Chelsea
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Chelsea were clear favourites.
Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 40). Chelsea usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Chelsea had 7.1 days of rest, Sunderland 7 and had to travel 387 km.
Away travel387 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Chelsea76%
Draw15%
Sunderland9%
Chelsea74%
Draw17%
Sunderland9%
Chelsea76%
Draw15%
Sunderland9%
Chelsea69%
Draw18%
Sunderland12%
Chelsea74%
Draw17%
Sunderland9%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndy Madley
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 118
Team strength
Chelsea
Sunderland
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
77
AttackIn forecast
62
74
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ChelseaSunderland
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
88%
Scored inContext
63%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.38
ShotsContext
9.75
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
36%
On target shareContext
27%
8.63
Shots in the boxContext
7.13
66%
Box shareContext
73%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.00
Shots allowedContext
13.13
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
2.88
BlocksContext
3.88
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.86
70%
Save rateContext
87%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
525
PassesContext
381
455
Accurate passesContext
304
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.00
FoulsContext
8.63
12.38
Fouls sufferedContext
10.25
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.13
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
100%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.70
ShotsContext
9.70
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
40%
On target shareContext
25%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
64%
Box shareContext
70%
18%
ConversionContext
9%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.40
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.60
BlocksContext
3.80
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
67%
Save rateContext
83%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
514
PassesContext
404
449
Accurate passesContext
329
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.20
FoulsContext
9.20
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Chelsea
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sunderland
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel387 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Chelsea |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 350 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 9.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
1Robert Sánchez(G)
3Marc Cucurella
34J. Acheampong
23T. Chalobah
24R. James
8E. Fernández
25M. Caicedo
49A. Garnacho
20João Pedro
7Pedro Neto
38Marc Guiu
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
6L. Geertruida
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
32T. Hume
28E. Le Fée
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
25B. Traoré
18W. Isidor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Chelsea
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Chelsea-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Sunderland+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Chelsea · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sunderland · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Chelsea | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Brentford | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| West Ham | W 5–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 8 of 15 · 1.60 per game | 10 of 15 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Chelsea | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 1.88 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 25% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 25% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Chelsea | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 1.88 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 25% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 25% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Chelsea | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.88 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.51 | 8.13 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.63 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 5.01 | 3.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Chelsea | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 8.60 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.20 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andy Madley 118 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 3.64
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+30%league 41%
Fouls23.0league 21.9
Penalties0.14league 0.20
Home wins48%league 48%
Chelsea12 with this referee
Record6-2-4
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W23 Nov 24A · Leicester2–13
- W5 May 24H · West Ham5–01
- W17 Mar 24H · Leicester4–20
- D17 Feb 24A · Manchester City1–13
- W16 Dec 23H · Sheffield Utd2–01
Sunderland1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W11 Nov 22A · Birmingham2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Chelsea8 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Sunderland8 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 23 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
6
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
6
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
