Crystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Crystal Palace
5th · 26 pts · 15 played
DWLWW
0–3Full time
Manchester City
2nd · 31 pts · 15 played
WLWWW
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 78). Absences weigh more on Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace had 6.9 days of rest, Manchester City 8 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days6.9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Crystal Palace30%
Draw26%
Manchester City45%
Crystal Palace31%
Draw27%
Manchester City42%
Crystal Palace31%
Draw26%
Manchester City44%
Crystal Palace23%
Draw24%
Manchester City53%
Crystal Palace30%
Draw27%
Manchester City43%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 108
Team strength
Crystal PalaceManchester City
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
90
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
64
AttackIn forecast
92
54
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Crystal PalaceManchester City
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.07
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
73%
Scored inContext
87%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.53
ShotsContext
14.40
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
37%
On target shareContext
37%
8.64
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
71%
Box shareContext
74%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
2.08
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.00
Shots allowedContext
9.27
3.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.27
3.08
BlocksContext
2.73
2.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
74%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
366
PassesContext
547
283
Accurate passesContext
481
77%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.02
Team ratingContext
7.09
10.20
FoulsContext
9.60
10.53
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
2.11
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
80%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.90
ShotsContext
15.60
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
33%
On target shareContext
42%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
12.20
74%
Box shareContext
78%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.10
OffsidesContext
1.86
9.30
Shots allowedContext
9.60
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
2.63
BlocksContext
3.30
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
76%
Save rateContext
59%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
372
PassesContext
511
286
Accurate passesContext
448
77%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.97
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.50
FoulsContext
11.00
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Crystal Palace
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km583 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester City
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel262 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Crystal Palace |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 583 km | 524 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
6A. Guéhi
5M. Lacroix
26Chris Richards
3T. Mitchell
18Daichi Kamada
20A. Wharton
17N. Clyne
10Yeremy Pino
7I. Sarr
14J. Mateta
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
24J. Gvardiol
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
4T. Reijnders
14Nico González
20Bernardo Silva
47P. Foden
10M. Cherki
9E. Haaland
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Crystal Palace
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Crystal Palace-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Manchester City+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Crystal Palace · Home
1.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-1
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.00
Manchester City · Away
1.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-3
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 1.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Crystal Palace | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | W 2–1 A | W 5–4 A |
| Burnley | W 1–0 A | W 5–1 H |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Wolves | W 2–0 A | W 4–0 A |
| Brighton | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Brentford | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 3–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| Everton | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Sunderland | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Aston Villa | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 21 of 36 · 1.75 per game | 28 of 36 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Crystal Palace wins3 draws6 Manchester City wins
Goals per game1.20 – 2.40
Over 2.560%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 12 Apr 2025Manchester City5–2Crystal Palace
- 7 Dec 2024Crystal Palace2–2Manchester City
- 6 Apr 2024Crystal Palace2–4Manchester City
- 16 Dec 2023Manchester City2–2Crystal Palace
- 11 Mar 2023Crystal Palace0–1Manchester City
- 27 Aug 2022Manchester City4–2Crystal Palace
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Crystal Palace | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.07 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 3.40 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 7% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 47% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 13% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Crystal Palace | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.70 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Crystal Palace | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.27 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.07 | 10.20 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 7/15 | 80% 12/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 6/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.07 | 1.73 | |
| Match total | 3.74 | 3.53 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 10/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 9/15 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Crystal Palace | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 6.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 10.70 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.90 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 108 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.18league 3.64
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+41%league 39%
Fouls22.2league 22.0
Penalties0.28league 0.20
Home wins44%league 49%
Crystal Palace12 with this referee
Record1-6-5
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D17 Aug 25A · Chelsea0–03
- D25 May 25A · Liverpool1–10
- L16 Apr 25A · Newcastle0–53
- D30 Nov 24H · Newcastle1–13
- L16 Sep 23A · Aston Villa1–33
Manchester City10 with this referee
Record9-0-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.4
Pens for · against3 · 2
Reds1
- W5 Oct 25A · Brentford1–02
- L31 Aug 25A · Brighton1–22
- W2 Apr 25H · Leicester2–01
- W3 Apr 24H · Aston Villa4–11
- W20 Feb 24H · Brentford1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Crystal Palace15 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
6
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Manchester City15 games · scored 35 · conceded 16
4
0-15
5
2
16-30
9
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
1
0-15
4
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
1
0-15
6
4
16-30
8
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
