Chelsea vs Arsenal – 30 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 30 · 16:30 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 4th · 23 pts · 12 played WLWWW

1–1Full time

Arsenal 1st · 29 pts · 12 played WWWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were slight favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 86). Chelsea had 8.2 days of rest, Arsenal 7 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days8.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Chelsea31%

Draw25%

Arsenal44%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.66

Chelsea30%

Draw27%

Arsenal43%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.48

Chelsea31%

Draw25%

Arsenal44%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.64

Chelsea25%

Draw24%

Arsenal52%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.86

Chelsea31%

Draw27%

Arsenal43%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.49

Over 2.5 58% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 195

Team strength

Chelsea

Arsenal

86 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 94

77 AttackIn forecast 86

74 DefenceIn forecast 95

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Arsenal

1.92 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.92 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.52

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.23

92% Scored inContext 92%

50% Clean sheetsContext 58%

14.42 ShotsContext 14.92

5.58 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

39% On target shareContext 34%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.42

67% Box shareContext 76%

13% ConversionContext 13%

2.40 OffsidesContext 2.13

9.33 Shots allowedContext 7.00

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.56

2.82 BlocksContext 3.33

2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.13

70% Save rateContext 81%

59% PossessionIn forecast 59%

533 PassesContext 495

461 Accurate passesContext 423

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.08 Team ratingContext 7.09

11.25 FoulsContext 10.50

12.75 Fouls sufferedContext 10.92

2.08 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.40

1.95 xGVia Att/Def 2.12

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.44

+0.35 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

100% Scored inContext 100%

60% Clean sheetsContext 70%

15.50 ShotsContext 15.30

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.40

41% On target shareContext 42%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 12.30

66% Box shareContext 80%

15% ConversionContext 16%

2.44 OffsidesContext 1.88

7.30 Shots allowedContext 6.70

2.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.00

2.44 BlocksContext 2.88

1.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.60

74% Save rateContext 80%

58% PossessionIn forecast 58%

519 PassesContext 468

452 Accurate passesContext 397

87% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.06 Team ratingContext 7.08

13.60 FoulsContext 11.44

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km583 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arsenal

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.2Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Nov	7Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	583 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 23T. Chalobah 29W. Fofana 27M. Gusto

25M. Caicedo 24R. James

7Pedro Neto 8E. Fernández 41Estêvão

20João Pedro

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 5P. Hincapié 3Cristhian Mosquera 12J. Timber

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi 10E. Eze

11Gabriel Martinelli 23Mikel Merino 7B. Saka

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Arsenal Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Arsenal-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 1.67points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.00

Arsenal · Away 2.17points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 4-1-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 9 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	Arsenal
Burnley	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 A
Tottenham	W 1–0 A	W 4–1 H
Sunderland	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 A
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 A	W 3–0 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Manchester United	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 A
Fulham	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 A
West Ham	W 5–1 A	W 2–0 H
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 H
Points	19 of 27 · 2.11 per game	22 of 27 · 2.44 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Chelsea wins2 draws7 Arsenal wins

Goals per game0.90 – 2.10 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets10% · 40%

16 Mar 2025Arsenal1–0Chelsea
10 Nov 2024Chelsea1–1Arsenal
23 Apr 2024Arsenal5–0Chelsea
21 Oct 2023Chelsea2–2Arsenal
2 May 2023Arsenal3–1Chelsea
6 Nov 2022Chelsea0–1Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.92	2.00
Conceded per game	0.92	0.50
Match goals	2.83	2.50	3.03
Over 1.5	83%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	42%	58%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	33%	61%
Clean sheets	50%	58%
Failed to score	8%	8%
Games	12	12

	Chelsea	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.80
Conceded per game	1.00	0.60
Match goals	2.80	2.40	3.03
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	58%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	61%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	6.67	6.58
Corners conceded	3.83	2.92
Match total	10.50	9.50	9.92
Over 8.5	92% 11/12	50% 6/12
Over 9.5	83% 10/12	50% 6/12
Over 10.5	50% 6/12	50% 6/12
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.00
Opponent cards	2.33	1.58
Match total	4.66	2.58	3.81
Over 3.5	67% 8/12	25% 3/12
Over 4.5	58% 7/12	8% 1/12

	Chelsea	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	5.30
Corners conceded	2.88	2.90
Match total	9.38	8.20	9.92
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.40
Opponent cards	2.40	1.80
Match total	4.70	3.20	3.81
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 195 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 3.70

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+34%league 41%

Fouls21.0league 22.1

Penalties0.28league 0.20

Home wins35%league 51%

Chelsea20 with this referee

Record10-8-2 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.1 Pens for · against6 · 3 Reds1

W4 Oct 25H · Liverpool2–10
W25 May 25A · Nottingham Forest1–02
W20 Apr 25A · Fulham2–13
W8 Dec 24A · Tottenham4–33
W14 Sep 24A · Bournemouth1–08

Arsenal20 with this referee

Record12-6-2 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.2 Pens for · against4 · 2 Reds2

W18 Oct 25A · Fulham1–00
D11 May 25A · Liverpool2–23
D9 Mar 25A · Manchester United1–11
D4 Jan 25A · Brighton1–13
W30 Nov 24A · West Ham5–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.