Chelsea vs Brentford – 17 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 22 Sat, Jan 17 · 15:00 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 8th · 31 pts · 21 played DLDDL

2–0Full time

Brentford 6th · 33 pts · 21 played WWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 76). Absences weigh more on Chelsea. Chelsea had 9.8 days of rest, Brentford 9.8 and had to travel 13 km.

Away travel13 kmRest days9.8 · 9.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Chelsea50%

Draw24%

Brentford26%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.22

Chelsea49%

Draw26%

Brentford25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.10

Chelsea51%

Draw24%

Brentford25%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.18

Chelsea42%

Draw26%

Brentford32%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.36

Chelsea48%

Draw26%

Brentford26%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.13

Over 2.5 58% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeJohn Brooks

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 95

Team strength

Chelsea

Brentford

82 L90 StrengthIn forecast 76

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

77 AttackIn forecast 73

74 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Brentford

1.62 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67

1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

90% Scored inContext 76%

38% Clean sheetsContext 24%

13.90 ShotsContext 10.29

4.81 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.24

35% On target shareContext 41%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.06

68% Box shareContext 72%

12% ConversionContext 16%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.06

10.95 Shots allowedContext 12.62

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.19

3.11 BlocksContext 4.48

2.68 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.05

70% Save rateContext 70%

58% PossessionIn forecast 46%

516 PassesContext 382

444 Accurate passesContext 302

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.48 FoulsContext 11.14

12.29 Fouls sufferedContext 9.15

2.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.95

0.19 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

2.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.96

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

-0.44 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

90% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.70 ShotsContext 10.90

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

34% On target shareContext 43%

10.56 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

68% Box shareContext 72%

11% ConversionContext 17%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.33

13.40 Shots allowedContext 12.30

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

4.22 BlocksContext 4.60

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

67% Save rateContext 77%

58% PossessionIn forecast 53%

540 PassesContext 447

468 Accurate passesContext 364

87% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.10

11.40 FoulsContext 9.00

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.10

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea

Rest9.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest9.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel13 km560 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.8Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan	9.8Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	524 km	560 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	0 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	8	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 4T. Adarabioyo 23T. Chalobah 24R. James

8E. Fernández 25M. Caicedo

49A. Garnacho 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto

20João Pedro

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

3R. Henry 22N. Collins 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

27V. Janelt 18Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 8M. Jensen

9Thiago

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea-0.8 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Brentford+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 1.50points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-3
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.10

Brentford · Away 0.90points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-7
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	Brentford
Fulham	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	L 1–3 A
Manchester City	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 H
Bournemouth	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A	W 4–1 H
Aston Villa	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 H
Newcastle	D 2–2 A	W 3–1 H
Everton	W 2–0 H	W 4–2 A
Leeds	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 H
Arsenal	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Burnley	W 2–0 A	W 3–1 H
Wolves	W 3–0 H	W 2–0 A
Tottenham	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Sunderland	L 1–2 H	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 A	L 1–3 A
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	W 3–2 H
Brighton	L 1–3 H	L 1–2 A
Manchester United	L 1–2 A	W 3–1 H
West Ham	W 5–1 A	W 2–0 A
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 H	L 0–2 A
Points	30 of 60 · 1.50 per game	32 of 60 · 1.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Chelsea wins4 draws3 Brentford wins

Goals per game0.89 – 1.44 Over 2.544% Both scored44% Clean sheets33% · 44%

13 Sep 2025Brentford2–2Chelsea
6 Apr 2025Brentford0–0Chelsea
15 Dec 2024Chelsea2–1Brentford
2 Mar 2024Brentford2–2Chelsea
28 Oct 2023Chelsea0–2Brentford
26 Apr 2023Chelsea0–2Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.62	1.67
Conceded per game	1.14	1.33
Match goals	2.76	3.00	3.00
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	62%	57%	58%
Over 3.5	29%	43%
Both teams scored	62%	57%	59%
Clean sheets	38%	24%
Failed to score	10%	24%
Games	21	21

	Chelsea	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.80
Conceded per game	1.30	1.10
Match goals	2.60	2.90	3.00
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	5.15
Corners conceded	4.30	4.90
Match total	10.50	10.05	9.87
Over 8.5	85% 17/20	70% 14/20
Over 9.5	80% 16/20	60% 12/20
Over 10.5	50% 10/20	55% 11/20
Cards
Cards	2.52	1.95
Opponent cards	2.29	1.81
Match total	4.81	3.76	3.85
Over 3.5	62% 13/21	52% 11/21
Over 4.5	57% 12/21	43% 9/21

	Chelsea	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	5.11
Corners conceded	4.67	5.11
Match total	10.45	10.22	9.87
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.60
Opponent cards	1.50	1.20
Match total	4.00	2.80	3.85
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · John Brooks 95 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.37league 3.71

Red cards0.13league 0.11

Cards 5+48%league 38%

Fouls22.7league 21.3

Penalties0.22league 0.20

Home wins54%league 45%

Chelsea7 with this referee

Record2-0-5 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds1

L11 May 25A · Newcastle0–23
L25 Jan 25A · Manchester City1–32
L30 Dec 24A · Ipswich0–24
L20 Oct 24A · Liverpool1–23
W11 Mar 24H · Newcastle3–23

Brentford6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

D14 Dec 25H · Leeds1–10
L21 Sep 24A · Tottenham1–31
W28 May 23H · Manchester City1–04
L5 Apr 23A · Manchester United0–12
L8 Oct 22A · Newcastle1–51

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.