Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, May 15 · 16:00 AFAS Stadion, Malines
KV Mechelen 14th · 6 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
OH Leuven 15th · 5 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel24 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
KV Mechelen—%
Draw—%
OH Leuven—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Malines)

Forecast from 30 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for KV Mechelen and OH Leuven. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

KV MechelenOH Leuven
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
23 Current StrengthIn forecast 18
18 AttackIn forecast 17
23 DefenceIn forecast 30
20 Form indexContext 25
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

KV Mechelen

Attack—
Defense risk—

OH Leuven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

KV MechelenOH Leuven
1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.75
2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75
1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.07
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.38
+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.32
38% Scored inContext 63%
13% Clean sheetsContext 13%
11.13 ShotsContext 12.75
3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.38
28% On target shareContext 19%
7.88 Shots in the boxContext 8.50
68% Box shareContext 69%
10% ConversionContext 6%
2.86 OffsidesContext 1.50
14.50 Shots allowedContext 14.75
5.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.00 BlocksContext 5.14
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14
58% Save rateContext 63%
47% PossessionIn forecast 48%
407 PassesContext 418
317 Accurate passesContext 329
78% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.55 Team ratingContext 6.72
12.25 FoulsContext 11.25
13.88 Fouls sufferedContext 11.38
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70
2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70
0.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.01
1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.06
+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.31
40% Scored inContext 60%
10% Clean sheetsContext 10%
10.90 ShotsContext 12.70
3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.60
28% On target shareContext 21%
7.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.60
65% Box shareContext 70%
10% ConversionContext 6%
2.63 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.50 Shots allowedContext 15.00
5.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
3.40 BlocksContext 4.78
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44
60% Save rateContext 66%
47% PossessionIn forecast 47%
400 PassesContext 402
311 Accurate passesContext 318
78% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.55 Team ratingContext 6.74
10.90 FoulsContext 10.90
12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

KV Mechelen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km180 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
  • W11 OctH · St. Truiden4–31.3 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Lommel United0–00.9 xPts
  • L11 SepH · Anderlecht0–11.1 xPts
  • L5 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–41.7 xPts
  • D29 AugA · RAAL La Louvière2–21.3 xPts
OH Leuven
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel24 km59 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 5 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
  • D11 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.3 xPts
  • W19 SepH · RAAL La Louvière2–01.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Cercle Brugge1–11.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · SK Beveren0–31.1 xPts
  • L3 SepA · Gent0–10.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
KV Mechelen OH Leuven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 8 May7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 8 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km24 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways180 km59 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

KV Mechelen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs St. Truiden (H) 4–3, 11 Oct
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà 44M. Eerdhuijzen 20K. Corbanie
7T. Koudou 30Marco Decherf 6F. Hammar 23S. Michez
9M. van Brederode 14B. Raman
28B. Boersma
OH Leuven Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Union St. Gilloise (A) 1–1, 11 Oct
13K. Vroman(G)
34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 5J. Lawrence
99D. Opoku 8S. Schrijvers 6W. George 27Óscar Gil
21W. Balikwisha 18Robin Mirisola 24Ł. Łakomy

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
KV Mechelen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
OH Leuven Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

KV Mechelen · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.75
Conceded
2.75
OH Leuven · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
0.50
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentKV MechelenOH Leuven
RAAL La Louvière D 2–2 A W 2–0 H
Charleroi L 0–2 A L 1–3 A
Standard Liege D 3–3 H L 1–2 H
Gent L 0–2 A L 0–1 A
Points2 of 12 · 0.50 per game3 of 12 · 0.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 KV Mechelen wins2 draws2 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%
  • 1 Feb 2026OH Leuven2–2KV Mechelen
  • 25 Oct 2025KV Mechelen1–1OH Leuven
  • 17 Mar 2024OH Leuven1–0KV Mechelen
  • 23 Sep 2023KV Mechelen1–2OH Leuven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

KV MechelenOH LeuvenForecast
Scored per game 1.130.75
Conceded per game 2.131.75
Match goals 3.252.50
Over 1.5 75%88%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%13%
Both teams scored 38%50%
Clean sheets 13%13%
Failed to score 63%38%
Games88
KV MechelenOH LeuvenForecast
Scored per game 1.100.90
Conceded per game 2.101.40
Match goals 3.202.30
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 50%40%
Over 3.5 50%10%
Both teams scored 40%40%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 50%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

KV MechelenOH LeuvenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.633.25
Corners conceded4.258.25
Match total8.8811.5010.01
Over 8.550% 4/875% 6/8
Over 9.550% 4/863% 5/8
Over 10.538% 3/863% 5/8
Cards
Cards1.502.13
Opponent cards2.131.63
Match total3.633.763.36
Over 3.550% 4/875% 6/8
Over 4.550% 4/825% 2/8
KV MechelenOH LeuvenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.203.60
Corners conceded4.108.20
Match total8.3011.8010.01
Over 8.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 9.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 10.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.501.70
Opponent cards2.101.50
Match total3.603.203.36
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

KV Mechelen8 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
1 2 16-30
3 6 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 2 76-90
OH Leuven8 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
1 3 61-75
1 5 76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
1 3 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 7 31-45
2 2 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 2 76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
1 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 46-60
1 3 61-75
1 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
KVC Westerlo Lommel United May 1516:00 KV Mechelen OH Leuven May 1516:00 Anderlecht Antwerp May 1516:00 Zulte Waregem RAAL La Louvière May 1516:00 Gent Union St. Gilloise May 1516:00 Standard Liege Genk May 1516:00 St. Truiden Club Brugge KV May 1516:00 Charleroi Kortrijk May 1516:00 Cercle Brugge SK Beveren May 1516:00