Casa Pia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Casa Pia12.9%fair odds 7.76
Draw21.3%fair odds 4.69
FC Porto65.8%fair odds 1.52
Expected goals0.77 – 2.00total 2.77
Likeliest score0–212.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Porto
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Casa Pia ↓ · FC Porto → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Casa Pia goals, columns FC Porto goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–212.6%7.96
- 0–112.0%8.30
- 1–110.1%9.86
- 1–29.6%10.37
- 0–38.4%11.92
- 0–06.8%14.75
- 1–36.4%15.54
- 1–04.3%23.25
- 0–44.2%23.82
- 2–23.7%27.03
Winning margin
0.8%
Casa Pia by 3+
fair 121.02
3.0%
Casa Pia by 2
fair 33.42
9.1%
Casa Pia by 1
fair 11.02
21.3%
Draw
fair 4.69
24.5%
FC Porto by 1
fair 4.08
20.4%
FC Porto by 2
fair 4.91
20.9%
FC Porto by 3+
fair 4.78
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Casa Pia goals
46%0
36%1
14%2
3%3
1%4+
FC Porto goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia win | 12.9% | 13.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 21.3% | 20.9% | +0.4 pp |
| FC Porto win | 65.8% | 65.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 54.7% | -2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.8% | 48.9% | -2.1 pp |
| Expected goals Casa Pia | 0.77 | 0.81 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals FC Porto | 2.00 | 2.06 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Casa Pia win12.9%7.76
- Draw21.3%4.69
- FC Porto win65.8%1.52
- Double chance Casa Pia or draw34.2%2.92
- Double chance Casa Pia or FC Porto78.7%1.27
- Double chance FC Porto or draw87.1%1.15
- Draw no bet Casa Pia16.4%6.10
- Draw no bet FC Porto83.6%1.20
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.576.9%1.30
- Over 2.552.3%1.91
- Over 3.530.1%3.32
- Over 4.514.8%6.78
- Under 1.523.1%4.32
- Under 2.547.7%2.10
- Under 3.569.9%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes46.8%2.13
- No53.2%1.88
- Yes and over 2.536.7%2.72
- Casa Pia win and yes6.2%16.22
- Draw and yes14.5%6.88
- FC Porto win and yes26.1%3.82
Team goals
- Casa Pia over 0.553.6%1.87
- Casa Pia over 1.518.0%5.57
- Casa Pia over 2.54.3%23.34
- FC Porto over 0.586.5%1.16
- FC Porto over 1.559.5%1.68
- FC Porto over 2.532.4%3.09
- Casa Pia clean sheet13.5%7.40
- FC Porto clean sheet46.4%2.15
- Casa Pia win to nil6.7%14.87
- FC Porto win to nil39.6%2.52
Handicap
- Casa Pia −1.53.8%26.19
- Casa Pia −2.50.8%121.02
- FC Porto +1.596.2%1.04
- FC Porto +2.599.2%1.01
- FC Porto −1.541.3%2.42
- Casa Pia +1.558.7%1.70
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored179
Favourite won61.5%
Avg chance given to result44.6%
1X2 Brier0.529
Over 2.5 called right58.1%
BTTS called right55.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 32 | 37.7% | 46.9% |
| 40–50% | 61 | 44.8% | 50.8% |
| 50–60% | 36 | 54.5% | 61.1% |
| 60–70% | 23 | 65.7% | 87.0% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 75.3% | 76.2% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 84.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 150 of 179 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5235 | 0.5115 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.9% | 46.6% |
| Favourite won | 62.7% | 62.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 150 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 179 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.