Chelsea vs Manchester United – 18 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 33 Sat, Apr 18 · 20:00 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 6th · 48 pts · 32 played LWLLL

0–1Full time

Manchester United 3rd · 55 pts · 32 played WLWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Manchester United. Chelsea had 6.1 days of rest, Manchester United 5 and had to travel 262 km.

Away travel262 kmRest days6.1 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 1

Chelsea45%

Draw23%

Manchester United32%

Expected goals 1.88 – 1.57

Chelsea43%

Draw27%

Manchester United30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Chelsea44%

Draw24%

Manchester United32%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.51

Chelsea37%

Draw24%

Manchester United40%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.76

Chelsea44%

Draw25%

Manchester United32%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.43

Over 2.5 67% Both score 68% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 200

Team strength

Chelsea

Manchester United

78 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

77 AttackIn forecast 72

74 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Manchester United

1.66 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78

1.28 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.41

1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

84% Scored inContext 91%

28% Clean sheetsContext 16%

13.69 ShotsContext 16.00

4.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.84

34% On target shareContext 37%

9.39 Shots in the boxContext 10.68

68% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.18 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.00 Shots allowedContext 11.13

4.32 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.72

3.03 BlocksContext 3.53

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.52

71% Save rateContext 63%

58% PossessionIn forecast 53%

544 PassesContext 472

475 Accurate passesContext 391

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.96

10.94 FoulsContext 10.00

11.78 Fouls sufferedContext 11.06

2.41 Yellow cardsContext 1.56

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.62 Goals minus xGContext +0.51

60% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.30 ShotsContext 15.00

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

32% On target shareContext 41%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

67% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.67

10.00 Shots allowedContext 11.50

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

2.44 BlocksContext 3.90

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

59% Save rateContext 67%

57% PossessionIn forecast 54%

569 PassesContext 503

508 Accurate passesContext 424

89% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.99

9.60 FoulsContext 9.80

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester United

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel262 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Premier League 2025-2026, 12 Apr	5Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	3	9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 21J. Hato 29W. Fofana 27M. Gusto

8E. Fernández 25M. Caicedo

7Pedro Neto 10C. Palmer 41Estêvão

9L. Delap

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester United Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 26A. Heaven 3N. Mazraoui 2Diogo Dalot

37K. Mainoo 18Casemiro

10Matheus Cunha 8Bruno Fernandes 19B. Mbeumo

30B. Šeško

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester United Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea+0.5 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Manchester United+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 1.44points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 6-5-5
Scored: 1.44
Conceded: 1.25

Manchester United · Away 1.38points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 5-7-4
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 1.63

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	Manchester United
Manchester City	L 0–3 HD 1–1 A	W 2–0 HL 0–3 A
Everton	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H	W 1–0 AL 0–1 H
Newcastle	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Aston Villa	W 4–1 AL 1–2 H	W 3–1 HL 1–2 A
Arsenal	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	W 3–2 AL 0–1 H
Burnley	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A	D 2–2 AW 3–2 H
Leeds	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Wolves	W 3–1 AW 3–0 H	D 1–1 HW 4–1 A
West Ham	W 3–2 HW 5–1 A	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 3–1 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Brentford	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	L 1–3 A
Fulham	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	W 3–2 HD 1–1 A
Bournemouth	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A	D 2–2 AD 4–4 H
Tottenham	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Sunderland	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 H
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 A	D 2–2 A
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 A
Brighton	L 1–3 H	W 4–2 H
Points	48 of 93 · 1.55 per game	52 of 93 · 1.68 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

2 Chelsea wins5 draws3 Manchester United wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.50 Over 2.540% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 10%

20 Sep 2025Manchester United2–1Chelsea
16 May 2025Chelsea1–0Manchester United
3 Nov 2024Manchester United1–1Chelsea
4 Apr 2024Chelsea4–3Manchester United
6 Dec 2023Manchester United2–1Chelsea
25 May 2023Manchester United4–1Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.66	1.78
Conceded per game	1.28	1.41
Match goals	2.94	3.19	3.44
Over 1.5	88%	88%
Over 2.5	66%	63%	67%
Over 3.5	34%	38%
Both teams scored	63%	75%	68%
Clean sheets	28%	16%
Failed to score	16%	9%
Games	32	32

	Chelsea	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.90
Conceded per game	1.70	1.30
Match goals	3.40	3.20	3.44
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	67%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	80%	68%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	6.35	4.71
Corners conceded	4.35	5.03
Match total	10.70	9.74	10.06
Over 8.5	84% 26/31	58% 18/31
Over 9.5	74% 23/31	55% 17/31
Over 10.5	55% 17/31	35% 11/31
Cards
Cards	2.63	1.66
Opponent cards	2.22	2.28
Match total	4.85	3.94	3.90
Over 3.5	69% 22/32	59% 19/32
Over 4.5	59% 19/32	47% 15/32

	Chelsea	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	6.80	5.00
Corners conceded	3.70	5.56
Match total	10.50	10.56	10.06
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.20
Opponent cards	1.50	2.20
Match total	3.80	4.40	3.90
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.76

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+35%league 39%

Fouls22.3league 21.5

Penalties0.22league 0.22

Home wins42%league 41%

Chelsea19 with this referee

Record6-6-7 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 0

D4 Jan 26A · Manchester City1–13
D6 Dec 25A · Bournemouth0–02
W22 Aug 25A · West Ham5–11
D6 Apr 25A · Brentford0–03
L22 Feb 25A · Aston Villa1–23

Manchester United16 with this referee

Record5-4-7 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

W7 Feb 26H · Tottenham2–01
L21 Dec 25A · Aston Villa1–22
W19 Oct 25A · Liverpool2–12
L13 Apr 25A · Newcastle1–42
D5 Jan 25A · Liverpool2–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.