
Over 2.557%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets0% · 71%
- 27 Sep 2025Manchester City5–1Burnley
- 31 Jan 2024Manchester City3–1Burnley
- 11 Aug 2023Burnley0–3Manchester City
- 2 Apr 2022Burnley0–2Manchester City
- 16 Oct 2021Manchester City2–0Burnley
- 3 Feb 2021Burnley0–2Manchester City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Burnley | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.03 | 2.03 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.03 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 3.06 | 2.94 | 3.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 63% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 41% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 13% | |
| Games | 33 | 32 |
| Burnley | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 3.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Burnley | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.73 | 5.94 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.82 | 3.87 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 9.81 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 19/33 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 17/33 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 12/33 | 35% 11/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.79 | 1.84 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.18 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 2.97 | 3.97 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 13/33 | 66% 21/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 18% 6/33 | 34% 11/32 | |
| Burnley | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 7.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 11.30 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.40 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andy Madley 137 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 3.75
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+28%league 38%
Fouls23.1league 21.5
Penalties0.18league 0.21
Home wins46%league 42%
Burnley4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D17 Jan 26A · Liverpool1–12
- W15 Dec 24A · Norwich2–11
- W20 Apr 24A · Sheffield Utd4–10
- D3 Mar 21H · Leicester1–10
Manchester City11 with this referee
Record7-2-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W6 Dec 25H · Sunderland3–01
- W25 May 25A · Fulham2–00
- W15 Feb 25H · Newcastle4–00
- L25 May 24H · Manchester United1–21
- W3 Mar 24H · Manchester United3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Burnley33 games · scored 34 · conceded 67
2
11
0-15
5
6
16-30
8
16
31-45
5
7
46-60
4
10
61-75
10
17
76-90
Manchester City32 games · scored 65 · conceded 29
8
0-15
9
4
16-30
19
5
31-45
8
6
46-60
13
8
61-75
8
6
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 9 · conceded 23
4
0-15
3
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
61-75
1
5
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
1
0-15
4
5
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
