Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Eintracht Frankfurt
8th · 27 pts · 19 played
DDLDL
1–3Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 32 pts · 18 played
WWLLW
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayer Leverkusen. Eintracht Frankfurt had 7 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 7 and had to travel 157 km.
Away travel157 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Eintracht Frankfurt23%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen54%
Eintracht Frankfurt29%
Draw27%
Bayer Leverkusen44%
Eintracht Frankfurt23%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen54%
Eintracht Frankfurt17%
Draw21%
Bayer Leverkusen62%
Eintracht Frankfurt23%
Draw25%
Bayer Leverkusen52%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Schröder
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 64
Team strength
Eintracht FrankfurtBayer Leverkusen
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
77
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
78
54
AttackIn forecast
87
37
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Eintracht FrankfurtBayer Leverkusen
2.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.94
2.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.77
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
89%
Scored inContext
83%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
11.84
ShotsContext
13.72
4.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
37%
On target shareContext
35%
8.16
Shots in the boxContext
8.72
69%
Box shareContext
63%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
1.69
OffsidesContext
1.36
11.84
Shots allowedContext
12.06
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.50
BlocksContext
3.13
2.65
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.59
53%
Save rateContext
72%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
475
PassesContext
595
391
Accurate passesContext
528
82%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.99
10.32
FoulsContext
8.89
9.63
Fouls sufferedContext
10.72
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.56
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.40
ShotsContext
15.00
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
44%
On target shareContext
33%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
74%
Box shareContext
64%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
2.80
OffsidesContext
1.25
13.80
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.78
BlocksContext
3.29
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
56%
Save rateContext
77%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
410
PassesContext
596
324
Accurate passesContext
527
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.59
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.50
FoulsContext
7.90
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel157 km479 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 157 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 479 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
40Kauã Santos(G)
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
5A. Amenda
21N. Brown
15E. Skhiri
16H. Larsson
13R. Kristensen
27M. Götze
20R. Doan
25A. Kalimuendo
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
28J. Blaswich(G)
12E. Tapsoba
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
6E. Fernández
13Arthur
11M. Terrier
10M. Tillman
35Christian Kofane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt · Home
1.56points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-3
- Scored
- 1.78
- Conceded
- 1.67
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
1.63points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-3
- Scored
- 1.88
- Conceded
- 1.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 HW 3–1 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 3–3 AW 4–1 H | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–3 A | L 1–4 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–6 A | W 3–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 4–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 H | W 4–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 1–1 A | W 6–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 6–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Union Berlin | L 3–4 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 26 of 51 · 1.53 per game | 29 of 51 · 1.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Eintracht Frankfurt wins0 draws7 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game1.67 – 2.78
Over 2.589%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets0% · 22%
- 12 Sep 2025Bayer Leverkusen3–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 1 Mar 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–4Bayer Leverkusen
- 19 Oct 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 5 May 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–5Bayer Leverkusen
- 17 Dec 2023Bayer Leverkusen3–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 8 Apr 2023Bayer Leverkusen3–1Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.05 | 1.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.21 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 4.26 | 3.33 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 61% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 74% | 56% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 17% | |
| Games | 19 | 18 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.10 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.41 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 8.29 | 9.67 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 8/17 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 7/17 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 4/17 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.16 | 2.72 | |
| Match total | 3.79 | 5.05 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 11/19 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 7/19 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.71 | 6.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.71 | 9.90 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.40 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Schröder Germany · 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 3.73
Red cards0.17league 0.18
Cards 5+45%league 39%
Fouls23.7league 21.0
Penalties0.34league 0.33
Home wins48%league 44%
Eintracht Frankfurt4 with this referee
Record0-3-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D11 May 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–10
- D29 Oct 23H · Borussia Dortmund3–33
- D13 Nov 22A · FSV Mainz 051–12
- L8 Jan 22H · Borussia Dortmund2–33
Bayer Leverkusen3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W23 Aug 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–20
- L19 Feb 23H · FSV Mainz 052–36
- W6 Nov 22H · Union Berlin5–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eintracht Frankfurt19 games · scored 39 · conceded 42
4
7
0-15
8
4
16-30
8
5
31-45
8
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
7
13
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen18 games · scored 35 · conceded 25
6
3
0-15
7
4
16-30
9
9
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 14 · conceded 26
3
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
7
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
7
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
