Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Arouca. Casa Pia had 6 days of rest, Arouca 6.8 and had to travel 187 km.
Away travel187 kmRest days6 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Casa Pia37%
Draw29%
Arouca35%
Casa Pia42%
Draw27%
Arouca31%
Casa Pia37%
Draw29%
Arouca35%
Casa Pia30%
Draw28%
Arouca42%
Casa Pia38%
Draw27%
Arouca35%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rio Maior)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDiogo Rosa
- Cards per match 7.0
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 4
Team strength
Casa Pia
Arouca
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
13
AttackIn forecast
28
25
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaArouca
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.19
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
57%
Scored inContext
67%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
8.10
ShotsContext
10.05
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.45
35%
On target shareContext
33%
4.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
56%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.95
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.95
3.95
BlocksContext
3.89
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.84
59%
Save rateContext
56%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
312
PassesContext
395
236
Accurate passesContext
326
76%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.61
14.90
FoulsContext
13.76
14.19
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.57
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
7.30
ShotsContext
11.30
2.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
34%
On target shareContext
35%
4.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
59%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.14
14.20
Shots allowedContext
11.90
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.10
BlocksContext
4.00
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
62%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
298
PassesContext
395
220
Accurate passesContext
324
74%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.69
15.00
FoulsContext
12.80
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arouca
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel187 km126 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 6.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | 187 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 126 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
43David Sousa
3Kaly
4João Goulart
5A. Conté
8Rafael Brito
80L. Ofori
72Gaizka Larrazabal
13Oluwakorede Osundina
90Cassiano
29J. Livolant
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
25B. Kuipers
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
21T. Fukui
22E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
0.80points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-4
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.90
Arouca · Away
1.10points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-5
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.30
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| FC Porto | W 2–1 HL 0–4 A | L 0–4 H |
| AVS | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 HL 0–6 A |
| Rio Ave | L 1–3 A | W 3–0 AD 3–3 H |
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Tondela | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Alverca | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Benfica | D 2–2 A | L 0–5 A |
| Estrela | L 3–5 H | L 1–3 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 A | L 0–4 H |
| Estoril | D 2–2 H | L 3–4 A |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Famalicao | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 16 of 60 · 0.80 per game | 23 of 60 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Casa Pia wins2 draws1 Arouca wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.43
Over 2.514%
Both scored14%
Clean sheets71% · 43%
- 14 Sep 2025Arouca0–2Casa Pia
- 4 May 2025Arouca0–0Casa Pia
- 20 Dec 2024Casa Pia3–1Arouca
- 18 Feb 2024Casa Pia1–0Arouca
- 17 Sep 2023Arouca0–1Casa Pia
- 25 Feb 2023Arouca2–0Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 2.19 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.43 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 67% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 52% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 52% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 33% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Casa Pia | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.90 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.53 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.42 | 9.10 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 11/19 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 10/19 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 7/19 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.62 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 5.72 | 5.43 | 5.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 18/21 | 81% 17/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 15/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Casa Pia | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.00 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 5.80 | 5.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Diogo Rosa Portugal · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.75league 4.94
Red cards0.25league 0.29
Cards 5+75%league 60%
Fouls30.8league 27.0
Penalties0.50league 0.45
Home wins75%league 40%
Casa Pia1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Dec 25A · Santa Clara0–14
AroucaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Casa Pia20 games · scored 19 · conceded 34
4
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
5
61-75
3
7
76-90
Arouca20 games · scored 26 · conceded 41
5
5
0-15
1
5
16-30
5
11
31-45
7
7
46-60
6
5
61-75
2
8
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
