Burnley vs Wolves – 24 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 38 Sun, May 24 · 16:00 Turf Moor, Burnley

Burnley 19th · 21 pts · 37 played LLLDL

1–1Full time

Wolves 20th · 19 pts · 37 played LLDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Burnley were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Burnley. Burnley had 5.8 days of rest, Wolves 7 and had to travel 135 km.

Away travel135 kmRest days5.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Burnley46%

Draw26%

Wolves28%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.18

Burnley45%

Draw27%

Wolves29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Burnley46%

Draw26%

Wolves28%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.18

Burnley39%

Draw27%

Wolves35%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.33

Burnley46%

Draw26%

Wolves28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.17

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Burnley)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndrew Kitchen

Cards per match 3.1
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 81

Team strength

Burnley

Wolves

46 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

27 AttackIn forecast 41

25 DefenceIn forecast 46

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Burnley

Attack—

Defense risk—

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Burnley

Wolves

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.81

0.85 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

1.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

62% Scored inContext 49%

11% Clean sheetsContext 11%

9.16 ShotsContext 9.54

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.31

32% On target shareContext 34%

5.65 Shots in the boxContext 6.21

60% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 7%

1.97 OffsidesContext 1.76

16.76 Shots allowedContext 13.84

5.73 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75

5.18 BlocksContext 4.34

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.97

64% Save rateContext 62%

42% PossessionIn forecast 43%

380 PassesContext 367

299 Accurate passesContext 292

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.71

10.41 FoulsContext 13.05

9.11 Fouls sufferedContext 10.86

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.08

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 37 and 37 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.88 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

2.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

50% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.30 ShotsContext 10.60

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

32% On target shareContext 32%

6.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

65% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 8%

1.86 OffsidesContext 1.30

17.40 Shots allowedContext 14.00

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

5.30 BlocksContext 3.78

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

59% Save rateContext 59%

43% PossessionIn forecast 42%

389 PassesContext 338

312 Accurate passesContext 266

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.76

11.60 FoulsContext 11.90

8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Burnley

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km583 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Wolves

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel135 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Burnley	Wolves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Premier League 2025-2026, 18 May	7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	135 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	583 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	—	—

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Burnley Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13Max Weiss(G)

23Lucas Pires 12B. Humphreys 6A. Tuanzebe 2K. Walker

8L. Ugochukwu 16Florentino

11J. Anthony 28H. Mejbri 17L. Tchaouna

19Z. Flemming

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1José Sá(G)

37L. Krejčí 4S. Bueno 15Y. Mosquera

6D. Møller Wolfe 47A. Gomes 7André 21R. Gomes

11H. Hwang 36Mateus Mané

9A. Armstrong

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Burnley Absences are shown before kick-off

Wolves Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Burnley+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Wolves+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Burnley · Home 0.67points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 2-6-10
Scored: 0.94
Conceded: 1.56

Wolves · Away 0.28points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 0-5-13
Scored: 0.39
Conceded: 1.83

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Burnley	Wolves
Arsenal	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	D 2–2 HL 1–2 A
Aston Villa	D 2–2 HL 1–2 A	W 2–0 HL 0–1 A
Leeds	L 1–3 AW 2–0 H	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H
Manchester City	L 0–1 HL 1–5 A	L 0–2 AL 0–4 H
Nottingham Forest	L 1–4 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 AL 0–1 H
Brighton	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A	L 0–3 AD 1–1 H
Fulham	L 1–3 AL 2–3 H	D 1–1 HL 0–3 A
Bournemouth	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
Everton	L 0–2 AD 0–0 H	D 1–1 AL 2–3 H
Brentford	L 3–4 HL 1–3 A	D 2–2 AL 0–2 H
Chelsea	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H	L 1–3 HL 0–3 A
Crystal Palace	W 3–2 AL 0–1 H	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
West Ham	L 0–2 HL 2–3 A	L 0–4 AW 3–0 H
Sunderland	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Tottenham	D 2–2 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A
Liverpool	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A
Manchester United	D 2–2 HL 2–3 A	D 1–1 AL 1–4 H
Newcastle	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Points	18 of 108 · 0.50 per game	19 of 108 · 0.53 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Burnley wins2 draws1 Wolves wins

Goals per game1.57 – 0.71 Over 2.543% Both scored43% Clean sheets43% · 29%

26 Oct 2025Wolves2–3Burnley
2 Apr 2024Burnley1–1Wolves
5 Dec 2023Wolves1–0Burnley
24 Apr 2022Burnley1–0Wolves
1 Dec 2021Wolves0–0Burnley
25 Apr 2021Wolves0–4Burnley

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Burnley	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.70
Conceded per game	2.00	1.81
Match goals	3.00	2.51	2.77
Over 1.5	84%	78%
Over 2.5	51%	46%	52%
Over 3.5	41%	24%
Both teams scored	57%	43%	56%
Clean sheets	11%	11%
Failed to score	38%	51%
Games	37	37

	Burnley	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	0.80
Conceded per game	2.20	1.70
Match goals	3.00	2.50	2.77
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Burnley	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	3.64	3.47
Corners conceded	5.94	6.03
Match total	9.58	9.50	10.08
Over 8.5	58% 21/36	71% 24/34
Over 9.5	53% 19/36	59% 20/34
Over 10.5	36% 13/36	35% 12/34
Cards
Cards	1.78	2.16
Opponent cards	1.22	1.73
Match total	3.00	3.89	3.91
Over 3.5	41% 15/37	57% 21/37
Over 4.5	19% 7/37	41% 15/37

	Burnley	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	3.67
Corners conceded	6.22	5.56
Match total	10.44	9.23	10.08
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.10
Opponent cards	1.10	2.50
Match total	2.90	4.60	3.91
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andrew Kitchen 81 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.05league 3.79

Red cards0.09league 0.12

Cards 5+19%league 38%

Fouls22.7league 21.6

Penalties0.14league 0.21

Home wins48%league 43%

Burnley7 with this referee

Record3-3-1 Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.1 Pens for · against0 · 0

L5 Oct 25A · Aston Villa1–21
W3 May 25H · Millwall3–11
W29 Mar 25H · Bristol City1–00
D15 Feb 25A · Preston0–03
W4 Jan 25A · Blackburn1–02

Wolves1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L8 Nov 25A · Chelsea0–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.