Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa – 7 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 21 Wed, Jan 7 · 19:30 Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace 14th · 27 pts · 20 played LLLDL

0–0Full time

Aston Villa 3rd · 42 pts · 20 played WWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Aston Villa were slight favourites.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 69). Crystal Palace had 3.2 days of rest, Aston Villa 4.3 and had to travel 163 km.

Away travel163 kmRest days3.2 · 4.3Matches / 14d3 · 3

Crystal Palace28%

Draw26%

Aston Villa46%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.63

Crystal Palace28%

Draw27%

Aston Villa45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.53

Crystal Palace28%

Draw26%

Aston Villa46%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.63

Crystal Palace22%

Draw24%

Aston Villa54%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.83

Crystal Palace28%

Draw27%

Aston Villa45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.53

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 125

Team strength

Crystal Palace

Aston Villa

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 87

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

64 AttackIn forecast 83

54 DefenceIn forecast 78

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal Palace

Aston Villa

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.65

1.15 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.21

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.44

65% Scored inContext 75%

35% Clean sheetsContext 25%

11.75 ShotsContext 11.50

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.35

32% On target shareContext 38%

8.68 Shots in the boxContext 7.68

71% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 14%

2.28 OffsidesContext 1.77

11.45 Shots allowedContext 13.10

4.21 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.18 BlocksContext 4.10

2.94 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.85

67% Save rateContext 68%

43% PossessionIn forecast 53%

375 PassesContext 438

289 Accurate passesContext 372

77% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.88

9.90 FoulsContext 9.85

9.45 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

-0.56 Goals minus xGContext +0.64

70% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.80 ShotsContext 12.30

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

29% On target shareContext 46%

10.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

73% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 18%

2.90 OffsidesContext 1.33

10.80 Shots allowedContext 12.60

5.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.43 BlocksContext 3.50

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

61% Save rateContext 68%

47% PossessionIn forecast 53%

406 PassesContext 462

319 Accurate passesContext 399

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.86

9.90 FoulsContext 10.00

7.90 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km796 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Aston Villa

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel163 km651 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Crystal Palace	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Jan	4.3Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	163 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	796 km	651 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	1 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	9.8	10.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 23J. Canvot

3T. Mitchell 19W. Hughes 20A. Wharton 55J. Devenny

10Yeremy Pino 11B. Johnson

14J. Mateta

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23E. Martínez(G)

12L. Digne 3V. Lindelöf 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

8Y. Tielemans 44B. Kamara

27M. Rogers 7J. McGinn 19J. Sancho

11O. Watkins

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Crystal Palace Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Crystal Palace+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Aston Villa+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.10points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 2-5-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.20

Aston Villa · Away 1.70points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 5-2-3
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Crystal Palace	Aston Villa
Newcastle	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 H
Fulham	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	W 3–1 H
Tottenham	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 A
Leeds	L 1–4 A	W 2–1 A
Manchester City	L 0–3 H	W 1–0 H
Burnley	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 H
Manchester United	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 H
Wolves	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 H
Brighton	D 0–0 H	W 4–3 A
Brentford	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 A
Arsenal	L 0–1 A	L 1–4 AW 2–1 H
Bournemouth	D 3–3 H	W 4–0 H
Everton	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 A
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
West Ham	W 2–1 A	W 3–2 A
Sunderland	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Nottingham Forest	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 H
Chelsea	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 A
Points	24 of 57 · 1.26 per game	42 of 57 · 2.21 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

5 Crystal Palace wins2 draws3 Aston Villa wins

Goals per game2.30 – 1.30 Over 2.580% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 10%

31 Aug 2025Aston Villa0–3Crystal Palace
25 Feb 2025Crystal Palace4–1Aston Villa
23 Nov 2024Aston Villa2–2Crystal Palace
19 May 2024Crystal Palace5–0Aston Villa
16 Sep 2023Aston Villa3–1Crystal Palace
4 Mar 2023Aston Villa1–0Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Crystal Palace	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.65
Conceded per game	1.15	1.20
Match goals	2.25	2.85	2.87
Over 1.5	70%	75%
Over 2.5	45%	65%	55%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	45%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	35%	25%
Failed to score	35%	25%
Games	20	20

	Crystal Palace	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	2.20
Conceded per game	1.40	1.50
Match goals	2.20	3.70	2.87
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	90%	55%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	90%	58%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Crystal Palace	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	3.95	5.00
Corners conceded	5.15	4.80
Match total	9.10	9.80	9.89
Over 8.5	50% 10/20	70% 14/20
Over 9.5	45% 9/20	65% 13/20
Over 10.5	40% 8/20	45% 9/20
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.65
Opponent cards	2.00	2.55
Match total	3.80	4.20	3.80
Over 3.5	70% 14/20	65% 13/20
Over 4.5	55% 11/20	40% 8/20

	Crystal Palace	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	4.67
Corners conceded	3.90	3.89
Match total	8.80	8.56	9.89
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.80
Opponent cards	1.40	2.30
Match total	3.10	4.10	3.80
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 125 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.34league 3.67

Red cards0.11league 0.10

Cards 5+29%league 37%

Fouls23.0league 21.4

Penalties0.14league 0.20

Home wins47%league 45%

Crystal Palace13 with this referee

Record4-3-6 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds3

D5 May 25H · Nottingham Forest1–12
D2 Apr 25A · Southampton1–11
W15 Jan 25A · Leicester2–00
L28 Sep 24A · Everton1–20
L9 Dec 23H · Liverpool1–27

Aston Villa13 with this referee

Record5-2-6 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W3 Dec 25A · Brighton4–32
W28 Sep 25H · Fulham3–11
L1 Feb 25A · Wolves0–23
W30 Sep 23H · Brighton6–14
L12 Aug 23A · Newcastle1–54

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.