Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Casa Pia. Casa Pia had 10 days of rest, FC Porto 4 and had to travel 203 km.
Away travel203 kmRest days10 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 3
Casa Pia13%
Draw21%
FC Porto66%
Casa Pia13%
Draw20%
FC Porto68%
Casa Pia13%
Draw21%
FC Porto66%
Casa Pia9%
Draw18%
FC Porto72%
Casa Pia13%
Draw21%
FC Porto66%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rio Maior)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalPedro Ramalho
- Cards per match 6.4
- Penalties per match 0.57
- Matches 14
Team strength
Casa Pia
FC Porto
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
13
AttackIn forecast
74
25
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaFC Porto
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.11
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.21
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.53
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
58%
Scored inContext
95%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
79%
8.16
ShotsContext
14.26
3.12
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.53
34%
On target shareContext
39%
4.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.89
56%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.18
13.53
Shots allowedContext
9.58
4.53
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.19
3.84
BlocksContext
3.63
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.21
55%
Save rateContext
94%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
319
PassesContext
454
243
Accurate passesContext
386
76%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.66
Team ratingContext
7.00
15.16
FoulsContext
13.37
14.21
Fouls sufferedContext
11.74
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
0.79
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.52
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
60%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
7.50
ShotsContext
14.70
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
37%
On target shareContext
40%
4.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
59%
Box shareContext
68%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.70
Shots allowedContext
9.40
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.56
4.10
BlocksContext
3.30
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
50%
Save rateContext
91%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
314
PassesContext
474
238
Accurate passesContext
406
76%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.98
15.20
FoulsContext
12.70
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Porto
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel203 km3,887 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Jan | 4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | 203 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 3,887 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
43David Sousa
3Kaly
4João Goulart
5A. Conté
8Rafael Brito
80L. Ofori
72Gaizka Larrazabal
29J. Livolant
90Cassiano
21Tiago Morais
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
5J. Bednarek
3Thiago Silva
52Martim Fernandes
10Gabri Veiga
22A. Varela
13P. Rosario
17Borja Sainz
9Samu Omorodion
11Pepê
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
0.56points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-5-4
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 2.00
FC Porto · Away
3.00points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-0-0
- Scored
- 2.10
- Conceded
- 0.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| AVS | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Rio Ave | L 1–3 A | W 3–0 A |
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Tondela | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Alverca | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Benfica | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Estrela | L 3–5 H | W 3–1 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 A | W 2–1 H |
| Estoril | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Famalicao | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Arouca | W 2–0 A | W 4–0 A |
| Nacional | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 15 of 54 · 0.83 per game | 52 of 54 · 2.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Casa Pia wins1 draws6 FC Porto wins
Goals per game0.43 – 2.00
Over 2.557%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets14% · 57%
- 24 Aug 2025FC Porto4–0Casa Pia
- 12 Apr 2025Casa Pia0–1FC Porto
- 2 Dec 2024FC Porto2–0Casa Pia
- 21 Apr 2024Casa Pia1–2FC Porto
- 9 Dec 2023FC Porto3–1Casa Pia
- 14 May 2023FC Porto2–1Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 2.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.21 | |
| Match goals | 3.05 | 2.32 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 53% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 21% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 79% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 5% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Casa Pia | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.50 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 3.12 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 8.41 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 10/18 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 6/18 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.11 | 2.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.63 | 2.79 | |
| Match total | 5.74 | 5.05 | 5.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 84% 16/19 | 79% 15/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 68% 13/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Casa Pia | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 3.14 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.14 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 3.90 | 5.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Pedro Ramalho Portugal · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.14league 4.94
Red cards0.29league 0.28
Cards 5+79%league 58%
Fouls28.9league 27.1
Penalties0.57league 0.47
Home wins21%league 40%
Casa Pia4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W15 Aug 25A · AVS2–04
- D19 Apr 25A · AVS1–12
- W20 Jan 25A · Boavista3–22
- L10 Aug 24H · Boavista0–12
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Casa Pia18 games · scored 17 · conceded 33
3
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
7
31-45
3
6
46-60
5
5
61-75
3
7
76-90
FC Porto19 games · scored 40 · conceded 4
5
0-15
5
1
16-30
7
31-45
9
2
46-60
8
1
61-75
6
76-90
Casa Pia9 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 21 · conceded 4
2
0-15
4
16-30
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
5
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
