Crystal Palace vs Chelsea – 25 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 23 Sun, Jan 25 · 14:00 Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace 15th · 28 pts · 22 played LDLDL

1–3Full time

Chelsea 6th · 34 pts · 22 played LDDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 66). Crystal Palace had 8 days of rest, Chelsea 8 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Crystal Palace31%

Draw25%

Chelsea44%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.65

Crystal Palace31%

Draw27%

Chelsea42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.46

Crystal Palace31%

Draw26%

Chelsea44%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.61

Crystal Palace24%

Draw24%

Chelsea52%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.85

Crystal Palace31%

Draw26%

Chelsea43%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.51

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeDarren England

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 112

Team strength

Crystal Palace

Chelsea

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 83

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

64 AttackIn forecast 77

54 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal Palace

Chelsea

1.05 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.64

1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.09

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

64% Scored inContext 91%

36% Clean sheetsContext 41%

11.45 ShotsContext 13.55

3.77 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.68

33% On target shareContext 35%

8.52 Shots in the boxContext 9.33

72% Box shareContext 68%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.07

11.68 Shots allowedContext 11.14

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.86

3.16 BlocksContext 3.20

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.85

70% Save rateContext 73%

43% PossessionIn forecast 57%

373 PassesContext 512

288 Accurate passesContext 441

77% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.92 Team ratingContext 7.03

10.05 FoulsContext 11.27

9.09 Fouls sufferedContext 12.18

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.32

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.18

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 2.18

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.64 Goals minus xGContext -0.38

60% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.90 ShotsContext 14.90

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

29% On target shareContext 36%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.33

72% Box shareContext 67%

7% ConversionContext 12%

3.20 OffsidesContext 1.60

11.20 Shots allowedContext 12.30

5.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.13 BlocksContext 4.56

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

64% Save rateContext 74%

50% PossessionIn forecast 57%

418 PassesContext 536

332 Accurate passesContext 469

79% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.76 Team ratingContext 7.02

10.50 FoulsContext 10.10

7.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km774 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Crystal Palace	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan	8Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	774 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 5	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

26Chris Richards 5M. Lacroix 23J. Canvot

3T. Mitchell 8J. Lerma 20A. Wharton 2D. Muñoz

11B. Johnson 7I. Sarr

14J. Mateta

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 5B. Badiashile 23T. Chalobah 24R. James

25M. Caicedo 17Andrey Santos

7Pedro Neto 8E. Fernández 41Estêvão

20João Pedro

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Crystal Palace Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Crystal Palace+0.0 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Chelsea+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.09points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 2-6-3
Scored: 0.91
Conceded: 1.09

Chelsea · Away 1.45points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 4-4-3
Scored: 1.73
Conceded: 1.18

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Crystal Palace	Chelsea
Sunderland	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H	L 1–2 H
Aston Villa	D 0–0 HW 3–0 A	L 1–2 H
Newcastle	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 A
Fulham	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
Tottenham	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 A
Leeds	L 1–4 A	L 1–3 A
Manchester City	L 0–3 H	D 1–1 A
Burnley	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 A
Manchester United	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 A
Wolves	W 2–0 A	W 3–0 H
Brighton	D 0–0 H	L 1–3 H
Brentford	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Arsenal	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Bournemouth	D 3–3 H	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Everton	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 H
West Ham	W 2–1 A	W 5–1 A
Nottingham Forest	D 1–1 H	W 3–0 A
Points	27 of 63 · 1.29 per game	33 of 63 · 1.57 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

0 Crystal Palace wins3 draws7 Chelsea wins

Goals per game0.60 – 1.80 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 40%

17 Aug 2025Chelsea0–0Crystal Palace
4 Jan 2025Crystal Palace1–1Chelsea
1 Sep 2024Chelsea1–1Crystal Palace
12 Feb 2024Crystal Palace1–3Chelsea
27 Dec 2023Chelsea2–1Crystal Palace
15 Jan 2023Chelsea1–0Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Crystal Palace	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.05	1.64
Conceded per game	1.14	1.09
Match goals	2.18	2.73	2.99
Over 1.5	68%	86%
Over 2.5	45%	59%	57%
Over 3.5	9%	27%
Both teams scored	45%	59%	60%
Clean sheets	36%	41%
Failed to score	36%	9%
Games	22	22

	Crystal Palace	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.30
Conceded per game	1.60	1.30
Match goals	2.30	2.60	2.99
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Crystal Palace	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	3.91	6.05
Corners conceded	5.05	4.52
Match total	8.96	10.57	9.94
Over 8.5	45% 10/22	86% 18/21
Over 9.5	41% 9/22	81% 17/21
Over 10.5	36% 8/22	52% 11/21
Cards
Cards	1.86	2.55
Opponent cards	1.95	2.27
Match total	3.81	4.82	3.86
Over 3.5	68% 15/22	64% 14/22
Over 4.5	55% 12/22	59% 13/22

	Crystal Palace	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	6.70
Corners conceded	3.60	4.90
Match total	8.40	11.60	9.94
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.70
Opponent cards	1.70	1.90
Match total	3.80	4.60	3.86
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Darren England 112 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.18league 3.73

Red cards0.11league 0.10

Cards 5+41%league 38%

Fouls22.3league 21.3

Penalties0.28league 0.20

Home wins45%league 46%

Crystal Palace13 with this referee

Record1-6-6 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 3

L14 Dec 25H · Manchester City0–32
D17 Aug 25A · Chelsea0–03
D25 May 25A · Liverpool1–10
L16 Apr 25A · Newcastle0–53
D30 Nov 24H · Newcastle1–13

Chelsea5 with this referee

Record1-3-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4 Pens for · against2 · 0

L3 Dec 25A · Leeds1–31
D17 Aug 25H · Crystal Palace0–02
W25 Aug 24A · Wolves6–23
D30 Mar 24H · Burnley2–22
D18 Mar 23H · Everton2–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.