Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Eintracht Frankfurt
8th · 27 pts · 19 played
DDLDL
1–3Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 32 pts · 18 played
WWLLW
Eintracht Frankfurt22.7%fair odds 4.41
Draw23.4%fair odds 4.28
Bayer Leverkusen54.0%fair odds 1.85
Expected goals1.17 – 1.91total 3.08
Likeliest score1–110.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayer Leverkusen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Eintracht Frankfurt ↓ · Bayer Leverkusen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Eintracht Frankfurt goals, columns Bayer Leverkusen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%9.24
- 1–29.8%10.20
- 0–28.4%11.96
- 0–18.2%12.16
- 1–36.2%16.05
- 2–16.0%16.59
- 2–25.7%17.40
- 0–35.3%18.81
- 0–05.1%19.44
- 1–04.8%20.63
Winning margin
2.8%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 35.64
6.3%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 15.92
13.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 7.36
23.4%
Draw
fair 4.28
22.4%
Bayer Leverkusen by 1
fair 4.46
16.6%
Bayer Leverkusen by 2
fair 6.02
14.9%
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+
fair 6.71
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Bayer Leverkusen goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 22.7% | 23.3% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 23.4% | 25.0% | -1.7 pp |
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 54.0% | 51.7% | +2.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 53.2% | +6.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.3% | 55.0% | +4.4 pp |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.17 | 1.08 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen | 1.91 | 1.72 | +0.18 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Eintracht Frankfurt win22.7%4.41
- Draw23.4%4.28
- Bayer Leverkusen win54.0%1.85
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw46.0%2.17
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or Bayer Leverkusen76.6%1.30
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw77.3%1.29
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt29.6%3.38
- Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen70.4%1.42
Goals
- Over 0.594.9%1.05
- Over 1.581.8%1.22
- Over 2.559.4%1.68
- Over 3.537.1%2.70
- Over 4.519.8%5.05
- Under 1.518.2%5.49
- Under 2.540.6%2.46
- Under 3.562.9%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes59.3%1.69
- No40.7%2.46
- Yes and over 2.548.5%2.06
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes13.0%7.71
- Draw and yes18.2%5.49
- Bayer Leverkusen win and yes28.1%3.55
Team goals
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.569.0%1.45
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.532.7%3.06
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.511.5%8.73
- Bayer Leverkusen over 0.585.1%1.17
- Bayer Leverkusen over 1.556.8%1.76
- Bayer Leverkusen over 2.529.8%3.35
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet14.9%6.73
- Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet31.0%3.23
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil9.7%10.30
- Bayer Leverkusen win to nil25.8%3.87
Handicap
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.59.1%11.01
- Eintracht Frankfurt −2.52.8%35.64
- Bayer Leverkusen +1.590.9%1.10
- Bayer Leverkusen +2.597.2%1.03
- Bayer Leverkusen −1.531.5%3.17
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.568.5%1.46
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored171
Favourite won56.1%
Avg chance given to result42.9%
1X2 Brier0.563
Over 2.5 called right62.6%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 38.2% | 44.0% |
| 40–50% | 54 | 45.1% | 42.6% |
| 50–60% | 45 | 55.1% | 57.8% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.9% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 74.3% | 76.9% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 86.7% | 71.4% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 151 of 171 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5549 | 0.5485 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.4% | 43.1% |
| Favourite won | 57.6% | 57.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 151 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3 1899 Hoffenheim45·26·30
- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 1–0 Werder Bremen64·20·16
- ✓FSV Mainz 05 3–1 VfL Wolfsburg45·26·29
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 171 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.