Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, May 15 · 16:00 Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Charleroi 3rd · 21 pts · 8 played
First leg3–1 VS— Compare
Kortrijk 18th · 3 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel95 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Charleroi—%
Draw—%
Kortrijk—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Charleroi)

Forecast from 30 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Charleroi and Kortrijk. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

CharleroiKortrijk
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
38 Current StrengthIn forecast 12
43 AttackIn forecast 10
50 DefenceIn forecast 16
80 Form indexContext 13
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Charleroi

Attack—
Defense risk—

Kortrijk

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

CharleroiKortrijk
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.25
0.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25
1.86 xGVia Att/Def 0.81
0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.15
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.56
100% Scored inContext 25%
50% Clean sheetsContext 13%
16.75 ShotsContext 11.25
5.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.63
34% On target shareContext 23%
11.63 Shots in the boxContext 6.88
69% Box shareContext 59%
12% ConversionContext 2%
1.86 OffsidesContext 3.00
10.88 Shots allowedContext 14.25
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.25
4.57 BlocksContext 3.00
2.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
79% Save rateContext 62%
57% PossessionIn forecast 44%
496 PassesContext 396
421 Accurate passesContext 314
85% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.10 Team ratingContext 6.47
10.13 FoulsContext 12.00
13.38 Fouls sufferedContext 9.88
1.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.75
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.30
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.84 xGVia Att/Def 0.81
0.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.15
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.51
100% Scored inContext 30%
50% Clean sheetsContext 20%
16.80 ShotsContext 10.40
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.60
34% On target shareContext 25%
11.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.30
70% Box shareContext 60%
11% ConversionContext 3%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.86
10.40 Shots allowedContext 14.60
3.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20
4.50 BlocksContext 3.20
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
83% Save rateContext 67%
58% PossessionIn forecast 43%
484 PassesContext 383
411 Accurate passesContext 297
85% Pass accuracyContext 78%
7.08 Team ratingContext 6.57
10.10 FoulsContext 11.80
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Charleroi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km107 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 80 · 12 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
  • W11 OctA · Standard Liege1–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Cercle Brugge3–21.9 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Zulte Waregem1–01.2 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Union St. Gilloise2–31.2 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Kortrijk3–11.8 xPts
Kortrijk
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel95 km152 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 13 · 3 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • L10 OctA · Genk0–30.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · SK Beveren1–01.2 xPts
  • L13 SepA · RAAL La Louvière0–31.0 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Zulte Waregem0–21.0 xPts
  • L3 SepA · Anderlecht0–10.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Charleroi Kortrijk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 8 May7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 8 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km95 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways107 km152 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Charleroi Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Standard Liege (A) 1–0, 11 Oct
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi 6A. Boukamir
20F. Mbemba 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Kortrijk Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Genk (A) 0–3, 10 Oct
1P. Gunnarsson(G)
3M. Anderson 4H. Murray-Campbell 21A. Drouhin 36R. Kohon
70A. Phillips 35B. Lambert 19B. Dejaegere
68T. Ambrose 10G. Koyalipou 11S. Campbell

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Charleroi Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Kortrijk Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Charleroi · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
2.50
Conceded
1.50
Kortrijk · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-0-4
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentCharleroiKortrijk
Zulte Waregem W 1–0 A L 0–2 H
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Charleroi wins0 draws1 Kortrijk wins
Goals per game1.33 – 0.67 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%
  • 29 Aug 2026Kortrijk1–3Charleroi
  • 3 Feb 2024Kortrijk1–0Charleroi
  • 23 Sep 2023Charleroi1–0Kortrijk

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

CharleroiKortrijkForecast
Scored per game 2.000.25
Conceded per game 0.882.25
Match goals 2.882.50
Over 1.5 63%75%
Over 2.5 50%63%
Over 3.5 50%13%
Both teams scored 50%13%
Clean sheets 50%13%
Failed to score 0%75%
Games88
CharleroiKortrijkForecast
Scored per game 1.600.25
Conceded per game 1.002.25
Match goals 2.602.50
Over 1.5 60%75%
Over 2.5 40%63%
Over 3.5 40%13%
Both teams scored 40%13%
Clean sheets 40%13%
Failed to score 20%75%
Games108

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

CharleroiKortrijkLeague
Corners
Corners won5.503.43
Corners conceded4.386.29
Match total9.889.7210.01
Over 8.563% 5/871% 5/7
Over 9.563% 5/857% 4/7
Over 10.563% 5/843% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.132.00
Opponent cards1.381.63
Match total2.513.633.36
Over 3.525% 2/863% 5/8
Over 4.50% 0/825% 2/8
CharleroiKortrijkLeague
Corners
Corners won6.503.67
Corners conceded4.706.56
Match total11.2010.2310.01
Over 8.570% 7/1078% 7/9
Over 9.570% 7/1067% 6/9
Over 10.570% 7/1056% 5/9
Cards
Cards1.401.80
Opponent cards1.401.50
Match total2.803.303.36
Over 3.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Over 4.510% 1/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Charleroi8 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 76-90
Kortrijk8 games · scored 2 · conceded 18
3 0-15
1 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 46-60
5 61-75
5 76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
4 76-90
Kortrijk10 games · scored 3 · conceded 19
3 0-15
1 16-30
1 5 31-45
1 46-60
5 61-75
1 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
KVC Westerlo Lommel United May 1516:00 KV Mechelen OH Leuven May 1516:00 Anderlecht Antwerp May 1516:00 Zulte Waregem RAAL La Louvière May 1516:00 Gent Union St. Gilloise May 1516:00 Standard Liege Genk May 1516:00 St. Truiden Club Brugge KV May 1516:00 Charleroi Kortrijk May 1516:00 Cercle Brugge SK Beveren May 1516:00