Chelsea vs Newcastle – 14 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 30 Sat, Mar 14 · 17:30 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 5th · 48 pts · 29 played WDDLW

0–1Full time

Newcastle 13th · 39 pts · 29 played LWLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 79). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Chelsea. Chelsea had 9.9 days of rest, Newcastle 9.9 and had to travel 398 km.

Away travel398 kmRest days9.9 · 9.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

Chelsea59%

Draw20%

Newcastle21%

Expected goals 2.35 – 1.37

Chelsea50%

Draw26%

Newcastle24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Chelsea59%

Draw20%

Newcastle21%

Expected goals 2.34 – 1.37

Chelsea50%

Draw22%

Newcastle28%

Expected goals 2.10 – 1.53

Chelsea57%

Draw22%

Newcastle21%

Expected goals 2.13 – 1.25

Over 2.5 72% Both score 68% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereePaul Tierney

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 118

Team strength

Chelsea

Newcastle

85 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

77 AttackIn forecast 61

74 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Newcastle

1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.45

1.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.48

1.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

93% Scored inContext 76%

31% Clean sheetsContext 24%

13.52 ShotsContext 13.31

4.76 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.72

35% On target shareContext 36%

9.46 Shots in the boxContext 8.62

69% Box shareContext 63%

14% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.21

10.93 Shots allowedContext 11.41

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.21

3.07 BlocksContext 3.58

2.96 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

72% Save rateContext 68%

59% PossessionIn forecast 53%

539 PassesContext 453

469 Accurate passesContext 379

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.91

11.17 FoulsContext 10.25

11.93 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.41 Yellow cardsContext 1.69

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

2.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.96

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

100% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.50 ShotsContext 15.30

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

38% On target shareContext 39%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

70% Box shareContext 67%

17% ConversionContext 14%

1.75 OffsidesContext 3.00

9.20 Shots allowedContext 13.30

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

2.30 BlocksContext 3.60

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

63% Save rateContext 64%

61% PossessionIn forecast 50%

611 PassesContext 413

549 Accurate passesContext 343

90% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.81

10.30 FoulsContext 11.60

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea

Rest9.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km325 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest9.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel398 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.9Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Mar	9.9Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	325 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 23T. Chalobah 29W. Fofana 27M. Gusto

25M. Caicedo 24R. James

49A. Garnacho 8E. Fernández 10C. Palmer

20João Pedro

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

32A. Ramsdale(G)

3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 21V. Livramento

41J. Ramsey 28J. Willock

11H. Barnes 27N. Woltemade 23J. Murphy

10A. Gordon

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Newcastle-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 1.64points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 6-5-3
Scored: 1.64
Conceded: 1.14

Newcastle · Away 0.93points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-7
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.36

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	Newcastle
Aston Villa	W 4–1 AL 1–2 H	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Arsenal	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Burnley	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H
Leeds	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A
Wolves	W 3–1 AW 3–0 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
West Ham	W 3–2 HW 5–1 A	L 1–3 A
Crystal Palace	W 3–1 AD 0–0 H	W 2–0 H
Brentford	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	L 2–3 HL 1–3 A
Fulham	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	W 2–1 H
Manchester City	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H
Bournemouth	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A	D 0–0 A
Everton	W 2–0 H	L 2–3 HW 4–1 A
Tottenham	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H
Sunderland	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 A	W 2–0 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	L 1–4 AL 2–3 H
Brighton	L 1–3 H	L 1–2 A
Manchester United	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Points	47 of 84 · 1.68 per game	38 of 84 · 1.36 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

5 Chelsea wins2 draws3 Newcastle wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.30 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets30% · 20%

20 Dec 2025Newcastle2–2Chelsea
11 May 2025Newcastle2–0Chelsea
27 Oct 2024Chelsea2–1Newcastle
11 Mar 2024Chelsea3–2Newcastle
25 Nov 2023Newcastle4–1Chelsea
28 May 2023Chelsea1–1Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.83	1.45
Conceded per game	1.17	1.48
Match goals	3.00	2.93	3.72
Over 1.5	90%	76%
Over 2.5	66%	66%	72%
Over 3.5	38%	38%
Both teams scored	69%	66%	68%
Clean sheets	31%	24%
Failed to score	7%	24%
Games	29	29

	Chelsea	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.60
Conceded per game	1.30	1.90
Match goals	3.40	3.50	3.72
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	72%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	90%	70%	68%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	6.29	6.69
Corners conceded	4.25	4.93
Match total	10.54	11.62	9.99
Over 8.5	82% 23/28	79% 23/29
Over 9.5	75% 21/28	66% 19/29
Over 10.5	54% 15/28	55% 16/29
Cards
Cards	2.66	1.79
Opponent cards	2.34	2.38
Match total	5.00	4.17	3.92
Over 3.5	69% 20/29	59% 17/29
Over 4.5	66% 19/29	38% 11/29

	Chelsea	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	6.70	7.00
Corners conceded	3.20	4.60
Match total	9.90	11.60	9.99
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.20
Opponent cards	2.40	1.60
Match total	4.80	3.80	3.92
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Paul Tierney 118 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.86league 3.77

Red cards0.11league 0.12

Cards 5+42%league 39%

Fouls22.1league 21.6

Penalties0.18league 0.22

Home wins38%league 42%

Chelsea13 with this referee

Record8-2-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds2

W15 Apr 24H · Everton6–01
L31 Jan 24A · Liverpool1–44
W30 Dec 23A · Luton3–22
D13 May 23H · Nottingham Forest2–23
L5 Jan 23H · Manchester City0–12

Newcastle10 with this referee

Record3-4-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2 Pens for · against2 · 3

L24 Feb 24A · Arsenal1–40
W17 Mar 23A · Nottingham Forest2–11
W29 Oct 22H · Aston Villa4–01
D15 Jan 22H · Watford1–13
W4 Dec 21H · Burnley1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.