Crystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Crystal Palace were clear favourites.
Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace had 3.2 days of rest, Burnley 4.2 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days3.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Crystal Palace63%
Draw21%
Burnley15%
Crystal Palace55%
Draw24%
Burnley21%
Crystal Palace63%
Draw21%
Burnley16%
Crystal Palace56%
Draw24%
Burnley20%
Crystal Palace63%
Draw22%
Burnley15%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeFarai Hallam
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.07
- Matches 29
Team strength
Crystal Palace
Burnley
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
64
AttackIn forecast
27
54
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBurnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Crystal PalaceBurnley
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.16
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.96
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.97
-0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
68%
Scored inContext
64%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
12%
11.44
ShotsContext
9.04
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.48
34%
On target shareContext
32%
8.58
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
73%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.27
OffsidesContext
1.95
11.32
Shots allowedContext
16.52
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.96
3.05
BlocksContext
4.86
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
68%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
382
PassesContext
382
295
Accurate passesContext
300
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.68
10.12
FoulsContext
10.00
9.04
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.72
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
-0.64
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.90
ShotsContext
10.20
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
30%
On target shareContext
26%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
75%
Box shareContext
63%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.89
12.40
Shots allowedContext
17.80
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.80
3.10
BlocksContext
5.25
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.11
63%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
421
PassesContext
424
329
Accurate passesContext
343
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.40
FoulsContext
10.20
7.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Crystal Palace
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km494 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Burnley
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel292 km269 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Crystal Palace |
Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 494 km | 269 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10.8 | 9.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
26Chris Richards
5M. Lacroix
8J. Lerma
3T. Mitchell
18Daichi Kamada
20A. Wharton
2D. Muñoz
29E. Guessand
7I. Sarr
22J. Strand Larsen
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
5M. Estève
4J. Worrall
29J. Laurent
12B. Humphreys
28H. Mejbri
8L. Ugochukwu
2K. Walker
11J. Anthony
10M. Edwards
19Z. Flemming
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Crystal Palace
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Burnley
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Crystal Palace+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Burnley-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Crystal Palace · Home
1.00points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-6-4
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.25
Burnley · Away
0.42points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-9
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Crystal Palace | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Chelsea | L 1–3 HD 0–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Sunderland | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Aston Villa | D 0–0 HW 3–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Newcastle | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Fulham | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Tottenham | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Leeds | L 1–4 A | W 2–0 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 H | L 1–5 A |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Wolves | W 2–0 A | W 3–2 A |
| Brentford | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Bournemouth | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Everton | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| West Ham | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Points | 29 of 72 · 1.21 per game | 15 of 72 · 0.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Crystal Palace wins2 draws2 Burnley wins
Goals per game1.43 – 1.14
Over 2.543%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets43% · 29%
- 3 Dec 2025Burnley0–1Crystal Palace
- 24 Feb 2024Crystal Palace3–0Burnley
- 4 Nov 2023Burnley0–2Crystal Palace
- 26 Feb 2022Crystal Palace1–1Burnley
- 20 Nov 2021Burnley3–3Crystal Palace
- 13 Feb 2021Crystal Palace0–3Burnley
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Crystal Palace | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.16 | 1.96 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.96 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 52% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 56% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 12% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 36% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Crystal Palace | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.80 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Crystal Palace | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.04 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.96 | 5.64 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.08 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 12/25 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 10/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 9/25 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.92 | 1.12 | |
| Match total | 3.96 | 2.92 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 18/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 14/25 | 16% 4/25 | |
| Crystal Palace | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.40 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 0.80 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.00 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Farai Hallam 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 3.74
Red cards0.03league 0.12
Cards 5+38%league 38%
Fouls23.7league 21.3
Penalties0.07league 0.22
Home wins34%league 43%
Crystal PalaceNo previous matches with this referee.
BurnleyNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Crystal Palace25 games · scored 26 · conceded 29
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
7
9
31-45
1
5
46-60
7
5
61-75
6
8
76-90
Burnley25 games · scored 25 · conceded 49
2
9
0-15
5
4
16-30
3
12
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
6
61-75
9
12
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
